
方舟投资管理公司的凯茜·伍德表示,存储芯片板块容易出现“恶性”的繁荣与萧条周期,随着中国企业扩大产能,这一问题可能会进一步恶化。
The memory-chip sector is prone to “vicious” boom-and-bust cycles and the problem may only worsen as Chinese companies ramp up capacity, according to Cathie Wood of ARK Investment Management LLC.
伍德因押注颠覆性创新而家喻户晓,她在香港对投资者表示,方舟投资避开传统的存储芯片厂商,因为当供给超过需求时,价格可能会迅速下跌。
Wood, who became a household name by betting on disruptive innovation, told investors in Hong Kong that ARK avoids traditional memory-chip players because prices can fall quickly when supply outpaces demand.
她表示,尽管高带宽内存目前依然供不应求,但中国新增产能的进入可能会扰乱定价,并放大整个板块的价格波动。
Although high-bandwidth memory remains in tight supply for now, the entry of incremental Chinese producers threatens to disrupt pricing and amplify price swings across the sector, she said.
伍德说:“总体趋势是向上的,但周期是恶性的。”如果“出现更多新增竞争对手,特别是来自中国的竞争对手,波动性将会加剧。”尽管韩国的SK海力士公司和三星电子公司以及美国的美光科技公司主导了高端存储供应和高带宽内存封装,但以长鑫存储等中国国资背景企业为代表的厂商已迅速扩大动态随机存取存储器产量以争夺市场份额。SK海力士和三星公司的股价较今年高点分别下跌了51%和36%。
“The trend is up, but the cycles are vicious,” Wood said. If “you get a few more incremental competitors, especially out of China, the volatility will increase.”While South Korea’s SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co., alongside US-based Micron Technology Inc., dominate top-tier memory supply and HBM packaging, Chinese state-backed players such as CXMT Corp. have rapidly scaled DRAM output to grab market share. SK Hynix and Samsung’s shares have lost 51% and 36% from this year’s highs, respectively.

另外,伍德表示,方舟投资对中国科技领域的吸引力不如其他地方,部分原因是反内卷措施无法修复通货紧缩问题,也无法保护经济免受严重的房地产低迷影响。
Separately, Wood said ARK is not as attracted to tech space in China as it is elsewhere, partly because the anti-involution measures are unable to mend the deflationary problem or shied the economy from deep property slump.
伍德还反驳了博通公司首席执行官陈福阳关于人工智能交易已变得具有投机性的警告。她打消了对市场泡沫的担忧,预计人工智能将大幅提高生产力。
Wood also pushed back against the Broadcom Inc. CEO Hock Tan’s warning that the artificial intelligence trade has become speculative. She dismissed fears of a market bubble, expecting AI to boost productivity massively.