字号·· | 护眼
彭博社

无领袖学生如何挑战塞尔维亚强人的统治How Leaderless Students Are Challenging Serbian Strongman’s Grip

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

人们于9月在贝尔格莱德游行,以示对“学生名单”的支持。摄影:奥利维尔·布尼奇(Oliver Bunic)/法新社/盖蒂图片社People march in support of Student List in Belgrade, in September. Photographer: Oliver Bunic/AFP/Getty Images

从尼泊尔到捷克斯洛伐克和格鲁吉亚,历史上有大量学生抗议迫使政府下台的例子。塞尔维亚的学生则采取了不同的方法:他们正试图通过投票箱结束领导人亚历山大·武契奇长达十年的统治。

From Nepal to Czechoslovakia and Georgia, history offers plenty of examples of student protests forcing a government from office. Serbia’s students are taking a different approach: They’re trying to end leader Aleksandar Vucic’s decade-long rule through the ballot box.

民调显示,“学生名单”运动有一定的机会赶下武契奇。此前,为了回应反对所谓政府腐败的示威活动,武契奇宣布于10月25日提前举行议会选举。

Polling suggests the Student List movement has some chance of ousting Vucic, who called a snap parliamentary election for Oct. 25 in response to demonstrations against alleged government corruption.

这并不是说一名十几岁的本科生可能很快就会掌握这个巴尔干国家的权力杠杆。该运动由形形色色的“全体大会”组成,他们大多挑选了受薪学者——教授和研究生——以及其他行业的成员作为候选人,与武契奇的塞尔维亚前进党展开竞争。

That’s not to say a teenage undergraduate may soon grasp the levers of power in the Balkan nation. The movement’s patchwork of “plenums” have mostly chosen paid academics — professors and postgraduates — and members of other professions as candidates to stand against Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party.

“学生名单”的头号候选人——最有可能在议会赢得席位的提名人——是伊利亚·斯尔达诺维奇,现年56岁,来自首都贝尔格莱德,是一名医学教授兼心脏病专家。他不一定是该组织的总理人选,因为该集团避免指定该职位的首选候选人。

Student List’s top candidate — its nominee most likely to win a seat in the assembly — is Ilija Srdanovic, a 56-year-old medicine professor and cardiologist from the capital Belgrade. He isn’t necessarily the group’s choice for prime minister, as it’s avoided naming a preferred candidate for the post.

这一决定符合这个政治初创组织的去中心化组织方法。它没有明确的领导人,而是通过全体大会运作——基层小组各自向一个伞形组织贡献想法,由该伞形组织确定运动的大致方向。成员轮流公开露面,以免任何单个人物过于引人注目。决策过程刻意保持不透明,目前尚不清楚他们将如何挑选执政内阁。

The decision is in keeping with the political startup’s decentralized organizational approach. It has no clear leader, and operates through plenums — grass-roots cells that each contribute ideas to an umbrella group that sets the movement’s general direction. Members take turns in making public appearances so that no single figure gains too high a profile. Decision making is deliberately opaque, and it’s not clear how they would pick a governing cabinet.

打击腐败是该集团的首要任务。武契奇监督了塞尔维亚经济的复苏,在他的任期内,该国的经济产出增加了两倍。但他赢得了微观管理的声誉,他的政府一直在直接发放大型基础设施开发合同,而不是通过公开招标,从而导致了腐败指控。

Fighting corruption is the group’s top priority. Vucic has overseen a revival of Serbia’s economy and the nation’s economic output has tripled during his tenure. But he’s gained a reputation for micromanaging, and his government has been handing out big infrastructure development contracts directly instead of using public tenders, leading to allegations of corruption.

“学生名单”表示,它将打击抽走公共财政资金的贪腐行为、打破阻碍公平竞争的垄断,并审查武契奇政府签署的所有大合同。它还将挑战向外国投资者出售国家资产的行为,并优先考虑对矿产和其他资源的国内控制。

Student List says it would fight graft that drains money from the public purse, break up monopolies that hinder fair competition and review all large contracts signed by Vucic’s administration. It would also challenge the sale of national assets to foreign investors and prioritize domestic control of mineral and other resources.

亚历山大·武契奇Aleksandar Vucic

为了给公共生活带来更多透明度,该党将打击法律系统中察觉到的腐败,全面整顿司法机构,并调查非法获取或未申报的资产。其主要活动人士曾讨论建立一个特别检察警察部队来调查权力滥用。在某些问题上,该党表现出与武契奇遗产的延续性。

To bring more transparency to public life, the party would crack down on perceived corruption in the legal system, overhaul the judiciary and investigate illegally acquired or undeclared assets. Its leading activists have talked of creating a special prosecutorial police force to investigate abuses of power. On some issues, the party has signaled continuity with Vucic’s legacy.

这位总统维持了(但没有果断推进)塞尔维亚加入欧盟的长期竞标,同时寻求美国和中国的投资,并与俄罗斯保持亲切关系,以保持获取廉价天然气的渠道。与武契奇一样,“学生名单”不会加入西方对俄罗斯的制裁,该运动认为俄罗斯是一个有影响力的国家和重要的能源来源。该运动拒绝承认科索沃的任何独立,科索沃于2008年单方面宣布脱离塞尔维亚独立。俄罗斯和中国长期以来一直支持塞尔维亚对该领土的主张。

The president has maintained, but not decisively pushed, Serbia’s longstanding bid to join the European Union, while seeking US and Chinese investments and maintaining cordial relations with Russia to preserve access to its cheap natural gas. Like Vucic, Student List would not join western sanctions on Russia, which it sees as an influential nation and an important source of energy. And the movement rejects any recognition of Kosovo, which unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008. Russia and China have long supported Serbia’s claim over the territory.

武契奇培养了塞尔维亚正教会的支持,以巩固其民族主义议程,“学生名单”的活动人士在他们的一些集会上也表现出了对该机构的类似支持。

Vucic has cultivated the backing of the Serbian Orthodox Church to bolster his nationalist agenda, and Student List activists have displayed similar support for the institution at some of their rallies.

武契奇似乎占上风,但结果尚不确定。一些民意调查显示,他的政党领先多达10个百分点。另一些民调则显示“学生名单”以几乎相同的幅度领先。特内奥咨询公司估计武契奇获胜的几率为50%,“学生名单”为35%,而悬而未决、存在争议的结果为15%。过去的选举曾出现过操纵选票的指控,武契奇的挑战者表示,他们怀疑他的追随者会试图篡改选票。他的政党对此予以否认。该党表示,其对手正试图为他们不可避免的选举失利辩解并破坏政府。

Vucic appears to have the edge, but the outcome is uncertain. Some opinion polls show his party leading by as much as 10 percentage points. Others have Student List ahead by almost the same margin. Teneo consultancy put the chances of a Vucic win at 50%, Student List at 35% and an inconclusive, contested outcome at 15%. Past elections have seen accusations of vote rigging, and Vucic’s challengers say they suspect his followers will try to tamper with ballots. His party denies this. It says its opponents are trying to justify their inevitable election loss and undermine the government.

在他宣布提前投票之前,武契奇的总统任期原定于明年5月到期。他现在正在寻求下一届政府的总理职位,以此作为绕过总统任期限制的方法。

Before he called the snap vote, Vucic’s presidential mandate was set to expire in May next year. He is now seeking the post of prime minister in the next government as a way to side-step presidential term limits.

在武契奇的领导下,塞尔维亚的家庭收入几乎增加了两倍,大型基础设施项目改变了贝尔格莱德的面貌。但系统性贪腐的指控动摇了民众对他政府的支持。许多塞尔维亚人对他的政党在国家生活中压倒性的主导地位,以及在进行关键任命时偏爱忠诚而非能力的声誉感到沮丧。

Household incomes in Serbia have almost tripled and massive infrastructure projects have changed Belgrade’s landscape under Vucic. But accusations of routine graft have undermined popular support for his administration. Many Serbs are frustrated with his party’s overwhelming dominance of national life and reputation for favoring loyalty over competence when making key appointments.

2024年,北部城市诺维萨德一个新装修火车站的顶棚倒塌,造成16人死亡。大学生及其教授领导了反政府集会,将这些死亡归咎于腐败和官方无能。第二年,学生们夺取了大学校园的控制权,并开始要求提前举行选举。他们在社交媒体上发布了引人注目的竞选口号,反对派媒体也播放了他们的广告。到2025年中期,这场最初分散的、临时性的抗议运动已经凝聚成一个令人生畏的政治力量。

In 2024, a canopy at a newly-refurbished train station in the northern city of Novi Sad collapsed, killing 16 people. University students and their professors led anti-government rallies, blaming corruption and official incompetence for the deaths. The following year, the students seized control of university premises and began to demand early elections. They flooded social media with catchy campaign slogans and opposition media outlets ran their ads. By mid-2025, what began as a diffuse, ad-hoc protest movement had coalesced into a formidable political operation.

武契奇的盟友否认该国存在腐败问题。政府官员表示,“学生名单”是由外国势力资助以破坏塞尔维亚稳定的。该运动对此予以否认。

Vucic’s allies have denied the country has a corruption problem. Government officials have said Student List is funded by foreign actors to destabilize Serbia. The movement denies this.

国民议会的250名议员将通过比例代表制选出,每个政党提出一份候选人名单,分配给它的席位数量取决于其在全国选票中所占的份额。首批结果预计将在10月25日晚8点投票结束后数小时内出炉。对结果的可靠预测预计将在晚10点后不久得出。该国定于12月下旬举行另一场总统选举。

The National Assembly’s 250 lawmakers will be chosen using proportional representation, with each party putting forward a list of candidates and the number of seats awarded to it depending on its share of the national vote. The first results are expected within hours of the polls closing at 8 p.m. on Oct. 25. A reliable indication of the result is expected some time after 10 p.m. The country is due to hold a separate presidential election in late December.