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中国纳税人如今欠税更多。他们被欠的也更多吗?Chinese taxpayers now owe more. Is more owed to them?

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在逃税者中,从阿尔·卡彭到克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多,吴华涛并不显眼。但这位小规模推销员因其胆大妄为值得被关注。据上海税务局称,吴华涛每年收入约55万元人民币(约合8.2万美元),但仅申报了9000元。他还声称自己是远洋船员以申请免税,实际上他是个陆地人。随后,当税务官员致电他时,他拉黑了他们的电话。

Among tax evaders, from Al Capone to Cristiano Ronaldo, Wu Huatao hardly stands out. Still the small-time salesman deserves recognition for his brazenness. According to the Shanghai tax bureau, Mr Wu earned about 550,000 yuan ($82,000) per year but reported just 9,000 yuan. He also claimed an exemption as an ocean-going seafarer when he was, in fact, a landlubber. Then, when tax officials called him, he blocked their numbers.

最终,当局还是抓住了他。在对吴华涛进行他们亲切描述为“面对面教育”的所得税政策培训后,他承认了自己的过错,补缴了税款和罚款。这只是中国打击逃税的众多类似案例之一。一个重要的截止日期临近:10月22日,富裕的中国人必须遵守针对离岸信托的新税收规定,否则将面临滞纳金。税收征管热情的自然提升引发了经济问题。

The authorities ultimately got their man. After they had subjected Mr Wu to what they caringly described as “face-to-face education” on income-tax policy, he fessed up to his misdeeds and paid his taxes and fines. This is just one of many similar cases as China cracks down on evasion. A big deadline looms on October 22nd when wealthy Chinese must comply with a new tax on offshore trusts or face late-payment penalties. The heightened enthusiasm for tax collection naturally raises economic questions.

这是否反映出财政紧张的国家?很可能。需要额外收入来弥合巨额预算缺口。这些规定会不会吓到中国投资者?有可能。但许多投资者只能留在国内市场。谁将获益最大?答案很明确:税务顾问。然而,还有一个更具爆炸性的角度值得考虑:共产党是否因过度推行税收而面临政治风险。目前尚无人将绿茶投入宁波港进行抗议。

Does it reflect a state that is strapped for cash? Probably. Extra revenue is needed to plug gaping budget holes. Might the rules spook Chinese investors? Possibly. But many are captive in their home market. Who will benefit the most? That is easy: tax advisers. Yet there is a separate, more combustible angle to consider: whether the Communist Party faces any political risk from pushing too hard on taxation. No one is throwing green tea into Ningbo’s harbour for now.

但就像世界各地的纳税人一样,中国纳税人希望知道政府不是浪费钱财。而对预算问责的要求,对一个排斥民众代表性的政权来说,令人不安。因此,中国官员的诀窍在于确保资金流入国库,而不让人们过多关注他们所谓的纳税人权利。中国的财政体系早已被校准以实现这一目标。个人所得税占GDP的比重约为1%,而富裕国家的平均水平为8%。

But Chinese taxpayers, like those anywhere, want to know that the government is not wasteful. And demands for budget accountability are discomfiting for a regime allergic to popular representation. So the trick for Chinese officials is to ensure that cash flows into state coffers without prompting people to dwell on their putative rights as taxpayers. China’s fiscal system has long been calibrated to do just that. Personal income tax is equivalent to about 1% of GDP, compared with an 8% average in rich countries.

门槛设得如此之高,以至于只有6500万人——即劳动力的十分之一——需要缴纳任何税款。中国通过间接税收部分弥补了这一不足,尤其是增值税(VAT),它被直接计入消费者支付的价格中。中国还拥有非税收入,主要来自土地出售。这些因素综合起来,使得中国能够以非常低的程度提取资源,以至于人们几乎感觉不到负担。

Thresholds are so high that only 65m people—a tenth of the workforce—pay any at all. China makes up for this partly with indirect taxation, especially a value-added tax (VAT) that is baked into prices for consumers. It also has non-tax revenues, mainly from land sales. Taken together, these let China extract resources so thinly that people do not feel the pinch.

北京大学的张昌东曾主张,绝大多数人甚至不知道自己到底缴纳了多少税——对党而言,这正是一种幸福的无知。然而,该体系存在缺陷。当消费税被如此严重地依赖时,它会对穷人造成沉重打击,因为他们将收入的更大比例用于消费。富裕阶层在理论上应承担远更高的所得税,但他们拥有众多漏洞来减轻税负——直到最近,离岸信托仍是其中之一。

Zhang Changdong of Peking University has argued that the vast majority do not know what they pay in taxes—blissful ignorance as far as the party is concerned. Yet the system has flaws. When consumption taxes are relied on so heavily, they hit poor people hard because they spend a bigger share of their incomes. The wealthy technically face much higher income taxes but have many loopholes to reduce their bills—including, until recently, offshore trusts.

对政府而言,更紧迫的问题是,税收结构已无法筹集足够的收入。地方政府曾依赖土地出售作为主要收入来源,如今在持续的房地产低迷中,面临着预算赤字的不断扩大。正是这一点,使得新的税收行动如此重要。过去,官员们曾针对个别名人下手,例如演员范冰冰,她在2018年被命令缴纳高达8.83亿元人民币的税款,以此表明富人也不得逍遥法外。

More pressing for the government, the tax structure no longer raises enough revenue. Local authorities, which had relied on land sales for much of their income, now face widening budget deficits amid a prolonged property slump. That is what makes the new taxation drive so significant. Previously officials went after the odd celebrity, such as Fan Bingbing, an actress ordered to pay a whopping 883m yuan in 2018, to show that the wealthy are not a law unto themselves.

如今,中国的税收力度大幅加强。几乎所有交易都已数字化,税务部门也提升了对数据的解析能力——这一系统被称为“金税四期”。他们会仔细审查银行对账单以及支付宝和微信——中国两大数字钱包——上的交易记录。所有这些监控行为,还得益于与许多其他国家税务机关的合作。过去一年里,拥有境外账户的人们在其个人所得税应用中收到了警告提醒,要求其遵守法律。超级富豪可能需要缴纳天文数字般的税款,其规模甚至足以动摇金融市场。

Now China’s taxation efforts are much broader. Virtually every transaction is digital, and authorities have honed their technology for parsing the data—a system known as Golden Tax Phase IV. They comb through bank statements and transactions on Alipay and WeChat, China’s main digital wallets. All of this monitoring is buttressed by co-operation with tax agencies in many other countries. Over the past year people with foreign accounts have received alerts in their income-tax apps warning them to comply with laws. The ultra-rich could owe mammoth sums, enough to unsettle financial markets.

海底捞联合创始人舒萍于九月出售了近5%的股份,价值约27.5亿港元(3.5亿美元)。公司称其出于个人资金需求;分析师怀疑是为了缴纳税款。海底捞股价因而下跌超过10%。其他老板——尤其是那些海外上市表明其财富可能离岸持有的——也可能面临巨额补税。

Shu Ping, a co-founder of Haidilao, a hotpot chain, sold a nearly 5% stake in September, worth about HK$2.75bn ($350m). The firm cited personal funding needs; analysts suspected a tax bill. Haidilao’s shares fell by more than 10%. Other bosses—especially those whose foreign listings suggest wealth held offshore—may also be in line for hefty back taxes.

读我的嘴一位私募基金经理最近向《茶馆》抱怨说,他的税单让他措手不及。政府对海外信托的新规并未豁免现有安排;它对已有安排追溯征税。但他只能接受现实,乖乖缴纳。政府指望几件事:富人除非改变国籍、放弃在中国的商业和资产,否则真的无处可逃;而大多数人口将保持不受影响,甚至可能乐见更幸运的同胞乖乖缴税。

Read my lipsA private-equity manager recently moaned to Chaguan that his tax bill had blindsided him. The government’s new rule on overseas trusts did not exempt existing arrangements; it had applied the tax retroactively. But he had to resign himself to paying up. The government is counting on a couple of things. The rich do not really have anywhere to run, short of changing their citizenship and abandoning their businesses and assets in China. And most of the population will remain untouched, and indeed might enjoy seeing more fortunate compatriots paying up.

然而,倒霉的逃税推销员吴某提醒人们,税收网并不仅限于大亨。任何有副业收入或海外券商账户的人,如今都逃不过税务机关的眼睛。这正是许多中产阶级中国人的写照——正是他们最可能开始琢磨:自己纳税到底得到了什么回报。2000年代初,官方媒体偶尔赞赏“纳税人意识”——即纳税人应当对公共财政拥有某种监督权。

Yet Mr Wu, the hapless tax-evading salesman, is a reminder that the dragnet does not stop at tycoons. Anyone with side income or a foreign brokerage account is now visible to tax authorities. That describes many middle-class Chinese, precisely those who are likely to wonder what they are getting in return. In the early 2000s state media occasionally spoke approvingly of “taxpayer consciousness”—the idea that those paying taxes ought to have some oversight of public budgets.

随着国家对媒体的控制收紧,这种说法逐渐淡出。取而代之的是强调纳税人的义务,而非权利。北京税务局最近将管理公众情绪列为新改革的关键部分之一——这是一种婉转说法,意为在批评萌芽阶段就予以扼杀。

Such talk has faded as the state has tightened its grip on the media. Instead of taxpayers’ rights, the emphasis has been on their duties. Beijing’s tax office recently listed managing public sentiment as a key part of the new reforms—a euphemism for nipping criticism in the bud.

从财政角度看,转向更直接的税收对中国是正确的,这有望建立一个更公平、更可持续的体制。但在政治层面,这是一次经过算计的赌注。中国正在让税收机构在日常生活中变得更大、更具侵入性。缴纳更多税款的人往往会提出更多要求。

Fiscally, a shift to more direct taxation is right for China, promising a system that is fairer and more sustainable. Politically, it is a calculated gamble. China is making the taxman a bigger, and more intrusive, presence in everyday life. People who pay more tend to ask for more.