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共和党准备迎接平淡的跛脚鸭会期GOP readies for an underwhelming lame duck

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共和党人对高效跛脚鸭会期的期望正在落空。选举后返回华盛顿的议员仅有 24 个立法日,要处理一份相当长的必通过法案清单,还可能面临混乱的内部领导层争斗。这还得看他们能否克服国会山潜在的权力交接和恶劣的全国民情。

Republicans’ dreams of a productive lame-duck session are dimming. Members returning to Washington post-election will have a mere 24 legislative days to get through a considerable list of must-pass bills and possibly messy internal leadership fights. That’s if they can overcome a potential transition of power on Capitol Hill and a foul national mood.

议员的必办清单包括:将政府拨款延长至 12 月 11 日之后,以及年度五角大楼政策法案。重新授权农业、交通和监控项目的重大立法也在待办之列。随后还有修革能源许可和大学体育产业的待决两党法案,许多议员渴望完成这些法案。最后,领导层曾推迟一些共和党优先事项——例如另一项党派路线的协调法案,或将债务上限提高至唐纳德·特朗普总统任期结束。

Lawmakers’ must-do list includes: an extension of government funding past Dec. 11 and the annual Pentagon policy bill. Major legislation to reauthorize farm, transportation and surveillance programs are also on deck. Then there are pending bipartisan bills overhauling energy permitting and the college sports industry that many members are itching to get done. And finally, leaders had deferred some GOP priorities — such as another party-line reconciliation bill or debt-limit increase through the end of President Donald Trump’s term.

所有这些措施各自都面临潜在的政治雷区,此外还存在若干共性障碍:—— 出席率:刚刚失去席位的议员——有人称他们为“散养鸡”——几乎没有动力去争取立法胜利,前提是他们 überhaupt 还会回来。“问题变成了:选举后谁会来上班?”众议员奥斯汀·斯科特在采访中说。“出席率目前是个问题。”

All of the measures face their own potential political minefields individually, as well as a number of obstacles across the board: — ATTENDANCE: There will be little incentive for lawmakers who just lost their seats — “free-range chickens,” some call them — to grind out legislative wins, if they come back at all. “The question becomes: Who shows up for work after the elections?”Rep. Austin Scott said in an interview.

—— 新筹码:如果民主党赢得任一议院控制权,他们很可能会寻求在立法上施加更大影响,以抗衡特朗普的行动。例如,民主党对特朗普政府近期决定阻拨国会已批准的约 10 亿美元资金感到愤怒,这可能使任何支出立法协议复杂化。他们还因伊朗战争问题陷入僵局而阻挠年度五角大楼政策法案;并可能在许可协议上争取更多让步。“如果我们赢得参议院,跛脚鸭会期将截然不同,”少数党领袖查克·舒默在最近的采访中说。

“Attendance is an issue right now.” — NEW LEVERAGE: If Democrats win control of either chamber, they’ll likely seek greater influence on legislation to push back on Trump’s actions. For example, Democrats are fuming over the Trump administration’s recent decision to block roughly $1 billion in congressionally approved funding, which could complicate any deal on spending legislation. They’ve also blocked the annual Pentagon policy bill amid a standoff over the Iran war; and they may push for more concessions on the permitting deal. “The lame duck will be quite different if we win the Senate,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a recent interview. — GOP DISPUTES: While some Republicans believe that losing a chamber would jump-start the reconciliation process, others privately believe the exact opposite would happen, with incentives waning for exiting lawmakers, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to speak candidly. Other GOP senators, like Sen. Cynthia Lummis, are skeptical of a debt-limit increase.

共和党内部的争议:据三位匿名接受采访的共和党助手透露,虽然一些共和党人认为失去控制众议院的权力会促使党内重新达成共识(即促进和解进程),但另一些人则持相反观点,他们认为在这种情况下,那些希望退出政界的议员的积极性会进一步下降。还有一些共和党参议员(如辛西娅·卢米斯参议员)对提高债务上限的提议持怀疑态度。

A Democratic flip of the House could also spark a potentially chaotic cascade of GOP leadership elections (more on that below).

如果民主党在众议院中改变立场,可能会引发一系列混乱的共和党领导层选举(详情见下文)。约翰·肯尼迪参议员指出:“你们根本无法预测共和党内部会形成什么样的氛围。”

Sen. John Kennedy speculated Congress’ agenda would all come down to the vibes of the GOP conference when they returned. “You have no idea what the mood is going to be,” Kennedy said.

约翰逊的领导地位前景:在众议院议长迈克·约翰逊周一表示如果共和党失去众议院控制权他会竞选少数党领袖后,共和党人正在重新评估潜在的领导层竞争格局。就在几天前,他还曾暗示过在这种情况下自己可能会退出国会。许多共和党人原本预测约翰逊会在众议院局势发生变化时主动辞职,届时多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯和司法委员会主席吉姆·乔丹之间将会展开竞争以争夺共和党的领导权。

What else we’re watching: — JOHNSON SCRAMBLES LEADERSHIP OUTLOOK: Republicans are reassessing the dynamics of potential leadership races after Speaker Mike Johnson‘s comments Monday that he would run for minority leader if the GOP loses the House — just days after he floated leaving Congress altogether in that scenario. Many Republicans had predicted Johnson would step aside with a House flip, likely setting off a race between Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan for the top GOP spot.

但如果约翰逊继续留任,他的成败可能取决于共和党的失利程度,以及特朗普是否会为某个候选人提供支持。一位众议院共和党议员表示:“我希望他不会做出这种愚蠢的决定;否则后果会很糟糕,也会对党内团结造成不必要的伤害。”

If Johnson stays put, his success may depend on the severity of the party’s loss and if Trump weighs in for a certain candidate. “I hope he’s smarter than that,” one House Republican said of Johnson’s consideration of the minority leader role.

民主党准备监督特朗普的贸易协议:众议院财政委员会、参议院财政委员会等机构的民主党成员认为特朗普的贸易协议存在问题,并已开始准备调查这些协议的相关细节。

“It would end very badly and cause unnecessary damage to the conference.” — DEMS GEAR UP ON TRADE OVERSIGHT — Democrats on the House Ways and Means, Senate Finance and other panels say Trump’s trade deals were corrupt, and they’re already lining up targets to probe.

该政党深知,只要特朗普仍执掌白宫,便无法废除其实施的关税政策。不过,倘若成功掌控国会,他们计划传唤政府高官乃至企业负责人,要求他们说明特朗普是如何选定贸易战打击对象的,以及是否存在通过利益交换而使某些企业免受制裁的情况。

The party knows it can’t repeal Trump’s tariffs as long as he’s in the White House, but if they win control of Congress, they plan to haul in top administration officials and possibly executives to explain how Trump picked his targets in his trade war — and if others got a pass through suspected quid pro quos.