如果想要加薪，跳槽比留在原岗位更有利。“2026年，跳槽者的工资增长再次回升，即使留岗者的加薪幅度继续放缓，”旧金山联邦储备银行宏观经济研究副总裁Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau在一篇领英帖子中表示。这一结论基于亚特兰大联邦储备银行根据当前人口调查数据追踪的跳槽者和留岗者的中位数工资增长的12个月移动平均值。
It's once again better to switch jobs than stay in your current gig if you want a raise. "Wage growth for workers who change jobs is picking up again in 2026, even as raises for those who stay put keep slowing," Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, vice president for macroeconomic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a LinkedIn post. That's based on 12-month moving averages of median wage growth for job switchers and stayers tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta using Current Population Survey data.
跳槽者的同比工资增长已连续四个月达到4.4%，而留岗者的增长则落后，9月份的估计值为3.5%。两组之间的差距去年有所缩小，甚至出现过一段短暂时期，留岗者的工资增长实际上略高于跳槽者。最近的趋势可能预示着回归历史常态——即跳槽溢价在健康劳动力市场中的回归。“今年上半年是个例外，低招聘环境是罪魁祸首，”Glassdoor高级经济学家Chris Martin表示。
Year-over-year wage growth for job switchers has been 4.4% for four straight months, while growth for job stayers falls short, with September's estimate at 3.5%. The gap between the two groups shrank last year, including a brief period where stayers actually saw slightly better wage growth than switchers. The recent trend could be the start of a return to the historical norm of a healthy job-switching premium. "The first half of this year was the anomaly, and the low-hire environment is to blame," said Chris Martin, senior economist at Glassdoor.
“求职者只能接受他们能得到的东西，这往往意味着妥协：晋升机会减少，工资降低。”然而，一些工人目前没有跳槽的条件。辞职率已在1.9%至2%之间波动一年多，远低于几年前“大辞职”期间的3%水平，这表明工人信心不足。职位空缺同样疲软，且远低于2022年3月创下的7.5%纪录。“跳槽者溢价的回归是求职者前景改善的早期迹象，尽管招聘率仍然低位，求职过程也在变长，”Martin表示。
"Job seekers had to take what they could get, and that often meant compromise: fewer promotions and lower wages." However, some workers don't have the luxury to switch jobs right now. The quits rate has been bouncing between 1.9% and 2% for a little over a year now, far below the 3% rate a few years ago during the "Great Resignation," suggesting lower confidence among workers. Openings have been similarly sluggish and are substantially down from the March 2022 record of 7.5%. "The return of this premium for job switchers is an early sign of improving prospects for job seekers, though the hiring rate remains low and job searches are taking longer," Martin said.
随着职位空缺基本持平于失业水平，AI让简历投递变得更容易，以及白领行业的岗位流失，工人可能发现很难告别目前的工作。
With job openings basically in line with the unemployment level, AI making it easier to send out résumés, and job losses in white-collar sectors, workers might find it tough to say goodbye to their current role.
“虽然跳槽仍然伴随着更高的薪酬，这对感受到通胀压力的工人来说尤其有帮助，但跳槽的机会却寥寥无几，”ZipRecruiter经济学家妮可·巴乔德说。人们可以在岗位停滞期间提升自己的经验。巴乔德建议学习AI技能，这可能对当前职位有所帮助，或可写入简历。“对于感到在当前职位上停滞不前的工人来说，避免陷入安于现状的陷阱很重要，”巴乔德说。
"While job hopping still comes with higher pay, which is especially helpful for workers feeling the squeeze of inflation, the opportunities to job hop are few and far between," said ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud. People can improve their experience while stuck in their role. Bachaud suggests learning AI skills, which may be helpful in your current position or to note on your résumé. "For workers who are feeling stuck in their current position, it's important not to fall into the complacency trap," Bachaud said.
“除了工资之外，随着AI重塑岗位，劳动力市场正在快速变化。”无论你是申请新的高薪职位，还是向现任雇主争取加薪，广播自己的成就都不是坏主意。人们可以“大声工作”，向经理和同事以及职场之外的人展示自己的成就和贡献，例如通过LinkedIn帖子。“我们阻止自己进行自我推销，因为我们认为这是不好的，但自我推销是通向头衔、晋升和加薪的面包屑，”MyPerfectResume职业专家贾斯敏·埃斯卡莱拉说。”
"Beyond wages, the labor market is shifting rapidly as AI reshapes jobs." Whether you're applying for a new higher-paying job or seeking a raise from your current employer, it's not a bad idea to broadcast your accomplishments. People can "loud work" and boast their achievements and contributions to their manager and colleagues as well as beyond the workplace, such as through LinkedIn posts. "We stop ourselves from self-promotion because we think it's bad, but self-promotion is the breadcrumbs that lead to the titles and the promotions and the pay raises," said Jasmine Escalera, a career expert with MyPerfectResume.