曼谷——菲律宾央行正针对“哥斯拉级”厄尔尼诺现象叠加长期石油冲击的情况进行规划，该东南亚国家正试图将通胀率从三年高点抑制下来。
BANGKOK — The Philippine central bank is planning for a "Godzilla" El Niño on top of a prolonged oil shock, as the Southeast Asian nation tries to rein in inflation from three-year highs.
行长埃利·雷莫洛纳（Eli Remolona）表示，菲律宾中央银行目前在制定政策时，会使用将油价和天气事件严重程度纳入考量的方案。他在周三于曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会的一个小组讨论会上说：“我们有常规的、普通的厄尔尼诺现象，这已经很糟糕了，然后我们还有‘哥斯拉级’厄尔尼诺现象，那真的、真的非常糟糕。”
Governor Eli Remolona said Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas now sets policy using scenarios that factor in oil prices and the severity of the weather event. "We have the regular, ordinary El Niño, which is bad, and then we have the Godzilla El Niño, which is really, really bad," he said Wednesday on a panel at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
他说，厄尔尼诺现象对物价影响最严重的时期尚未到来，预计影响将从11月持续到明年2月，并补充称，维持物价稳定仍然是央行的首要任务。
The worst of El Niño's impact on prices is still to come, with the effects expected from November through February, he said, adding that maintaining price stability remains the central bank's priority.
他说：“我们正屏息以待，但我们必须为最坏的情况做好准备。”这种迫在眉睫的天气风险正给东南亚最脆弱的经济体之一增加新的压力。据菲律宾统计局数据显示，菲律宾的通胀率从8月的6.1%加速至9月的7.2%，其中大米价格上涨了18%。
"We're holding our breath," he said, "but we have to be prepared for the worst." The looming weather risk is adding fresh pressure on one of Southeast Asia's most vulnerable economies. Philippine inflation accelerated to 7.2% in September from 6.1% in August, with rice prices up 18%, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
作为全球最大的大米进口国，菲律宾也面临着粮食供应风险。农业部长弗朗西斯科·蒂乌·劳雷尔（Francisco Tiu Laurel）警告称，新一轮干旱可能会挤压国内供应。菲律宾增加采购量可能会给本已受到厄尔尼诺现象和出口限制冲击的全球市场增加需求。联合国粮食及农业组织已连续六个月上调大米价格指数，使其达到20个月来的最高水平。
The world's biggest rice importer is also exposed to food supply risk. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel has warned that a fresh drought could squeeze domestic supply. Larger Philippine purchases could add demand to a global market already jolted by El Niño and export curbs. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has raised its rice price index for six consecutive months to a 20-month high.
为抑制失控的通胀，菲律宾央行在8月将基准利率上调了25个基点至5%。
The central bank lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5% in August to keep a lid on the runaway inflation.
汇丰银行东盟高级经济学家阿里斯·达卡奈（Aris Dacanay）在周三的一份报告中表示，菲律宾央行应在下周将利率再上调25个基点至5.25%，随后在12月再进行同等幅度的加息。
The BSP should deliver another quarter-percentage hike next week to 5.25%, followed by another same-sized hike in December, according to Aris Dacanay, senior ASEAN economist at HSBC Bank, in a note Wednesday.