通胀将成为周三投资者关注的焦点，因为他们正在消化最新的消费者物价指数。这一读数可能是通胀仍然是一个问题且不会消失的又一个迹象。
Inflation will be in the crosshairs Wednesday as investors digest the latest Consumer Price Index. The reading may be one more sign that inflation remains a problem that isn't going away.
对于寻求保护的投资者来说，这是一个棘手的局面，但也有一些好的方法可以实现。
It's a tricky situation for investors looking for protection, but there are some good ways to get it.
通胀保值国债（TIPS）是一种选择，其“真实”收益率目前处于数十年来的高位。除了TIPS，分析师还建议投资商品、基础设施以及其他能够对冲价格上涨的资产。
Treasury Inflation-Protected securities (TIPS) are one option with "real" yields now at multi-decade highs. Beyond TIPS, analysts suggest commodities, infrastructure, and other assets that can hedge against rising prices.
尽管通胀已从2022年9.1%的峰值大幅下降——那是由于新冠疫情导致的供给冲击——但它仍然远高于美联储2%的目标。预计9月份的总体消费者物价指数将达到3.6%，部分原因是与伊朗战争导致的能源成本上升。美联储偏好的个人消费支出指数在8月份的核心率为3%。
While inflation is down sharply from its 9.1% peak in 2022 — a supply shock due to the Covid pandemic — it's still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The headline Consumer Price Index is expected to hit 3.6% in September, partly due to rising energy costs stemming from the war with Iran. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred gauge, was at a 3% core rate in August.
美国人的通胀担忧也在上升。纽约联储的消费者期望调查显示，9月份的一年期通胀预期升至3.9%，这是自2023年5月以来的最高水平。
Americans' inflation concerns are also rising. The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed the one-year inflation outlook in September climbed to 3.9%, its highest level since May 2023.
尽管名字如此，但TIPS今年并未提供太多通胀保护。跟踪ICE美国通胀挂钩国债指数的iShares TIPS债券ETF，年内总回报率为-1.16%。
Despite their name, TIPS haven't provided much inflation protection this year. The iShares TIPS Bond ETF, which tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury Inflation Linked Bond Index, has a total return of -1.16% year-to-date.
与大多数其他债券一样，TIPS也受到了利率上升的严重冲击——最近10年期国债收益率一度升至约5.3%的多年高点。债券价格和收益率呈反向变动，随着利率上升，许多TIPS基金遭受了损失。
Like most other bonds, TIPS have been hit hard by rising interest rates — with the 10-year Treasury note recently hitting multi-year highs around 5.3%. Bond prices and yields move inversely, and as rates climbed many TIPS funds suffered.
但收益率上升也使TIPS变得更具吸引力。根据TradeWeb的数据，10年期TIPS收益率目前为2.87%，而在10月5日收盘时为2.951%，这一水平自2008年11月以来首次出现。
But rising yields have made TIPS more attractive. The 10-year TIPS yield is currently at 2.87%, after closing at 2.951% on Oct. 5, levels not seen since November 2008, according to TradeWeb.
“考虑到当前的利率水平，这变得很有趣了，”UBS全球财富管理部美洲地区资产配置主管Jason Draho表示。
"Given where rates are, it's getting interesting," says Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.
TIPS 支付固定票面利率，但随着通胀上升，债券的本金价值会增加。这些调整反映了通胀的变化，基于所有城市消费者的非季节性调整 CPI，且存在三个月的滞后。
TIPS pay a fixed coupon, or interest rate, but as inflation moves higher, the principal value of the bond increases. The adjustments reflect changes in inflation, based on the non-seasonally adjusted CPI for All Urban Consumers, with a three-month lag.
其结果是，TIPS 投资者在一段时间内以更高的本金价值获得利息。这就是与传统国债相比的保护本质。
The upshot is that TIPS investors earn interest on a higher principal value over time. That's the essence of the protection compared to traditional Treasuries.
今年 TIPS 表现不佳并非由于通胀预期激增。几乎所有的增长都是由于实际收益率上升 — — 名义收益率减去预期通胀。实际收益率上升是由于诸如强劲的经济增长以及美国财政赤字占国内生产总值约 6%（需要更多政府借贷）等因素。
TIPS' poor performance this year isn't because of a surge in inflation expectations. Almost all the increase has been due to rising real yields — the nominal yield minus expected inflation. Real yields are up because of factors like robust economic growth and a U.S. fiscal deficit around 6% of gross domestic product (requiring far more government borrowing).
如果名义利率仅因通胀上升，那么 TIPS 的总回报 — — 收益率和价格的组合 — — 将会表现良好，联合赫尔梅斯全球固定收益首席投资官 R.J. Gallo 表示。但事实并非如此。
“TIPS 因其收入累计不足以抵消由实际收益率上升导致的价格下跌，而在总回报上出现亏损，” Gallo 解释道。
If nominal rates were rising just due to inflation, then TIPS total return — a mix of yield and price — would be fine, said R.J. Gallo, chief investment officer of global fixed income at Federated Hermes. But that isn't the case. "TIPS have produced losses in total return because their income accruals have been insufficient to offset the price decline produced by the rising underlying real yields," Gallo explained.
Draho 表示，10 年或更长期限到期的 TIPS 对久期风险高度敏感。“如果你购买 TIPS，尤其是 10 年以上的长期品种，实际上是在押注利率不会进一步上升，” 他指出。
TIPS maturing in 10 years or more are highly sensitive to duration risk, Draho notes. "You're making a big call on rates not rising any further if you buy TIPS, especially longer maturities of 10-year plus," he said.
看涨的情况是通胀下降速度快于预期。但基于短期国债收益率，这并非市场预期，Draho 指出。不过，如果通胀在他预期的明年有所缓解，收益率曲线将会下调。
The bull case is that inflation comes down quicker than expected. That's not the market's expectation, based on short-term Treasury yields, notes Draho. But if inflation does ease next year, which he expects, the yield curve would adjust lower.
管理久期风险的一种方式是持有个别 TIPS，而不是持有必须维持与基准指数一致久期的基金。例如，投资者可以根据未来十年的收入需求，构建一个到期日各不相同的 TIPS 债券阶梯。
One way to manage duration risk is to own individual TIPS rather than a fund that has to maintain duration consistent with a benchmark index. Investors could create a TIPS bond ladder with varying maturities, pegged to their income needs over the next decade, for instance.
如果持有TIPS到期，可能会经历价格波动，但到期时将获得本金或通胀调整后价格中的较高者。
If you hold a TIPS to maturity you may experience price volatility, but you'll get the original principal or inflation-adjusted price, whichever is greater, when the bond matures.
短期TIPS在防范利率上升方面提供更多保护，且看起来很有吸引力，PIMCO投资组合经理格雷格·沙伦诺表示。
Short-term TIPS provide more protection against rate increases and they look attractive, said PIMCO portfolio manager Greg Sharenow.
“虽然作为一家公司，我们认为通胀最终会下降，但随着现实世界事件的发展，这一观点一直被推迟，”他说。“在过去五到七年里，我们反复看到——如今我们正处于第三次供应冲击之中——最终你会发现自己实际上低估了实际通胀，”他补充道。
"While as a firm, our view is that inflation will ultimately come down, that view keeps on being pushed out as real world events unfold," he said. "We've seen over and over again the last five to seven years — where we're now in our third supply shock — that you end up actually underpricing versus realized inflation," he added.
专注于短期TIPS的基金包括先锋短期通胀保值证券ETF、iShares 0-5年TIPS债券ETF以及PIMCO 1-5年美国TIPS指数ETF。
Funds focusing on short-term TIPS include Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF, iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF and PIMCO 1-5 Year US TIPS Index ETF.
当然，TIPS并不是唯一的选择。贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德建议采取多管齐下的策略，包括股票、大宗商品和另类资产。
TIPS, of course, aren't the only way to go. Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer for global fixed income, suggests a multi-pronged strategy, including equities, commodities, and alternative assets.
“我会先增加更多收入来源，保持利率敞口适度，然后很多人正在做的事情是利用另类资产来为投资组合创造更多平衡，”他说。”这对我来说很有道理。”广泛的通胀保护基金包括道富多资产真实回报ETF、富达战略真实回报基金以及PIMCO通胀应对多资产基金。
"I'd start layering in more income, keep interest-rate exposure moderate, and then what a lot of people are doing is use things like alternatives to to create more balance in a portfolio," he said. "That makes a lot of sense to me." Broad inflation-protection funds include State Street Multi-Asset Real Return ETF, Fidelity Strategic Real Return Fund and PIMCO Inflation Response Multi-Asset Fund.
该PIMCO基金的持仓包括TIPS、大宗商品、黄金和房地产投资信托。
The PIMCO fund's holdings include TIPS, commodities, gold and real estate investment trusts.
“其理念是拥有多种不同的敞口，这样我们就能获得更平衡的回报，而不必试图在任何特定时刻精准地选择正确的资产类别，”该基金经理沙伦诺表示。
"The idea is to have a number of different exposures so that we can have a more balanced return and not try to be so specific in getting the exact right asset class at any one moment," said Sharenow, a manager on the fund.
他补充说，他看到通胀保值国债（TIPS）具有“显著价值”，该资产在投资组合中的权重最高。大宗商品是第二大持仓。它们具有价格“传导”机制，即企业通过涨价将成本转嫁给客户的程度。他指出，这对投资者有利。
He adds that he sees "significant value" in TIPS, which have the heaviest weighting in the portfolio. Commodities are the next largest holding. They have price "pass-throughs," which is how much companies can shift costs to customers through price increases. That is beneficial to investors, he noted.
此外，该基金在黄金和房地产投资信托基金（REITs）上各持仓约 10%。
Separately, the fund holds about 10% each in gold and REITs.
德拉霍推荐大宗商品，部分依据是包含 1970 年代（当时通胀高得多）的长期资产配置研究。“在长期来看，它们有助于降低风险并改善分散投资，”他说。“当通胀超出预期时，其优势最为明显。”他建议持有一篮子大宗商品并定期再平衡，而非挑选个别品种。例如，黄金和石油在不同的经济和货币政策情境下表现优异，要把握准确的时机颇为棘手。
Draho recommends commodities, based partly on long-term asset-allocation studies that include the 1970s when inflation was far higher. "Over a long period they can help reduce risk and improve diversification," he said. "Their benefits have been most pronounced when inflation was overshooting expectations." Rather than picking individual commodities, he suggests owning a basket that's consistently rebalanced. Gold and oil, for instance, perform well in different economic and monetary policy scenarios, and it can be tricky to get the timing right.
可考虑的大宗商品 ETF 包括 Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy ETF（PDBC）和 iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust（GSG）。
Commodity ETFs to consider include the Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy ETF (PDBC) and the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG).
德拉霍建议的另一类资产是基础设施——公路、港口、桥梁等硬性资产的运营商。该领域公司多属于“收费方”，依据包含通胀挂钩条款或内置价格调整机制的合同收取长期收入。
Another asset class Draho suggests is infrastructure — operators of roads, ports, bridges, and other hard assets. Companies in the space tend to be toll takers, collecting long-term revenue under contracts that include inflation riders or built-in price adjustments.
投资者可通过 iShares Global Infrastructure ETF（IGF）和 ProShares DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure ETF（TOLZ）等 ETF 配置基础设施资产。
Investors can get exposure to infrastructure through ETFs such as the iShares Global Infrastructure ETF (IGF) and ProShares DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure ETF (TOLZ).
德拉霍并未对通胀发出警报，但表示增加防范通胀再度上行的保护是合理的。“目前的风险在于，供给侧冲击可能再次推高通胀，”他说。
Draho isn't sounding alarms on inflation but says it makes sense to add protection against another move higher. "The risk now is there will be supply side shocks that could push up inflation again," he said.