作者：史蒂文·T丹尼斯无党派库克政治报告周二称，民主党控制美国参议院的道路在选举日前四周继续扩大，曾经坚定保守的堪萨斯州现在被认为是一场势均力敌的竞选。
The Democratic Party’s path to controlling the US Senate continues to widen four weeks before Election Day, with once solidly conservative Kansas now considered a tossup race, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said Tuesday.
民主党已经94年没有在堪萨斯州赢得参议院席位了，但该党在大型教堂牧师亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）中的强大新兵以及对唐纳德·特朗普总统关税政策和伊朗战争的经济焦虑，使这个农业国家发挥了作用。
Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in Kansas in 94 years, but the party’s strong recruit in megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton and economic angst over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the Iran war have put the agricultural state in play.
《纽约时报》/锡耶纳周末公布的一项民意调查显示，汉密尔顿与现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔在可能的选民中并列。
A New York Times/Siena poll released over the weekend showed Hamilton tied with incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall among likely voters.
《库克政治报告》的参议院和州长编辑杰西卡·泰勒写道：“由于燃油价格上涨和生活成本持续居高不下，唐纳德·特朗普总统即使在深红色州也是一个全面的拖累。”
“President Donald Trump is a drag across the board even in deep red states due to rising fuel prices and the persistent high cost of living,” wrote Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Report’s Senate and governors editor.
库克现在估计民主党将在11月3日的中期选举中获得两到六个参议院席位。他们需要净增加四个席位才能赢得多数席位。
Cook now estimates Democrats will pick up two to six Senate seats in the Nov. 3 midterms. They need a net pickup of four seats to win the majority.
共和党在参议院地图上的亮点是新罕布什尔州，该席位现在由即将退休的民主党参议员珍妮·沙欣占据。库克最近几周将竞选转向共和党，但周二又将其重新转向“倾向民主党”。
The Republicans’ bright spot on the Senate map had been New Hampshire, a seat now held by retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Cook had shifted that race toward Republicans in recent weeks but moved it back to “lean Democrat” on Tuesday.
在共和党人汤姆·蒂利斯即将退休的北卡罗来纳州，民主党人罗伊·库珀和共和党人迈克尔·沃特利之间的竞选从“精干的民主党人”转移到“可能的民主党人”。一位知情人士上周表示，参议院领导基金已经在沃特利与库珀的竞选中花费了3200万美元，但没有计划进一步支出，并将取消现有的保留。
In North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis is retiring, the race between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley was moved from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat.”The Senate Leadership Fund, which already spent $32 million on Whatley’s race against Cooper, has no plans to spend further and will cancel existing reservations, a person familiar with the situation said last week.
相对于民主党拥有现金优势的共和党人仍然希望在密歇根州翻转一个席位并在缅因州重新选举苏珊·柯林斯，这将缩小民主党获得多数席位的潜在途径。
Republicans, who have a cash advantage over the Democratic Party, still have hopes of flipping a seat in Michigan and reelecting Susan Collins in Maine, which would narrow the Democrats’ potential pathway to the majority.
泰勒写道：“但全国范围内反对总统政党的势头仍然存在，他们在不到一个月的时间里就可以扭转局面。”
“But the momentum nationally remains against the president’s party, with less than a month for them to right the ship,” Taylor wrote.
内布拉斯加州和南卡罗来纳州等其他传统共和党据点也变得更具竞争力。
Other traditional Republican strongholds, including Nebraska and South Carolina, have also become more competitive.