AI 服务不太可能产生足够的收入来覆盖从现在到 2030 年间对 IT 基础设施的预期资本支出，而且看起来新云运营商将大多退出或被收购。Gartner 在对未来几年 AI 数据中心的预期投资进行加总、估算同一时期 AI 驱动应用可能产生的收入后得出这一结论，发现数字相差甚远。
AI services are unlikely to deliver enough revenue to cover the expected capital expenditure going into IT infrastructure between now and 2030, and it looks like neocloud operators will largely bow out or be bought out. This is the conclusion from Gartner, which has added up the anticipated investments in AI datacenters over the next several years, estimated the revenue that can be expected from AI-driven applications over the same period, and found the numbers come up short.
Gartner 的数据来源于一份报告《为 AI 市场整合做好准备：资本减记可能在 2032 年前超过 4 万亿美元》，该报告的结论是 AI 在最早 2032 年之前无法产生足够的销售额来盈利覆盖所有计划中的 AI 资本支出。但预测通常聚焦于本十年末，因此报告也对 2030 年的数字进行了计算。
Gartner's data comes from a report, "Prepare for AI Market Consolidation: Capital Write-Downs Could Exceed $4 Trillion by 2032," which concludes that AI will not generate enough sales to profitably cover all of the planned AI capital spending before 2032 at the earliest. But forecasts typically focus on the end of the decade, so it ran the numbers for 2030 as well.
“2026 年，预计 AI 提供商将在 AI 基础设施上支出近 1 万亿美元，并预计在 2027 至 2030 年间再投入 6 万亿美元，”Gartner 高级总监分析师 Will Sommer 说。“然而，我们的研究表明，企业和消费者 AI 收入不足以支撑在此期间所有计划的 AI 资本支出的盈利回报。”
"In 2026, AI providers are expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on AI infrastructure, and are forecast to invest an additional $6 trillion between 2027 and 2030," said Gartner senior director analyst Will Sommer. "However, our research indicates that enterprise and consumer AI revenue will be insufficient to support profitable returns on all planned AI capital expenditures during this period."
假设 12% 的投入资本回报率（ROIC）是许多公司认为的可接受门槛，Gartner 估计 AI 数据中心运营商需要产生总计 8.5 万亿美元的收入，才能在实现该回报的同时覆盖资本支出和融资成本。遗憾的是，报告预测在此期间可归因于 AI 数据中心的企业和消费者 AI 总收入最多只能达到 3.6 万亿美元。
Assuming a 12 percent return on invested capital (ROIC), which many companies are said to regard as the bar for acceptability, Gartner estimates AI datacenter operators would need to generate a total of $8.5 trillion in revenue to cover capital spending and financing costs while achieving that return. Unfortunately, it forecasts that the total enterprise and consumer AI revenue that can be attributed to AI datacenters during this period will add up to no more than $3.6 trillion.
低于预期的回报可能迫使运营商对其资产进行减记，因为这些资产的价值已无法回收，尤其是随着更新的 GPU 替代旧硬件。
Returns below expectations could force operators to write down assets whose value they can no longer recover, particularly as newer GPUs displace older hardware.
结果将是提供AI基础设施服务的公司出现洗牌，而Gartner认为，专注于AI计算的“GPU即服务”提供商——即所谓的新云运营商——将受到最严重的冲击。它预测，到2030年后，80%的这些公司将无法以独立公司的形式继续生存。“并非所有人都陷入困境，”索默尔对《国会山报》表示。“有些公司会表现优异，有些会表现不佳，有些则必须退出市场。”
The result will be a shake-out of the companies providing AI infrastructure services, and Gartner believes that neocloud operators – "GPU-as-a-service" providers specializing in AI compute – will be the hardest hit. It forecasts that 80 percent of them won't survive as independent companies beyond 2030. "Not everyone is in trouble," Sommer told The. "Some will outperform, some will underperform, and some will have to exit the market."
Gartner预计，超大规模云服务商将更好地度过这次洗牌，因为他们的业务不仅限于AI服务。去年，麦肯锡公司警告称，新云公司需要向上移动AI技术栈并实现多元化，以避免被商品化。金融市场对投入AI投资的资本支出规模日益感到不安，一些贷款机构开始犹豫不决。上个月，软银集团发现自己面临更高的借贷成本，因为其科技投资业务正试图为OpenAI筹集更多资金。
Gartner expects the hyperscalers to weather the shake-out better because their businesses extend beyond AI services. Last year, McKinsey & Company warned that neocloud companies need to move up the AI stack and diversify to avoid being commoditized. There has been growing unease in the financial markets over the amount of capex being poured into AI investment, with some money lenders starting to get cold feet. Last month, SoftBank Group found itself facing higher borrowing costs as the tech investment biz sought to drum up further funding for OpenAI.
本周，金融公司Jefferies发布报告称，OpenAI和Anthropic等开发商正面临来自开源模式和中国模型的威胁，这些模型通过更低的价格削弱了它们的盈利能力。管理咨询公司贝恩公司也在上个月发布了一份报告，估计到2031年，AI行业需要每年创造6万亿美元的收入，以维持满足预期需求所需基础设施的资金。贝恩还预测，除非行业开发出尚未被识别的产品和使用场景，否则将出现收入缺口。
Financial biz Jefferies issued a report this week saying that developers such as OpenAI and Anthropic are facing threats to their profitability from open source and Chinese models that undercut them on price. Management consultant Bain & Company also published a report last month estimating that the AI industry needs to generate $6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031 to keep up funding for the infrastructure needed to meet anticipated demand. Bain also forecast a revenue shortfall unless the industry develops products and use cases not yet identified.
国际货币基金组织和国际清算银行均已表达了对AI泡沫破裂及其对全球经济产生连锁反应的担忧。®
Both the IMF and the Bank for International Settlements have voiced concerns about the AI bubble bursting and the effects rippling out across the global economy. ®