纽约联储行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示，他仍认为今年再加息一次是合适的，但目前认为中央银行在2027年再次加息没有必要。
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he still sees one more interest-rate hike as appropriate this year, but at the moment doesn’t believe it will be necessary for the central bank to increase rates again in 2027.
“我对可能需要再加息一次的看法没有改变，”威廉姆斯周二在纽约联储接受彭博新闻采访时说。“目前我认为没有理由相信在那之后我们还需要做更多。”
“I haven’t changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike,” Williams said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg News at the New York Fed. “I don’t think at this time I have any reason to believe that we would need to do more” after that.
威廉姆斯表示，随着关税影响和能源价格冲击的消退，通胀放缓“相当明显”的迹象仍然存在，且有望在明年接近美联储2%的目标。他指出，这以及其他显示根本性通胀正在降温的迹象，应有助于抵御由人工智能基础设施建设推动的价格压力。
Williams said there are still signs inflation will slow “quite a bit” and approach the Fed’s 2% target next year, as the impacts from tariffs and an energy price shock fade. That, along with other signs that underlying inflation is cooling, should help overcome the price pressures driven by the build-out of infrastructure for artificial intelligence, he said.
威廉姆斯发表讲话后，美国国债收益率小幅下跌，其中对美联储利率路径最敏感的两年期国债收益率抹去了此前最多达三个基点的涨幅。
US Treasury yields edged lower after Williams’ remarks, with those on two-year notes — most sensitive to the Fed’s rate path — erasing an increase of as much as three basis points.
威廉姆斯的言论使其立场与美联储官员在9月会议上同意加息25个基点后发布的利率预测中值保持一致。然而，他的一些同事——包括克利夫兰联储行长贝斯·汉马克和达拉斯联储行长洛里·洛根——明确表示，他们认为需要多于一次的额外行动才能将通胀拉回2%。
Williams’ remarks put him in line with the median of rate projections released by Fed officials after they agreed to raise rates by a quarter percentage point at their September gathering. A number of his colleagues, however — including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas’ Lorie Logan — have made clear they believe more than one additional move will be required to bring inflation back to 2%.
基于联邦基金期货的定价，投资者目前预计美联储将在12月加息，并在2027年再加息两次。
Investors currently anticipate the Fed will raise rates in December and twice more in 2027, based on pricing in federal funds futures.
纽约联储行长强调了他展望周围存在的高度不确定性，并特别表示，他将继续密切关注通胀中的人工智能因素。
The New York Fed chief emphasized the high level of uncertainty around his outlook and, in particular, said he continues to watch the AI component of inflation closely.
“现在才十月中旬，”他说，“当前的经济状况受到多种因素的影响，我们只能继续关注相关数据的变化。”政策制定者们将在周三收到关于消费者价格通胀的最新报告，这也是他们在10月27日至28日召开会议之前的最后一份报告。
“It’s still mid-October,” he said. “This economy is being affected by lots of different influences, and we just have to keep watching the data.”Policymakers will get a fresh report on consumer price inflation on Wednesday, the last one before they meet on Oct. 27-28.
在9月份货币政策调整之前，威廉姆斯并未强烈主张加息。不过他表示，在两个因素改变了短期通胀前景后，他“坚决支持”当时的加息决定。
Williams wasn’t among policymakers calling forcefully for a rate increase in the run-up to the September move. But, he said, he “firmly supported” the September increase after two factors altered the short-term inflation outlook.
首先，此前人们预计伊朗冲突会得到解决、油价会下跌，这种预期过于乐观了；其次，近几个月来油价与精炼产品价格之间的差距显著扩大了。“我认为，这些变化进一步加剧了燃料成本的上涨，”他说。不过，这些因素并未改变他对通胀的长期看法。
First, earlier expectations that the Iran conflict might get resolved and oil prices would fall proved overly optimistic. In addition, the spread between oil prices and the prices for refined products increased markedly in recent months. “We’ve seen, I think, an additional shock, if you will, or additional manifestation of these developments in terms of much higher fuel costs,” he said. But that hasn’t altered his longer-term outlook for prices.
“我仍然认为存在通缩趋势，”他说，“关税和能源价格的影响确实存在，再加上人工智能（AI）的发展，也加剧了通胀压力。不过，我认为这些因素并不表明基础通胀会继续上升；事实上，一些反映基础通胀的指标反而有所下降。”他强调，目前没有迹象表明劳动力市场处于失衡状态、从而加剧了通胀。
“I still believe there’s disinflationary forces at play,” he said. “We definitely had the effects of tariffs and the energy prices, and now with AI. But some of those are, I think, not indicating upward movement in underlying inflation. In fact, these measures of underlying inflation have come down.”Importantly, he added, there’s no sign that the labor market is out of balance and contributing to inflation.
“整体而言，经济并未出现过热现象，”他说，“当前的通胀压力主要源于这些特定的突发事件。”尽管如此，威廉姆斯也承认，与人工智能发展相关的需求正在超过供应，这种供需失衡的情况需要一段时间才能得到缓解。
“This is not an economy that is overheating overall,” he said. “This is not an economy where this added inflationary pressure is beyond these particular shocks that we’re experiencing.”Still, Williams acknowledged that demand related to the AI build-out was outpacing supply, and that mismatch wouldn’t be resolved for some time.
他说：“我们经济的一个子行业似乎正以全速运行，并且在一段时间内将继续保持这种状态，这是一种不寻常的情况。”但他认为，更重要的是审视整个经济。他还保持乐观，认为人工智能最终将带来具有通缩效应的生产率提升。然而，他表示，预测这种情况何时会发生极其困难。
“It is an unusual circumstance that we have one sub-sector of the economy that seems to be running at all cylinders and is going to keep going for a while,” he said. “But I think it’s really about looking at the broader economy.”He also remained optimistic that AI will eventually deliver productivity gains that will be disinflationary. Predicting when that might happen, however, is extremely difficult, he said.
威廉姆斯还谈到他在9月29日发表的一次演讲，该演讲在遏制市场对本月再次加息的预期方面起到了关键作用。在这些言论中，威廉姆斯表示，鉴于9月的行动，美联储再次加息的紧迫性不大。随后，副主席菲利普·杰斐逊发表了类似的言论。
Williams also spoke about a speech he delivered on Sept. 29 that proved crucial in reining in market expectations for another rate increase this month. In those remarks, Williams said there was little urgency for the Fed to hike again in the wake of the September move. His comments were followed by similar remarks from Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
许多美联储观察人士推测，这些演讲是经过协调的，可能包括美联储主席凯文·沃什，以避免让投资者措手不及。
Many Fed watchers speculated that the speeches were coordinated, possibly with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, to prevent a surprise for investors.
周二，威廉姆斯表示，市场定价是“有用的信息”，但他的演讲仅反映了他个人的观点。
On Tuesday, Williams said market pricing was “useful information,” but his speech reflected only his own views.
他说：“9月份我们有两个月的数据。这是一个评估、判断基本趋势所在的机会。”
“In September we had two months of data. It was an opportunity to assess, evaluate what are the underlying trends telling us,” he said.
纽约联储行长在货币政策决策中拥有永久表决权，并担任联邦公开市场委员会的副主席。与美联储董事会主席和副主席一起，纽约联储行长传统上被视为央行领导层的“三驾马车”成员之一。
The president of the New York Fed holds a permanent vote on monetary policy decisions and acts as vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee. Together with the chair and vice chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, the New York Fed chief is traditionally considered part of the central bank’s leadership “troika.”
他说：“我与主席保持定期联系。我们经常会面，但我不打算透露更多细节。”
“I’m in regular contact with the chairman,” Williams said. “We meet frequently, but I’m not going to say anything more about that.”