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报告显示:气候风险加剧,保险业正在收缩Insurance Pullback Is Coming as Climate Risk Grows, Report Shows

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伦敦的房屋。摄影师:杰森·奥尔登/彭博社Houses in London. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

根据英国非营利组织Inside Track发布的一份报告,保险公司正在撤回对气候驱动风险的保障,并越来越多地将损失转嫁给政府和房主。

Insurers are withdrawing coverage for climate-driven risks and increasingly passing on losses to governments and homeowners, according to a report published by UK-based nonprofit Inside Track.

这一警告加剧了业界其他人士公开表达的担忧。上个月,英国保诚集团首席执行官阿曼达·布兰克表示,如今在英国建造的房屋已经因洪水风险上升而面临无法投保的情况。而安联SE董事厄恩斯特·塔林格也曾表示,“整个地区”可能因气候变化而变得无法投保。

The warning adds to concerns voiced publicly by others in the industry. Last month, Aviva Chief Executive Officer Amanda Blanc said homes being built in the UK today already face uninsurability due to rising flood risks. And Günther Thallinger, a director at Allianz SE, has said that “entire regions” risk becoming uninsurable due to climate change.

该报告由Inside Track发布,其内容基于来自英国及欧洲其他地区约两 dozen 位高级保险专业人士提供的信息。报告指出,部分撤保“已经开始,并且将进一步加速”。报告称,其结果将是“未投保损失的增加,而其他人将不得不承担代价”。该报告于周三发布。

According to the report by Inside Track, which is based on information provided by two-dozen senior insurance professionals in the UK and the rest of Europe, some of the retreat “has already begun and will now accelerate.”The result will be “an increase in uninsured losses for which someone else will have to pay the price,” said the report, which was published on Wednesday.

报告还指出,目前风险可能被错误定价,报告中包含了伦敦经济学院格兰瑟姆气候变暖与环境研究所主席尼古拉斯·斯特恩男爵的评论。

There are also concerns that risks are currently being mispriced, according to the report, which included a commentary by Lord Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics.

他说:“为生计而定价风险的人们正从内部发出警告,我们的模型低估了危险。”他补充道:“这种错误定价的风险正在积累,可能达到难以管理的水平。”

“The people who price risk for a living are warning, from the inside, that our models have underestimated the danger,” he said. “And that mispriced risk is building to potentially unmanageable levels.”A spokesperson for the Association of British Insurers said the industry invests “significantly” in understanding the risks it faces, including through scenario analysis and risk assessments.

英国保险协会的一位发言人表示,该行业“在很大程度上”投入资源以了解其面临的风险,包括通过情景分析和风险评估。

“However, resilience cannot be delivered by insurers alone and requires action from across government, industry, and society as a whole,” the spokesperson said, adding that insurers are subject to “robust” regulation to ensure they can withstand significant economic shocks.

然而,该发言人补充道:“仅靠保险公司无法实现韧性,还需要政府、行业和整个社会共同行动。”他还表示,保险公司受到“严格”的监管,以确保其能够承受重大经济冲击。欧洲保险协会的一位发言人暂时无法置评。

A spokesperson for Insurance Europe wasn’t immediately able to respond.

安东尼·霍布利(Anthony Hobley)此前直至不久前一直担任霍登集团控股公司(Howden Group Holdings)气候风险与韧性副主席,他在最近的一篇领英(LinkedIn)帖子中写道,保险行业对物理风险拥有最佳的“前瞻视角”。但其主要以一年期保险单的形式部署这种专业知识。“我们的定价能力始终只能按十二个月来部署,”他说。

Anthony Hobley, who until recently was the deputy chair for climate risk and resilience at Howden Group Holdings, wrote in a recent LinkedIn post that the insurance industry has the best “forward view” of physical risk. But it mostly deploys that expertise in the form of one-year insurance policies. “Our pricing skill is only ever deployed twelve months at a time,” he said.

“这无法帮助客户在长期内管理风险,或保持可投保性。”财产保险公司已经在加州针对野火损失、在佛罗里达州和路易斯安那州针对飓风风险收回甚至取消了保单。欧洲保险和职业养老金管理局(European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority)表示,目前欧洲仅有四分之一的自然灾害损失得到保障,这使该大陆面临“新的风险范式”。

“It does not help clients manage risk over the long term, or stay insurable.”Property insurers have already scaled back — or even canceled — policies for wildfire losses in California, and for hurricane risk in Florida and Louisiana. In Europe, only a quarter of natural catastrophe losses are currently covered, leaving the continent facing “a new risk paradigm,” according to the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority.

英格兰银行去年指出,保险公司在将气候相关风险纳入资产和负债估值时,“并不总是保持一致”。

The Bank of England noted last year that insurers are “not always consistent” in how they value assets and liabilities when incorporating climate-related risk.

《内部追踪》(Inside Track)成立于2025年初,旨在为内部人士提供一个安全分享其经历的论坛。该网站称,它通过自身研究验证所收集的见解,同时保护参与者的身份。彭博社采访了为该报告作出贡献的若干保险业内人士,他们均以匿名条件接受采访。

Inside Track, which was established in early 2025 as a forum for insiders to safely share their accounts, says on its website that it validates the insights it gathers through its own research, while protecting participants’ identities. Bloomberg interviewed some of the insurance insiders who contributed to the report, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity.