美国银行表示，如果第四季度的经济增长减弱幅度超过北京的承受能力，中国可能会推出更多的经济支持措施。
China could roll out additional economic support if growth weakened in the last three months more than Beijing could tolerate, according to Bank of America Corp.
美银全球研究大中华区首席经济学家乔虹表示，定于周一发布的季度数据将帮助决策者在9月推出“定向刺激”一揽子计划后，决定是否采取进一步行动。中国官员经常就经济和市场情绪征询包括美国银行在内的外资银行的意见，乔虹最近访问了北京并参与了这样一轮讨论。
Quarterly data due on Monday will help policymakers decide whether to take further action after delivering a “targeted stimulus” package in September, said Helen Qiao, chief economist for greater China at BofA Global Research. Chinese officials regularly consult foreign banks, including BofA, about the economy and market sentiment, and Qiao recently visited Beijing for one such round of discussions.
兼任该行亚洲经济研究主管的乔虹在曼谷出席国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会期间接受彭博社采访时表示：“如果第三季度数据表现不佳，政府可能会推出另一揽子措施，发出政策正在转向的更强烈信号。”
“If the third-quarter data look bad, the government could introduce another package of measures to send a stronger message that policies are turning,” Qiao, who’s also the bank’s head of Asia economics research, said in an interview with Bloomberg on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Bangkok.
中国计划发布国内生产总值、工业产出、投资和消费等数据，这将提供自第二季度经济增长滑落至北京4.5%至5%的年度目标以下以来对经济最全面的评估。
China is scheduled to release figures including gross domestic product, industrial output, investment and consumption, offering the most comprehensive assessment of the economy since growth slid below Beijing’s annual target of 4.5% to 5% in the second quarter.
北京自9月下旬以来公布了一揽子有限的支持措施，包括房贷补贴、扩大央行低成本贷款以及增加地方政府今年的借贷额度。迄今为止，北京一直在避免采取更具侵略性的措施，例如广泛降息或大幅增加地方政府债券发行以资助投资。
Beijing has unveiled a limited package of support starting in late September, including mortgage subsidies, expanded low-cost central bank lending and additional quota for local authorities to borrow this year. It has so far avoided more aggressive measures such as broad interest-rate cuts or a major increase in local-government bond issuance to fund investment.
周三发布的各项指标凸显了经济对外部需求的依赖日益加深。9月份出口额较去年同期激增36%，进口额增长31%，产生了近1,340亿美元的贸易顺差。
Indicators released Wednesday underscore the economy’s growing reliance on external demand. Exports surged 36% in September from a year earlier and imports rose 31%, producing a nearly $134 billion trade surplus.
经济学家普遍预测第三季度国内生产总值同比增长4.5%，并预计在各项新政策的推动下，经济能够实现北京的年度目标。一些分析师估计，为了实现目标，中国下半年的平均经济增长必须超过4.3%。
Economists broadly forecast third-quarter GDP growth to come in at 4.5% on year and expect the economy to be able to achieve Beijing’s annual goal with the boost from the new policies. Some analysts estimate growth must average more than 4.3% in the second half for China to meet the target.
乔虹表示，仍需要降息和降低银行存款准备金率来配合财政政策。她说，北京还可以考虑向消费者提供更直接的补贴，以鼓励家庭消费。
Qiao said cuts to interest rates and the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve are still needed to complement fiscal policy. Beijing could also consider providing more direct subsidies to consumers to encourage household spending, she said.
她将北京迄今为止的谨慎态度归结为两个因素。强劲的出口降低了刺激国内需求的紧迫性，而官员们也越来越担心，随着经济寻找新的增长引擎，进一步的宽松政策可能只能带来有限的收益。她说，目前的大规模干预也可能会侵蚀在更严重的经济低迷时期所需的政策空间。
She attributed Beijing’s cautious approach so far to two factors. Strong exports have reduced the urgency to stimulate domestic demand, while officials are increasingly concerned that additional easing may deliver only limited benefits as the economy searches for a new growth engine. Large-scale intervention now could also erode policy space needed in a more serious downturn, she said.
乔虹预计，政府明年的债券发行额度将与2026年获批的水平相近。她说，随着“六张网”项目开工建设，投资可能会回升。
Qiao expects the government to set next year’s bond-issuance quota at a similar level to what was granted for 2026. Investment will likely pick up as construction gets under way on the “Six Networks” project, she said.
她表示，到2027年以后，与人工智能相关的产业可能会在两到三年内发展到足够大的规模，以填补中国长达数年的房地产低迷留下的空白。
Beyond 2027, industries linked to artificial intelligence could grow large enough within two to three years to fill the gap left by China’s prolonged property slump, she said.