波士顿联储行长苏珊·柯林斯表示，利率可能还需要在今年年底前进一步上调，以帮助遏制通胀。
Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said interest rates will likely need to rise more before the end of the year to help rein in inflation.
“我目前也预计，在今年年底前适度再次提高利率将是合适的，以确保通胀及时、持续地回归至委员会2%的目标，”柯林斯在波士顿联储于周一主办的银行会议上的准备发言中如是说。
“I also currently expect that it will be appropriate to raise rates a bit further before the end of the year to ensure a timely and durable return of inflation to the Committee’s 2% target,” Collins said in prepared remarks for a banking conference hosted by the Boston Fed on Monday.
柯林斯警告称，她对是否需要进一步加息以及何时加息的看法，将取决于即将到来的数据。
Collins cautioned that her view on the need for any additional rate moves, and the timing for that, would depend on incoming data.
根据该会议纪要，在9月的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会在19名政策制定者全部支持的情况下，将利率上调了四分之一个百分点。主席凯文·沃什将此举描述为从经济中移除了一“剂宽松”。
The Federal Open Market Committee raised rates by a quarter percentage point in September in a decision backed by all 19 policymakers, according to minutes of that meeting. Chairman Kevin Warsh described the move as removing a “dose of accommodation” in the economy.
在上个月会议后发布的预测中，18名美联储官员的中位数估计——沃什曾表示他不提交预测——表明今年还可能有一次加息。最近，一些官员表示，9月的加息使得央行在再次收紧货币政策之前可以有喘息空间。政策制定者将于10月27日至28日在华盛顿再次会晤。
In projections released following last month’s meeting, the median estimate of 18 Fed officials — Warsh has said he doesn’t submit forecasts — signaled one more rate hike as likely this year. More recently, a number of officials have said September’s rate hike allows the central bank to take time before tightening monetary policy again. Policymakers will meet again Oct. 27-28 in Washington.
柯林斯表示，她预计经济将继续增长，劳动力市场将保持在充分就业附近。
Collins says she expects the economy to continue to grow and the labor market to stay near full employment.
“在这种情况下，随着持续的效率提升支持需求与供应的平衡，并有助于通缩，通胀将逐步回归至2%，”她说。
“In this scenario, inflation gradually returns to 2%, as continued efficiency gains support the balance between demand and supply, and contribute to disinflation,” she said.
但她警告称，还有两种她认为几乎同样可能的情景。人工智能的需求可能引发规模巨大的投资热潮，进而进一步提振家庭消费，导致劳动力市场过热，使通胀维持在美联储目标之上。
But she warned of two other scenarios that she sees as almost as likely. The demand from artificial intelligence could drive an outsize investment boom that then further boosts household spending, overheats the labor market and keeps inflation above the Fed’s target.
此外，关税和能源带来的价格压力——尤其是如果伊朗战争持续——可能会使通胀挑战持续存在，她说。
Additionally, price pressures from tariffs and energy, especially if the Iran war continues, might perpetuate inflation challenges, she said.
“监测通胀升高是否主要局限于能源和人工智能基建相关类别，而其他领域的价格增长继续放缓——或者价格压力的证据是否变得更为广泛，这一点将非常重要，”柯林斯表示。波士顿联储行长表示，当前的经济强势并不意味着经济正在过热。
“It will be important to monitor whether elevated inflation remains largely confined to energy and AI-build-out-related categories, while price growth continues to moderate elsewhere – or whether evidence of price pressures broadens,” Collins said. The Boston Fed chief said current economic strength doesn’t indicate that the economy is overheating.
“相反，我认为实体经济活动的强势反映的不仅是强劲的需求，还有由于效率提升带来的经济生产能力的增加，”她说。
“Rather, I see the strength in real economic activity as reflecting not just strong demand but also an increase in the economy’s productive capacity due to efficiency gains,” she said.
柯林斯补充称，劳动力市场保持稳定，而更高的生产率增长正在使经济在需求和供应保持平衡的情况下继续增长。
Collins added that the labor market is stable and higher productivity growth is allowing the economy to keep growing while demand and supply stay balanced.