距离选举日还有三周，参议院战场正在扩大。MS NOW将堪萨斯州列为“倾向共和党”，明尼苏达州列为“倾向民主党”，将两个曾经看起来较为稳固的席位拉入竞争态势。
With three weeks to go until Election Day, the Senate battlefield is getting bigger. MS NOW is moving Kansas to “lean Republican” and Minnesota to “lean Democratic,” pulling two seats that once looked more secure into competitive territory.
上个月，堪萨斯州被列入我们需要关注的竞选名单，当时我们将其归类为“可能共和党”。虽然我们仍认为共和党在捍卫此席位上占优，但若干因素已将其推入更具竞争性的类别：倾向共和党。
Kansas joined our list of races to watch last month, when we categorized it as “likely Republican.”While we still give the GOP the edge in defending this seat, several factors have moved it into a more competitive category: lean Republican.
其一，民调持续显示民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿与现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔势均力敌。正如我们几周前所解释的，全国形势对共和党而言已足够严峻，以至于即便是像堪萨斯州这样红色的州，今年也可能以个位数差距决定胜负。汉密尔顿是一位知名的卫理公会牧师，看来是一位强有力的提名人；而马歇尔一直在应对关于他过去医疗账单做法的质疑，正如MS NOW最近报道的，还有他的竞选财务问题。
For one, polling continues to show Democrat Adam Hamilton neck and neck with incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall. As we explained a few weeks ago, the national environment looks bleak enough for the GOP that even a state as red as Kansas could be decided by single digits this year. Hamilton, a well-known United Methodist pastor, appears to be a strong nominee, while Marshall has been fending off questions about his past medical billing practices and, as MS NOW recently reported, his campaign finances.
即便如此，民调显示汉密尔顿与马歇尔持平甚至略占上风，这在特朗普以16个百分点赢得该州的情况下仍显引人注目。
Even so, it is striking that polls have shown Hamilton tied or even slightly ahead of Marshall in a state Trump won by 16 points.
然而，民调也值得谨慎对待。2024年支持特朗普的选举者比支持卡马拉·哈里斯的选举者更可能持犹豫态度——这一模式在最近的《纽约时报*/锡纳和尤戈夫民调中可见一斑。如果这些犹豫不决的选举者最终按照过去的投票倾向转向马歇尔，他仍有机会再赢得几个百分点。
The polls do warrant some caution, however. Voters who backed Trump in 2024 are more likely to be undecided than those who supported Kamala Harris — a pattern visible in recent New York Times/Siena and YouGov polls. If those undecided voters ultimately break toward Marshall, in line with their past votes, he has room to gain a few points.
民调还显示相当程度的分票投票，共和党州长候选人泰·马斯特森的支持率领先于马歇尔。但更大的问题是：在一个近一个世纪未选出民主党参议员的州，究竟会有多少选举者会支持共和党州长候选人同时又支持民主党参议员候选人？虽然近年来中期选举的民调相当准确，但各州个别民调常常会有几个百分点的偏差。不难想象，民调机构可能再次在接触可靠的共和党选民方面遇到困难。
The polls also show a fair amount of ticket-splitting, with Republican gubernatorial candidate Ty Masterson running ahead of Marshall. But the bigger question is how many voters will back a Republican for governor and Democrat for Senate in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century. And while midterm polling has been fairly accurate in recent cycles, polls in individual states often miss by several points. It is not hard to imagine that pollsters are once again struggling to reach reliably Republican voters.
选民登记趋势为民主党提供了另一个略带鼓励的信号。全州范围内，共和党人的人数多于民主党人，比例为45%对26%。但最近几个月表明，民主党方面出现了一些活力：根据堪萨斯州州务卿办公室的数据，在8月和9月，民主党在新登记人数上以2比1的优势领先于共和党。虽然新登记人数相比共和党的整体优势只是沧海一粟，但这与2022年同期的情况 markedly 不同——当时共和党在同一时期的新登记人数上领先于民主党。
Voter registration trends offer Democrats another somewhat encouraging sign. Statewide,ed Republicans outnumbered Democrats, 45% to 26%. But recent months have suggested some energy on the Democratic side: Democrats outpaced Republicans in new registrations by a 2-to-1 margin in August and September, according to the Kansas Secretary of State’s office. While the new registrants are just a drop in the bucket compared to Republicans’ overall advantage, it is a markedly different pattern than in 2022, when Republicans outpaced Democrats during the same period.
堪萨斯州还拥有一大批无党派选民，他们很可能在决定最终胜负差距方面发挥重要作用。民意调查显示，这些无党派选民倾向于支持汉密尔顿。
Kansas also has a sizable pool of unaffiliated voters, who are likely to play a big role in determining the final margin. Polls suggest they favor Hamilton.
最后，共和党及其关联团体的行为表明，他们认为堪萨斯州确实具有竞争力。副总统JD·万斯上个月访问了该州，以拉动支持；参议院领导基金政治行动委员会（Senate Leadership Fund PAC）在9月下旬开始在这场竞选中大规模投入资金。根据AdImpact的数据，该委员会目前已预订价值超过1000万美元的广告时段。这可能反映出他们持谨慎态度，因为波动选举常常带来意外的冷门结果，有利于不在执政党一方的政党。无论如何，共和党感到有必要在这类选区巩固支持，这一点本身就很值得注意。
Finally, Republicans and their affiliated groups are acting like Kansas is truly competitive. Vice President JD Vance visited the state last month to rally support, and the Senate Leadership Fund PAC started spending big on this race in late September. It now has more than $10 million in ad time reserved, according to AdImpact. That may reflect an abundance of caution, since wave elections often bring surprise upsets that benefit the party out of power. Either way, it is remarkable that Republicans feel the need to shore up support in a seat like this one at all.
从纸面上看，在当前环境下，明尼苏达州本应成为民主党轻松保有的州：该州超过20年未选举出共和党参议员，超过50年未投票支持共和党总统候选人。对于希望重夺参议院多数席位的民主党而言，这里也是一个必须赢下的关键战场。然而，民意调查持续显示，这场参议员空缺职位的竞选对共和党来说仍具竞争力。这正是我们将该州从“民主党大概率获胜”调整为“民主党倾向获胜”的主要原因。
On paper, Minnesota should be an easy hold for Democrats in the current environment: It has not elected a Republican senator in more than 20 years, and it has not voted Republican for president in more than 50. It is also a must-win for Democrats hoping to retake the Senate majority. But polling has consistently shown this open-seat race within reach for Republicans. That is the main reason we are moving it from “likely Democratic” to “lean Democratic.”
随着参议员蒂娜·史密斯退休，民主党在此并无现任官员的连任优势。相反，该州与民主党领导层之间或许还存在某种关联性。进步派副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根在8月的党内初选中击败了中间派众议员安吉·克雷格。但与此同时，该州的社会服务丑闻也可能构成挑战——这一事件已对州长蒂姆·沃尔茨的政治形象造成打击，而弗拉纳根或许难以与此完全撇清关系。
With Sen. Tina Smith retiring, Democrats have no incumbency advantage here. If anything, there might be a bit of a being linked to Democratic leadership in the state. Progressive Lt Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the party’s August primary over centrist Rep. Angie Craig. But it is also possible that the state’s social services scandal, which has cost Gov. Tim Walz politically, could also pose a challenge, and Flanagan may struggle to distance herself from it.
共和党候选人米歇尔·塔福亚是一位知名的前NFL记者，她已就这一问题对弗拉纳根展开猛烈攻击。
Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, a well-known former NFL reporter, has been hammering Flanagan over the issue.
这场竞选的民意调查并不多，但现有的有限数据表明竞争十分胶着。弗拉纳根平均领先塔福亚约四个百分点——与2024年哈里斯在该州获胜时相近的微弱差距。自那时以来，美国整体明显向左转。
There has not been much polling in this race, but what little there is shows a close contest. Flanagan leads Tafoya by about four points, on average — the same modest margin by which Harris won the state in 2024. The country has clearly shifted to the left since then.
除了全国范围内的经济不满情绪外，特朗普政府向明尼苏达州部署移民与海关执法局特工后，该州还出现了涉及联邦特工的社会动荡和暴力事件。这些发展本应导致更强烈的向左转向。然而，民意调查却显示这一转变相对温和。同样这些调查还表明，弗拉纳根的得票率比民主党州长候选人艾米·克洛布彻低几个百分点，而后者很可能接替沃尔茨成为新任州长。
On top of nationwide economic discontent, Minnesota has seen social unrest and violence involving federal agents following the Trump administration’s deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to the state. Those developments have meant an even stronger leftward swing. Instead, polls suggest a more muted shift. The same polls show Flanagan running a few points behind Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, who looks likely to succeed Walz.
我们无法确切知道今年的民意调查会出现怎样的误差。它们是否可能在明尼苏达州低估了民主党的实力，而在堪萨斯州又高估了它？当然有可能，但我们要等到选举日才能知道。这就是为什么我们把民意调查视为一种有参考价值的信号，但不是最终结论。今年这两个州都可能出现激烈竞争，但它们最近的选举历史为执政党提供了一种我们无法忽视的基本优势。
We do not know precisely how polls will err this year. Is it possible they are understating Democratic strength in Minnesota, while overstating it in Kansas? Absolutely, but we will not know until Election Day. That is why we treat polling as an informative signal, but not the final word. Both states could be competitive this year, but their recent electoral history gives the incumbent party a baseline advantage we cannot ignore.