大理,中国——几个月来,马永健一直没有告诉父母自己在哪里。去年,正在攻读计算机科学硕士学位的27岁的他停止了上课。软件工程曾经是一个安全的职业选择,但人工智能的兴起以及中国科技公司的一波裁员潮,让马永健相信自己找不到好工作。他不再觉得学习有什么意义。当室友们每天早上离开宿舍时,马永健就会在北京漫步,坐在公园里看着流浪猫。
DALI, China—For months, Ma Yongjian didn’t tell his parents where he was. Halfway through a master’s degree in computer science, the 27-year-old stopped going to class last year. Software engineering used to be a safe career choice, but the rise of artificial intelligence and a wave of layoffs at Chinese tech companies left Ma convinced he wouldn’t be able to land a good job. He no longer saw the point of studying. When his roommates left their dorm each morning, Ma would wander Beijing, sitting in parks and looking at stray cats.
今年早些时候,他逃到了大理——中国云南省以风景优美的山脉和悠闲生活节奏而闻名的漂泊者聚集地。他的父母以为他还在读研究生。他不想让他们担心。“以前,大家都以为生活会一直变好,收入会一直增长。现在情况不同了,”马永健说。“当你展望未来时,几乎没有希望。”在中国繁荣时期出生的一代人如今步入成年,却面临机遇减少、竞争加剧以及日益增长的绝望感——多年的努力工作并未让他们比父母过得更好,对一些人而言,甚至又回到了父母身边居住。
Earlier this year, he escaped to Dali, a magnet for drifters in China’s Yunnan province known for its scenic mountains and slow pace of life. His parents thought he was still in grad school. He didn’t want to worry them.“Before, everyone expected life would keep getting better, your income would keep growing. Now, it’s different,” said Ma. “When you look at the future, there isn’t much hope.”A generation born during China’s boom years is now entering adulthood with dwindling opportunities, fiercer competition and a growing sense of despondency that years of hard work have left them no better off than their parents—and, for some, back living with them.
稳定的工作难以找到,数以百万计的人被推入不稳定的零工经济,而另一些人则在残酷的工作文化中崩溃。经济疲软导致就业市场萎缩,正值创纪录数量的大学毕业生准备开始职业生涯。人工智能的快速普及正在加剧这种不确定性。许多顶尖雇主,包括阿里巴巴和字节跳动等科技巨头,一直在悄悄裁员。尽管这些公司没有公开将裁员归咎于人工智能,但知情人士表示,技术因素确实起到了作用。
Steady jobs are hard to get, pushing millions into the precarious gig economy, while others buckle under a cutthroat work culture.A weakened economy has shrunk the job market, just as record numbers of college graduates are looking to start their careers. The rapid adoption of AI is adding to the uncertainty. Many top employers, including tech giants Alibaba and ByteDance, have been quietly cutting staff. Although the companies aren’t publicly blaming AI, the technology has been a factor, people familiar with the matter say.
其他行业,从电影制作到金融,也在利用人工智能来缩减招聘规模。北京已经全力推动这项技术,敦促企业快速拥抱人工智能,以使经济更具竞争力。
Other industries, from filmmaking to finance, are using AI to scale back hiring. Beijing has gone all in on the technology, urging companies to rapidly embrace AI to make the economy more competitive.
但也有迹象表明,官员们也日益担心其对社会稳定的影响。熟悉情况的人士表示,他们警告雇主在采用人工智能时不要裁员。这些警告是在去年副总理何立峰对中国最大的雇主进行调查之后发出的,一些雇主估计人工智能可能会消灭他们30%或更多的现有岗位。熟悉情况的人士表示,何立峰对这些回应感到震惊。随着失业人数的增加,财务独立、稳定职业、婚姻、为人父母等成年标准对许多Z世代来说变得遥不可及。
But there are signs officials are also growing concerned about the impact on social stability. They’ve warned employers not to cut jobs as they adopt AI, people familiar with the matter say. The warnings came after Vice Premier He Lifeng polled China’s biggest employers last year, and some estimated AI could wipe out 30% or more of their existing roles, the people said. He seemed shaken by the responses, one said. As job losses pile up, the typical milestones of adulthood—financial independence, a stable career, marriage, parenthood—are feeling out of reach for much of Gen Z.The urban jobless rate among 16- to 24-year-olds, excluding students, stands at roughly 19% as of August, compared with about 9% among the same age group in the U.S. It’s 7.5% for those aged 25 to 29, compared with 5.3% in the U.S., and above China’s overall unemployment rate of around 5%.
截至8月,16至24岁城镇青年失业率(不含学生)约为19%,而美国同龄人群的失业率约为9%。25至29岁人群的失业率为7.5%,而美国同龄人群为5.3%,高于中国整体失业率约5%的水平。工资增长停滞。目前,情绪更多是无奈而非愤怒,尤其是许多父母正在帮助承担生活成本。但年轻人的失望情绪有可能硬化成对共产党更危险的东西,比如动乱。
Wage growth has stagnated. For now, the mood is more resignation than anger, especially with many parents pitching in to help with living costs. But there’s a risk young people’s disillusionment could harden into something more dangerous for the Communist Party, like unrest.
这也可能对中国的未来产生更广泛的影响。起步困难面对不确定的前景,年轻人正在推迟结婚。出生率暴跌。一些Z世代只是选择退出,靠储蓄生活。今年早些时候,该国情报机构警告年轻人抵制“躺平”——即做最低限度努力的流行语。27岁的张天表示,她母亲希望她能有一份稳定的工作,结婚生子。但她和交往五年的男朋友目前还没有考虑安定下来的打算。
It could also have broader implications for China’s future. Struggling to startFaced with an uncertain outlook, young people are delaying marriage. The birthrate has plummeted. Some Gen Z are simply checking out, living off savings. Earlier this year, the country’s intelligence agency warned young people to resist “lying flat,” a buzzword for doing the bare minimum. Zhang Tian, 27, said her mother wants her to have a stable job, get married and have children. But she and her boyfriend of five years are nowhere near thinking of settling down.
他们甚至在努力让自己的事业起步。张天的父母出生于20世纪70年代,未上大学,被分配到至今仍在从事的政府相关工作。渴望做更有创意的事情,张天选择了景观建筑专业。
They’re struggling just to get careers off the ground. Zhang’s parents, born in the 1970s, didn’t go to university and were assigned government-related jobs that they still have. Eager to do something more creative, Zhang studied landscape architecture.
考虑到中国房地产市场的蓬勃发展,这似乎是个明智的选择。在她2021年毕业前后,房地产泡沫破裂。在杭州一家房地产开发商的第一份工作干了约六个月后,她被裁员。她最终在上海找到一份行政助理的工作,但月薪约1200美元,比以前低。去年底,她再次失业。“谈恋爱是感情问题,但结婚生孩子是经济问题,”来自上海以北江苏省的张说。“我觉得我们的经济状况还没理顺,所以暂时不考虑结婚。”她和男友程明打算学习人工智能,希望能找到科技类工作。但该行业也不稳定。
It seemed smart given China’s booming real-estate market. Around the time she graduated in 2021, the property bubble burst. About six months into her first job at a real-estate developer in Hangzhou, she was laid off. She eventually landed a role in Shanghai as an administrative assistant, but her salary—roughly $1,200 a month—was lower than before. Late last year, she lost her job again. “Dating and being in a relationship is an emotional matter, but getting married and having kids is a financial one,” said Zhang, who is from Jiangsu province north of Shanghai. “I don’t think we’ve sorted out our financial situation yet, so we aren’t considering getting married yet.”She and her boyfriend, Cheng Ming, plan to study AI in hopes of finding tech jobs. But that sector is unstable, too.
程明在两家房地产公司先后被裁员后,开始上网课学习软件知识。他在一家小型科技公司找到一份销售工作——却眼看着公司破产。他在4月再次被裁员。“内心深处,有一种被社会压得喘不过气的感觉,”程明说,“一种无奈感。”“相当严峻”核心问题是中国没有创造足够多稳定、高薪的工作岗位。近年来整体经济增长疲软,增速显著慢于疫情前。
Cheng, after getting laid off from two real-estate firms, started taking online classes to learn about software. He landed a role in sales at a small tech company—only to see the firm go bankrupt. He was laid off yet again in April.“Inside, there’s a feeling of being weighed down by society,” Cheng said, “a sense of resignation.”‘Fairly bleak’The central problem is that China isn’t creating enough stable, high-paying jobs. Overall economic growth has been weak in recent years, expanding at a significantly slower pace than before the pandemic.
尽管北京青睐的少数行业(如机器人)蓬勃发展,但它们的劳动力需求有限。许多年轻人不愿在工厂苦干,工厂无法提供大学毕业生追求的那种声望或工作环境——而且正在迅速用机器人取代工人。北京出于各种原因,打击了一些曾吸纳大量毕业生的私营行业,如校外培训机构。
Although a few industries favored by Beijing, such as robotics, are booming, their labor needs are limited. Many young people don’t want to toil in factories, which don’t provide the kind of prestige or work environments college graduates seek—and are rapidly replacing workers with robots. Beijing has, for various reasons, cracked down on some private-sector industries that once absorbed many graduates such as private tutoring companies.
中国经济各地的消费需求低迷,进一步压缩了招聘,因为公司难以赚取足够利润来招聘或提高工资。“这一代人正面临相当严峻的形势,”汇丰银行首席亚洲经济学家弗雷德·诺伊曼说。“高薪岗位将从何而来尚不明朗。”2021年大学毕业后,杰里米·李相对顺利地在一家影视公司找到了第一份工作。他回到学校攻读媒体与传播硕士,希望这能为他的职业发展带来更多机遇。
Muted consumer demand across China’s economy has further cut into hiring as companies struggle to eke out enough profit to hire or raise wages.“This generation is looking at a fairly bleak situation,” said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “It’s not clear where high-paying jobs will come from.”After graduating from college in 2021, Jeremy Li got his first job at a film company relatively smoothly. He went back to school for a master’s in media and communication, hoping it would give him greater opportunity for career growth.
但到他今年1月毕业时,就业市场已经变得更加紧张。28岁的李估计,自去年秋天开始求职以来,他已投递了大约100份简历,但尚未找到合适的工作。他拒绝了两个职位,因为薪资低,年薪约1.1万美元,而且他需要远离家乡。另一份在北京主要新闻机构的工作,他通过了两次笔试和两次面试,成为决赛选手,但最终未获录用。
But by the time he graduated in January, the job market had gotten much tighter. Li, 28, estimated he has applied for roughly 100 jobs since he started his hunt last fall. He hasn’t landed a suitable one yet. He turned down two roles because the pay was low, around $11,000 a year, and he would have had to move far away. For a different job at a major news agency in Beijing, he made it through two writing tests and two interviews to become a finalist, but didn’t get the offer.
李一直住在山东省省会济南的父母家中,济南是中国北部的一个城市。他的积蓄已经用完,因此在国有企业工作的父母在供养他。“我真的很想找到一份工作,拥有自己的经济来源,这样就不用依赖父母了,”李说,他仍在每周递交申请。“我没想到竞争会如此激烈。”根据香港大学经济学教授、前国际货币基金组织中国事务部首席史蒂文·巴内特的分析,总体城市就业人数如今比如果疫情前的就业增长率保持不变时应有的水平低约7%,相当于大约3700万个岗位的缺口。一些经济学家认为,中国的劳动力市场形势甚至比官方统计数据所显示的更加严峻。
Li has been living with his parents in his hometown of Jinan, the capital of Shandong province in northern China. He ran out of savings, so his parents, who work at state-owned enterprises, support him.“I really want to find a job and have my own financial means so I don’t have to rely on my parents,” said Li, who continues to submit applications weekly. “I didn’t think the competition would be so fierce.”Overall urban employment is now about 7% lower than it would have been if pre-Covid job-growth rates had held steady—a shortfall of roughly 37 million jobs, according to an analysis by Steven Barnett, an economics professor at the University of Hong Kong and former China division chief at the International Monetary Fund. Some economists believe China’s labor-market picture is even gloomier than official statistics suggest.
清华大学教授李稻葵最近估计,中国的广义失业率实际上约为10%,因为官方数据未计入至少两年未能找到工作的人群。AI威胁从长远来看,人工智能有潜力帮助中国经济。该国人口减少意味着最终可能没有足够的人来完成所有需要完成的工作。自动化将有所帮助。问题在于时机:人工智能发展迅速,而此时仍有太多年轻人在寻找稳定就业,通常是初级岗位。
Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University, recently estimated that China’s broad unemployment rate is actually about 10%, when factoring in people who’ve been unable to find work for at least two years and are left out of official data.AI threatIn the long run, AI has the potential to help China’s economy. The country’s shrinking population means it eventually might not have enough people to do all the work that needs to be done. Automation will help. The trouble is the timing: AI is coming on fast, when there are still too many young people looking for steady employment, often at entry level.
一些公司的人力资源经理表示,相比以前,他们在人工智能能够完成工作的情况下,更不愿意雇佣缺乏经验的工人。一些企业已将人工智能代理作为“数字员工”应用于客服、销售、会计、数据分析甚至人力资源等岗位。上海科技大学的一项研究分析了2022年至2026年间五大中国招聘平台的7亿条招聘信息,发现人工智能对一至三年工作经验的初级至中级工人的招聘需求影响最大。
Human-resources managers at some companies say they are less willing than before to hire inexperienced workers when AI can do the work. Some businesses have implemented AI agents as “digital employees” in roles such as customer service, sales, accounting, data analysis and even HR.A study by ShanghaiTech University analyzing 700 million job postings from five major Chinese recruitment platforms between 2022 and 2026 found that AI has reduced hiring demand the most for entry to midlevel workers with one to three years of work experience.“In the past, companies relied on entry-level newcomers to complete basic training tasks,” the report said.
报告称:“过去,公司依赖初级新人完成基础培训任务。”“如今,大型语言模型已接手这些责任,导致公司取消低工资的‘入门’岗位。”技术甚至开始威胁一些年轻人转而从事的兼职零工,如网约车、外卖送餐和直播,以替代更稳定的专业工作。
“Today, large-language models have taken over these responsibilities, leading companies to eliminate low-wage ‘starter’ roles.”Technology is even starting to threaten some of the part-time gigs young people have turned to in lieu of more stable professional work, such as ride hailing, food delivery and livestreaming.
根据中国新就业形态研究中心的数据,今年没有永久全职合同的灵活用工人数预计将从2025年的2.8亿人增至3.2亿人,占城镇就业的40%以上。随着机器人出租车和机器人快速推广,这些岗位中的一些将被取代。虽然调查显示中国人对人工智能的乐观程度普遍高于其他国家,但对技术的焦虑正在酝酿。2025年,长江商学院对超过1.1万名科技工作者进行的一项调查发现,超过三分之二的人认为他们将在未来五年内因人工智能而失去工作。
The total number of people in these kinds of flexible roles, without a permanent full-time contract, is expected to rise to 320 million this year from 280 million in 2025, accounting for more than 40% of urban employment, according to the China New Employment Forms Research Center, a think tank. Robotaxis and robots, which are rolling out quickly, will wipe out some of those roles. While surveys suggest people in China are generally more optimistic about AI than in other countries, anxiety about the technology is brewing. A 2025 survey of more than 11,000 science and technology workers by the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business found that more than two-thirds believe they will lose their jobs to AI within the next five years.
一名26岁的女子在7月被科技巨头百度解除用户界面设计师一职后,在社交媒体上发布了自己最后一天的视频——交还电脑和身份证件,然后在北京总部挥手告别,视频获得了数百万次观看。她表示,自己收拾好行李搬回了位于中国东南部江西省的父母家,如今每天的时间都花在补觉和与亲戚共进餐食上,尚未找到下一份工作。
One 26-year-old woman, laid off in July from her job as a user-interface designer at tech giant Baidu, racked up millions of views on Chinese social media after she posted videos of herself on her last day, turning in her computer and ID badge and then waving goodbye at the company’s Beijing headquarters. She said she packed up her belongings and moved back in with her parents in Jiangxi province in southeastern China, and now spends her days catching up on sleep and eating with relatives.
“我的脑子里全是关于接下来该做什么的问题。人工智能发展得越来越快,”她在其中一段视频中说。“我接下来该去哪里?”地方政府和高校已推出包括职业咨询、职业培训和人工智能相关课程在内的项目,旨在帮助学生应对不断变化的劳动力市场。此外,政府部门也在加大对企业的压力,提醒用人单位人工智能不是解雇员工的正当理由。
She hasn’t found her next job yet.“My head is full of questions about what I should do next. AI is developing faster and faster,” she says in one video. “Where do I go from here?”Local governments and universities have launched programs including career counseling, vocational training and AI-related courses aimed at preparing students for a changing labor market. And government authorities have been tightening pressure on companies, reminding employers that AI isn’t a valid reason to fire people.
据法院裁决及其律师透露,在一起案例中,一家公司因用人工智能取代一名前质量控制主管,被判决支付约3.8万美元的赔偿金。
In one case, a company was ordered to pay a former quality-control supervisor about $38,000 in damages after it replaced him with AI, according to the court ruling and his lawyer.
另一名因人工智能取代地图数据采集工作而失业的男子,通过劳动仲裁向雇主提出挑战并获得赔偿。“用人单位在享受科技红利的同时,也必须承担社会责任,”北京市人力资源和社会保障局在去年12月发布的一份案例研究中写道。但也有人持不同看法,其中包括许多家长,他们认为年轻人只需磨练意志、“吃苦”,就像他们在中国崛起过程中所做的那样。
Another man who lost his job collecting map data to AI challenged his employer in arbitration and won compensation.“As employers enjoy the benefits of technology, they must also shoulder social responsibilities,” the human-resources bureau of the Beijing municipal government wrote in a case study published last December. But there are others, including many parents, who say young people just need to toughen up and “eat bitterness,” as they did during China’s rise.
期望值过高中国的Z世代出生于1990年代和2000年代,从小接受的观念是:只要在学校努力学习、考上像样的大学,就能找到好工作、过上舒适的生活——比父母过得好,而父母又比上一代过得好。大学扩招进一步助长了这种期望。今年,中国有创纪录的1270万大学毕业生——预计这一数字还将继续攀升约十年。在父母多年施加的学业重压下,许多年轻人感到精疲力竭、备受背叛。
High expectationsBorn in the 1990s and 2000s, China’s Gen Z was raised with the idea that if they worked hard in school and went to a decent college, they could get a good job and live a comfortable life—better off than their parents, who were better off than the generation before. Surging college enrollment added to that expectation. This year, a record 12.7 million people graduated from college in China—a figure that is expected to continue to climb for about a decade. After years of heavy pressure from their parents to do well in school, many young people feel burned out and betrayed.
杰西卡·唐(Jessica Tang,音译)表示,在上海长大的她从小就感受到学业期望的重压。幼儿园时,她就参加全国美术比赛,以助日后升入重点小学。高中时,她花费大量时间参加课外辅导以求优势。“我觉得自己绝对要考上好学校,否则以后在社会上、在就业市场上就没有竞争力,”现年29岁的唐女士说。
Jessica Tang says she felt the weight of academic expectation from an early age growing up in Shanghai. By kindergarten, she’d entered national art competitions to help her get into a good elementary school. In high school, she spent hours in extra tutoring for an advantage.“I felt I absolutely had to get into a good school, otherwise I wouldn’t be competitive in society or in the job market afterward,” Tang, 29, said.
疫情期间,她的心态开始改变。在新冠封控期间被困家中、加班加点工作时,她开始觉得自己在公关公司的工作毫无必要,于是辞职。过去三年,唐女士一直从事自由职业。最近,生计变得更难维持。刚开始时,她写一份新闻稿轻松能赚300美元左右。
During the pandemic, her mindset began to change. Stuck at home during Covid lockdowns and working overtime, she started to think her job at a public-relations agency wasn’t necessary, so she quit. Tang has been freelancing for the past three years. Recently, it’s been harder to make a living. When she started, she could easily make around $300 writing a press release.
如今的工作任务伴随着更多要求,她的时薪收入已经减半。24岁的王元茹表示,考虑到正式就业市场上的激烈竞争,她根本看不出拼搏的意义。大学毕业后,她拿到设计专业学位,曾在一家设计公司工作了几个月,但因老板把她的工作成果据为己有而离职,她说。如今她靠卖手工艺品维生,收入足以在大理温饱。“如果谈到稳定工作,人太多而选择太少,所以我根本不做选择,”她说。
Assignments today come with more requirements and her hourly earnings have halved. Wang Yuanru, 24, said she just can’t see the point in hustling in the formal job market, given all the competition. After graduating from college with a degree in design, she worked for a few months for a design company, but left after her boss took credit for her work, she said. She now supports herself by selling handicrafts, making enough to get by in Dali.“There are too many people and too few choices, if we’re talking about stable jobs, so I don’t choose at all,” she said.A similar despondency brought Ma, the grad-school dropout, to Dali.
类似的绝望情绪也让研究生辍学的马来到了大理。马出生于中国西北部甘肃省的一个小城市,成绩一直很好,但他的父母都是医生,似乎总是期望他拿到更高的分数,他说。大学期间,他在北京一所顶尖大学里难以融入成绩优异的同学群体。来到大理后,他第一次能够简单地享受生活。他白天会睡到自然醒,去健身房,和朋友一起做饭,打扑克。
Growing up in a small city in Gansu province in northwestern China, he got good grades, but his parents, both doctors, seemed to always expect higher test scores, he said. In college, he struggled to fit in with overachieving classmates at a top university in Beijing. In Dali, he was able to simply enjoy his life for the first time. He spent his days sleeping in, going to the gym, cooking with friends and playing poker.
不过几个月后,他开始感到厌倦——并且对未来感到焦虑。“我只是觉得自己陷入了一种停滞状态,动弹不得,”马说。他一直靠父母的生活费过日子,但他知道父母不可能永远支持他。马离开了大理,最近一直在印度尼西亚旅行,目的地尚未确定。请将来信发送至汉娜·缪的邮箱:hannah.miao@wsj.com。
After a few months, though, he started to get bored—and anxious about the future. “I just feel like I’m stuck in a shut-down state, unable to move,” Ma said. He’s been living off an allowance from his parents, but knows they can’t support him forever. Ma left Dali and recently has been traveling across Indonesia. Destination unknown. Write to Hannah Miao at hannah.miao@wsj.com