Buoyed by a string of encouraging polls, Democrats have grown more confident about the outcome of next month’s midterm elections. But the 2028 map is another story.

In the seven states most likely to decide the next presidential race, a generic Democrat and a generic Republican are tied at 45%, with 10% of voters undecided, according to new polling from Project 270, a newly launched independent Democratic research initiative.

The findings, shared first with MS NOW, are an early warning for Democrats heading into what could be a crowded 2028 primary. Frustration with President Donald Trump hasn’t translated into enthusiasm for the party, and many battleground voters remain unconvinced that Democrats have answers to the country’s problems.

Only 38% ofed voters surveyed in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin view the Democratic Party favorably, while 57% view it unfavorably — a standing roughly as poor as Republicans’.

“I am tired of losing to MAGA,” Rahna Epting, a Project 270 co-founder and former executive director of MoveOn, told MS NOW. “We need to collectively come together to win.”Epting launched Project 270 with Xochitl Hinojosa, a former Democratic National Committee communications director, to give presidential hopefuls a clearer picture of the voters they will need to win a general election. The goal is to keep Democratic contenders from losing sight of that broader electorate while they compete for the party’s primary voters.

“Often during primaries, we are so focused on the primary conversation that we’re not thinking about the both sides of the equation, and that we also must win the general,” Epting said.

The group plans to publicly release polling and research about once a month throughout the 2028 cycle. It will test potential nominees, policy messages and head-to-head matchups against prominent Republicans, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The first round of research exposes vulnerabilities with two groups that have long been central to Democratic victories: Black and Latino voters. While Trump’s 2024 gains with those voters appear to be fading, skepticism toward Democrats remains pronounced.

A quarter of Black voters surveyed view the Democratic Party unfavorably. That share rises to 34% among Black men and 31% among Black voters under 50.

Latino voters are nearly evenly split, with 45% viewing Democrats favorably and 44% unfavorably. Among Latino men, the numbers are worse for the party: 52% view it unfavorably, compared with 42% who view it favorably.

“Democrats have an opening because many of these voters are clearly not feeling like they got what they voted for in 2024, but again, it is not a guarantee that they come back,” said Molly Murphy, a pollster and campaign strategist working with Project 270. “Democrats have to earn it.”The party’s economic credibility presents another significant challenge. Only 26% of respondents agreed that Democrats run the economy well, while 46% said the party has the wrong ideas about how to manage it.

That matters because affordability remains a central concern for voters grappling with the high cost of groceries, housing, utilities and other everyday expenses. The cost of living is already a defining issue in the midterms, and the research suggests it will shape the 2028 presidential race as well.

Epting said Democrats must confront their damaged party brand by putting forward candidates who can establish their own identities and articulate a compelling economic vision.

“If labels do not help us here, it is really the individual candidates that help,” Epting said, arguing that candidates must distinguish themselves through their vision for the country and the people they hope to represent.

The poll also found broad frustration with the influence of corporate money in politics, a theme long championed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and the party’s progressive wing.

Asked why meaningful political change fails to materialize, 53% of respondents said politicians are beholden to large corporations that manipulate the system to advance their own interests. Another 36% blamed extreme partisanship and politicians more focused on fighting one another, while 11% were unsure.

“Bernie — for decades — has been articulating a theory on why things aren’t working for people, and [it] turns out that theory is resonating and is starting to make sense to a lot more people,” Epting said.

The results suggest that a message of economic populism and opposition to corporate influence could resonate beyond the Democratic primary electorate, potentially giving candidates an opening with voters who are dissatisfied with both parties.

But they also suggest that criticizing Trump or promising bipartisan cooperation won’t be enough. Voters want candidates who will take on a political and economic system they believe favors wealthy individuals and powerful corporations over everyday Americans.

“They’re actually trying to fix a broken system that is bigger than just the politicians involved,” Murphy said.

Voters are wary of the MAGA movement: 56% said it would be bad for the country if the next Republican president were part of it, compared with 35% who said it would be good. But that doesn’t mean they’ve ruled out Republicans. Early hypothetical matchups between a generic Democrat and Vance or Rubio are essentially tied, a sign that opposition to MAGA hasn’t translated into a clear preference for Democrats.

Impact Research conducted the survey Sept. 14-23 in partnership with Equis and HIT Strategies, interviewing 2,000ed voters across the seven battleground states, including oversampling of 250 Black voters and 250 Latino voters. Eighty-five percent of interviews were conducted by cellphone. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points and higher for subgroups.

A strong Democratic showing next month would not necessarily fix the party’s deeper problems with its image, its economic credibility and its appeal to swing voters.

“Past elections are not future guarantees,” Murphy said. “This does not mean that the wind is just at our backs because we’ve had a potentially successful election.”

“Voters are shopping,” Murphy continued. “They are going to be examining both sides.”For a party eager to reclaim the White House, Project 270’s first round of research delivers a pointed message: Opposition to Trump is not enough to win the 270 electoral votes needed to elect the next president. The post Democrats feel good about November. The 2028 map is another story.