跳槽者和退休人员都享有收入溢价。社会保障局最近发布了明年生活成本调整幅度。约7200万受益人将在1月份看到福利增加3.6%，高于9月份三个月移动平均同比留职者工资中位数增幅3.4%。独立经济学家Aaron Terrazas表示，在过去六年中，有三年社会保障受益人的生活成本调整增幅高于留职者，最近一次是2022年宣布的2023年8.7%增幅，当时正值疫情后通胀飙升。
There's an income premium for job switchers — and for retirees. The Social Security Administration recently released the cost-of-living adjustment for next year. About 72 million recipients will experience a 3.6% increase in their benefits in January, higher than the September three-month moving average year-over-year median wage growth for job stayers at 3.4%. Independent economist Aaron Terrazas said cost-of-living increases for Social Security beneficiaries were higher than job-stayers' increases in three of the past six years, the most recent being the 8.7% 2023 increase announced in 2022 amid the post-pandemic inflation spike.
Terrazas说：“退休人员收入随生活成本调整，而工作人群的报酬主要按劳动力成本确定。过去几十年大部分时间，我们处于低通胀、劳动力短缺的世界，这对工人有利，但感觉这种情况正在表面下发生转变。”9月份总体消费者价格指数同比上涨3.7%，偏离美联储2%的通胀目标，但低于2022年的高位。社会保障局根据每年第三季度相关通胀率的平均值确定年度生活成本调整。
"Retiree income is adjusted with the cost of living, whereas people who are working are mostly compensated according to the cost of labor," Terrazas said. "For most of the past decades, we've been in a low inflation labor shortage world, so that's worked out in workers' favor, but it feels like that's shifting underneath the surface." The headline consumer price index increased 3.7% from a year ago in September, moving away from the Fed's 2% inflation target but down from the high rates back in 2022. The Social Security Administration bases the annual cost-of-living adjustment on the average of a related inflation rate during the third quarter of each year.
你今年涨薪了吗，或者领取了社会保障福利？我们想听听大家在当今经济环境下的情况。“将收入与生活成本而非劳动力成本挂钩，是1970年代推高通胀、引发工资-价格螺旋的重要因素，”Terrazas说。“我们让大多数劳动力摆脱了这种做法，但退休人员除外。”
Have you gotten a raise this year or received Social Security benefits? We're looking to hear how people are doing in today's economy. Reach out to this reporter to share at mhoff@businessinsider.com. "Indexing incomes to the cost of living rather than cost of labor is a big part of what fueled inflation, the wage-price spiral in the 1970s," Terrazas said. "We moved away from that practice for most of the workforce, but not for retirees.
随着越来越多的美国人进入退休年龄，越来越多的消费者的收入开始与通货膨胀挂钩（而非与劳动力成本挂钩），无论我们是否愿意接受这一现实。特拉萨斯（Terrazas）认为，这种情况可能会继续加剧“贫富差距”（即“K型经济”现象），因为老年消费者在消费中占据了主导地位；不过这种情况可能会随着婴儿潮一代逐渐退出退休高峰期而发生变化。
With the growing share of Americans in their retiring years, more and more consumers are, whether we want it or not, having their incomes indexed to inflation rather than the cost of labor." This, Terrazas thinks, could continue to drive the K-shaped economy of the haves and the have-nots, as he said older consumers are driving an outsize share of spending, although that could change as boomers start to age out of the peak retirement spending years.
他说：“婴儿潮一代正处于他们的核心消费阶段。在分析消费趋势和经济走势时，这一点不容忽视——一旦人们年过八十，他们的消费支出很可能会减少，因为他们更倾向于待在家里。”
"Baby boomers are in their core retirement spending years," he said. "When we think about consumer trends and what's holding up the economy, that is something we can't forget — that once people reach their 80s, we should expect that spending to start to contract as people become homebound."
与此同时，更换工作的人的月度变动率（即三个月内更换工作的人数比例）高于继续在同一工作单位工作的人的变动率，也高于官方公布的工资涨幅（COLA）。因此，如果你的目标是提高收入，那么跳槽可能比继续留在原工作岗位更有利。不过问题在于：根据你所在的地区不同，找到新的工作机会可能会非常困难。白领行业的就业情况一直不稳定，休闲和酒店服务业的就业状况也相当波动。
Meanwhile, the three-month moving average for job switchers was higher than for job stayers and higher than the announced COLA, so job-hopping could be better than job-staying if you prioritize earning more. The problem is that it may be hard to find a new opportunity, depending on where you're looking. White-collar fields have been experiencing job loss, and employment levels in the leisure and hospitality sector have been pretty volatile.
过去几年里，美国的招聘和裁员数量都很少；如果你有工作，那么你的处境应该还算不错，但就业机会和招聘活动都十分匮乏，这对求职者来说是个不利的局面。虽然这意味着在职员工的工作稳定性相对较高，但这也意味着雇主无需付出太多努力就能让员工继续留在公司。一些员工开始通过积极表现（如在工作中主动发声、通过 LinkedIn 等平台展示自己的成就）来争取更好的发展机会——无论这是出于对裁员的担忧、希望获得加薪，还是其他原因。
The US has spent the last couple of years in a low-hire, low-fire period: Layoffs are low, so if you have a job, you're likely doing OK, but job openings and hiring have also been anemic, making an ominous situation for job seekers. While that means employees may be more secure if they have a job, it also means employers don't have to do a lot to convince people to stay. Some workers have turned to "loud working" to try to make sure their accomplishments are being heard internally at their company or externally via LinkedIn or other platforms, whether that be because of fear of job cuts, to make the case for a raise, or some other reason.
特拉萨斯说：“我认为，求职者看到就业报告的新闻标题说失业率很低、我们还在持续创造就业岗位，这很难，但这与他们自身的感受截然不同。所以我认为，让他们理解这样一个信息很重要：他们并不孤单。许多人，尤其是白领工作者，正在艰难地寻找新工作，或者艰难地在职场中维持生计。”
"It's tough, I think, for job seekers to see headlines when we get the jobs report that unemployment is low, we're continuing to create jobs, but it's something very different from what they're feeling," Terrazas said. "And so I think it is important for them to understand that message that they're not alone. Many people, especially in white-collar work, are struggling to find new jobs or struggling to stay afloat in their workplaces."