能源咨询公司Energy Aspects表示，随着原油进口恢复，中国炼厂本月将放慢从储备中消耗石油的速度。
Chinese refiners will slow drawdowns of oil from reserves this month as crude imports recover, according to Energy Aspects.
Energy Aspects分析师孙佳楠（音）称，预计从11月起将有更多海外原油运抵，从而使中国得以保持库存缓冲，以应对进一步的供应中断。他补充说，最近为下个月交货而采购的伊拉克及其他中东原油表明，炼厂已在确保更多供应。
More overseas crude is expected to arrive from November, allowing China to preserve its stockpiles buffer against further supply disruptions, said Jianan Sun, an analyst at Energy Aspects. Recent purchases of Iraqi and other Middle Eastern barrels for delivery next month suggest refiners are already securing more supplies, he added.
中国庞大的库存为应对战时供应中断提供了关键缓冲，使这个全球最大的原油进口国得以维持炼厂开工，而无需追逐更昂贵的替代原油。如今，随着中东生产商提供更多的现货船货，国营和民营炼厂正在抢购，尽管近期激增的袭击事件给所有货轮能否抵达带来了不确定性。
China’s massive inventories have provided a crucial cushion against wartime disruptions, allowing the world’s biggest oil importer to sustain refinery runs without chasing more expensive replacement barrels. Now, as Middle Eastern producers offer more spot cargoes, state-owned and private refiners are snapping them up, though a recent surge in attacks has cast uncertainty over whether all the shipments will arrive.
孙佳楠说：“我们预计中国的原油去库存化至少在10月份会放慢。我们看到中国原油进口面临上行风险，因为沙特阿美正通过霍尔木兹海峡之外的船对船转运增加出口。”他指的是船对船转运。
“We expect China’s crude destocking to slow at least in October,” Sun said. “We see upside risks to Chinese crude imports as Saudi Aramco ramps up exports via STS transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, referring to ship-to-ship transfers.
根据Vortexa公司的数据，自中东战争爆发以来，约有1.47亿桶的库存消耗使中国的原油库存降至10.9亿桶。这家分析公司表示，9月份库存降幅创下2020年以来最大，由于霍尔木兹海峡周边的船对船转运瓶颈推迟了进口船货，国营炼厂领衔了这部分提取。
The drawdown of about 147 million barrels since the Middle East war began depleted China’s crude inventories to 1.09 billion barrels, according to Vortexa Ltd. Stockpiles shrunk by the most since 2020 in September, the analytics firm said, with state-owned refiners leading the offtake as ship-to-ship transfer bottlenecks around Hormuz delayed incoming cargoes.
总部设在巴黎、隶属于Energy Aspects的能源分析公司Kayrros称，截至10月11日，中国的库存骤降至11.8亿桶，为16个月来的最低水平。
China’s stockpiles plunged to 1.18 billion barrels as of Oct. 11, the lowest in 16 months, according to Kayrros, the Paris-based energy analytics firm part of Energy Aspects.
尽管国家库存规模依然可观，但民营炼厂的供应紧张情况更为严重。一些独立加工商可能会在本月底前耗尽库存，若不能确保获得新的供应，将面临削减开工率的风险。
While national inventories still remain sizable, the squeeze is more acute among private refiners. Some independent processors could exhaust their inventories by the end of this month, risking run cuts unless they secure fresh supplies.
与此同时，中国的石油进口量有望增加。根据彭博社汇编的油轮追踪数据，在接下来的3个月里，预计将有96艘每艘载油量约为200万桶的超大型油轮陆续抵港，创下2月下旬伊朗战争爆发以来的最高纪录。在北京向民营加工商发放了新的原油进口配额后，炼厂已加大了现货采购力度。
Meanwhile, China’s oil imports are poised to rise. Over the next three months, 96 supertankers capable of carrying about 2 million barrels each, are due to arrive — the most since the Iran war began in late February, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Refiners have stepped up spot purchases after Beijing issued fresh crude import quotas to private processors.
尽管近期针对船只的伊朗袭击事件有所增加，迫使更多驶往装货地点的空载超大型油轮驶离波斯湾，但该地区最大生产商沙特阿拉伯表示，其能源供应能力依然强劲。
Despite the recent increase in Iranian attacks on ships, forcing more empty supertankers headed for loading to turn away from the Persian Gulf, the region’s top producer Saudi Arabia has said its ability to supply energy remains resilient.
Energy Aspects的孙佳楠表示：“沙特出口更快的恢复，可能会让中国国营炼厂，特别是中国石化，能够利用额外的沙特原油，在2027年3月之前补充今年早些时候消耗的商业库存。”
“A faster recovery in Saudi exports could allow Chinese state-owned refiners, particularly Sinopec, to use additional Saudi crude to replenish commercial inventories drawn earlier this year by March 2027,” EA’s Sun said.