《库克政治报告》，一家选举分析机构，将其在堪萨斯、北卡罗来纳和新罕布什州参议院选举的赔率向民主党方向调整。这些变化显示了当前不利的政治环境对共和党候选人的持续影响，尤其是在伊朗战争和经济状况背景下。这些选举变得更加激烈，可能会为民主党夺回参议院多数席位带来乐观情绪。
The Cook Political Report, an election handicapper, is shifting its odds for Senate races in Kansas, North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats. The changes show how unfavorable the political environment continues to be for Republican candidates amid the war in Iran and the state of the economy. These races being more competitive could spell optimism for Democrats in their chances to retake the Senate majority.
“此时此刻的问题不是民主党是否会增选席位，而是会增选多少席，”《库克政治报告》的参议院和州长编辑杰西卡·泰勒（Jessica Taylor）表示。“因此，我们将民主党可能夺取席位的估计调整为2至6席，这正好落在他们夺回多数席位所需的4席范围之内。”
“At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at Cook. “As such, we are revising our estimate of potential pickups to two to six seats for Democrats — squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net for a majority."
堪萨斯州的选情，此前被认为是稳定的共和党州，如近几周逐渐紧咬。亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton），一位牧师兼该国最大的联合方法论教会的创始人，以温和派民主党人的身份参选，希望击败共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）。汉密尔顿抨击马歇尔与特朗普的关系以及 unpopular的伊朗战争，而马歇尔试图将汉密尔顿塑造为“ woke”，声称他支持将社会自由主义应用于基督教神学。
The Kansas race, once thought reliably red, has picked up steam in recent weeks. Adam Hamilton, a pastor and founder of the largest United Methodist church in the country, is running as a moderate Democrat, hoping to unseat Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas). Hamilton has attacked Marshall over his connection to Trump and the unpopular war in Iran, while Marshall has aimed to paint Hamilton as “woke,” claiming he supports a socially liberal approach to Christian theology.
民意调查显示，汉密尔顿和马歇尔势均力敌，这对于一个近一个世纪没有送来民主党参议员的州来说尤为重要。
Polls show Hamilton and Marshall neck and neck, significant for a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.
全国共和党人已经注意到这一点：他们正在从北卡罗来纳州撤出资金，转而支持马歇尔在堪萨斯州的竞选。北卡罗来纳州也似乎比以往任何时候都更有利于民主党。前州长罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）在整个夏天的民意调查中 consistently领先于共和党政治运营人士迈克尔·沃瑟利（Michael Whatley）。近日双党在该州的投入有所减少，这表明其作为战场州的地位正在减弱。
National Republicans have noticed: They’re pulling money out of North Carolina and putting it in Kansas to back Marshall. North Carolina also seems more favorable to Democrats than ever. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has been polling significantly ahead of Republican political operative Michael Whatley for much of the summer. Both parties have lessened their investment in that state in recent days, a sign that its battleground status is waning.
新罕布什州的选情变化值得注意，因为《库克政治报告》上个月将其评级调整为“搅局局”，并倾向于共和党。民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯（Chris Pappas）正在竞选这一由退任参议员腾出的席位。
The race rating change for New Hampshire is notable, as Cook moved it to “toss-up” in Republicans’ favor last month. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is running for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), while former Sen. John Sununu, a Republican who served one term in the chamber 18 years ago, is looking for a comeback.
珍妮·萨赫恩（D-新罕布什尔州），而前共和党参议员约翰·苏诺，他在18年前在参议院任职一届，正在寻求复出。但尽管苏诺来自显赫的政治家庭，而帕帕斯则知名度较低，新罕布什尔州（“石岩州”）对民主党人再次表现友好。9月末的两次民调，一次来自美国老年人协会（AARP），另一次来自一个共和党民调组织，都显示帕帕斯领先7票。
But while Sununu hails from a prominent political family and Pappas is lesser known, the Granite State is looking friendly to Democrats again. Two polls at the tail end of September, one from AARP and one from a Republican polling group, both had Pappas up by 7.