字号·· | 护眼
德国之声

伊朗经济困境加剧之际,政治内斗加深Political infighting in Iran deepens as economic woes mount

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

Iran's oil exports have plunged as a result of the US blockade of the Strait of HormuzImage: Asghar Besharati/AP Photo/dpa/picture alliance

强硬派正对伊朗政府施加更大压力,并要求罢免外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇。石油部长莫森·帕克内贾德的辞职也未能缓解对总统马苏德·佩泽什基安的压力。

Hardliners are piling the pressure on Iran’s government and calling for the removal of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad’s resignation is also failing to ease the pressure on President Masoud Pezeshkian.

随着战争持续,寻找解决方案的外交努力进展甚微,内部权力斗争正在加剧。佩泽什基安总统的政府正成为紧张局势的焦点。

As the war continues and diplomatic efforts to find a solution make little headway, the internal power struggle is intensifying. President Pezeshkian’s government is the focus of mounting tension.

伊朗议会的强硬派正推动对阿拉格奇进行弹劾程序。引发不满的导火索是阿拉格奇在纽约联合国大会期间与美国谈判代表的会面。批评者指责这位外交部长未经官方授权进行会谈。

Hardliners in Iran's parliament are pushing for impeachment proceedings against Araghchi. A trigger for the discontent was Araghchi's meeting with US negotiators on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Critics accuse the foreign minister of holding the talks without official authorization.

在一封信中,德黑兰议员阿米尔侯赛因·萨贝蒂告知议会议长穆罕默德-巴格尔·加里巴夫,他已在议会在线门户上提交弹劾阿拉格奇的动议。议员侯赛因-阿里·哈吉-德利加尼也表示,议会可以利用其监督权,包括弹劾程序。

In a letter, Tehran lawmaker Amirhossein Sabeti informed parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf that he haded a motion to impeach Araghchi on parliament’s online portal. Lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji-Deligani also said parliament could use its oversight powers, including impeachment proceedings.

美国居住的政治分析家阿里·阿夫沙里在接受《德国之声》采访时说:“当政权被迫进行谈判,如当前与美国的谈判时,最高领袖或硬核权力集团会回避承担责任,而把责任转嫁给选举产生的机构和政府内部的温和力量。”

"When the regime is forced to negotiate, as it is in the current situation and in talks with the United States, the supreme leader or the hardline core of power avoids taking responsibility and shifts it onto elected institutions and moderate forces within the government," political analyst Ali Afshari, who lives in the United States, told DW.

阿夫沙里指出,强硬派可以利用这种做法攻击温和派,针对此前在权力机构内部已达成一致的决定。他补充说,强硬派在伊斯兰共和国中发挥重要作用。

Hardliners can use this approach to attack moderate factions over decisions that were previously agreed upon within the power apparatus, Afshari said. He added that hardliners serve an important function within the Islamic Republic.

“强硬派在伊斯兰共和国的角色是影响公众舆论、政治体制的传统支持者以及伊斯兰共和国在国内外政策方面的价值观,”他说。

"The role of hardliners in the Islamic Republic is to influence public opinion, the political system's traditional supporters and the values of the Islamic Republic in both domestic and foreign policy," he said.

在《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA,即2015年核协议)执行期间,强硬派在议会中占据多数席位,并表达了政治上的反对。然而,他们的抵制最终并未影响该协议的执行。

Hardliners held a parliamentary majority during the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal, and voiced their political opposition. Their resistance, however, ultimately did not affect theg of the agreement.

阿夫沙里表示:“外交部不是决策者。它执行政府要求它做的事情——阿拉格奇正是在这一框架内行事。”议员们必须首先收集到规定数量的签名,才能推进弹劾程序。

"The Foreign Ministry is not a decision-maker. It implements what the government asks of it — and Araghchi is operating within that framework," Afshari said. Lawmakers must first collect a set number of signatures to move forward with impeachment proceedings.

最新举动的时间点意义重大:伊朗政府正面临巨大的经济压力。与此同时,作为该国主要收入来源之一的石油出口,因美国封锁而大幅下降。

The timing of the latest move is significant: Iran's government finds itself under enormous economic pressure. Meanwhile, oil exports, which are one of the country's key sources of revenue, have fallen sharply as a result of the US blockade.

石油部长帕克内贾德的辞职加剧了压力。官方称,他因个人原因辞职。

The resignation of Oil Minister Paknejad adds to the pressure. Officially, he stepped down for personal reasons.

能源战略家、地缘政治分析师兼能源安全专家乌穆德·肖克里对石油部领导层变动能否改变局势表示怀疑。肖克里说,伊朗依赖使其能够在制裁下出口石油的网络。不透明的结构已经根深蒂固,使政府更难控制关键收入来源。他说,规避制裁已成为伊朗政治体系内某些派系的有利可图之事。

Umud Shokri, an energy strategist, geopolitical analyst and energy security expert, casts doubt that a change at the helm of the Oil Ministry would alter the situation. Iran relies on networks that enable it to export oil despite sanctions, Shokri said. Opaque structures have become entrenched, making it harder for the government to control key revenue streams. Circumventing sanctions has become a lucrative business for certain factions within Iran's political system, he said.

肖克里说:“按照法律,这些收入应处于国家控制之下。但我们知道,多年来情况并非如此。”

"By law, these revenues should be under state control. But we know that has not been the case for years," Shokri said.

他补充说,在制裁期间,以国家安全和保护民众为借口,经济不透明程度进一步加深。

Economic opacity has deepened during the sanctions period, he added, under the pretext of national security and protecting the population.

与该国权力中心——尤其是伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)——关系密切的私人行为体,已开发出通过隐蔽渠道向武装部队出售石油的方法。无论是价格、所收取的佣金,还是所涉总金额,都不透明。

Private actors with close ties to the country's centers of power, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have developed methods to sell oil to the armed forces through hidden channels. Neither the prices nor the commissions charged or the total sums involved are transparent.

“政府对这些交易只有有限的影响力。尤其是革命卫队,会组织并控制此类交易,”肖克里说。

"The government has only limited influence over these transactions. The Revolutionary Guards, in particular, would organize and control such deals," Shokri said.

分析人士表示,政治和经济局势在未来几天和几周内可能会进一步恶化。

Analysts have signaled that political and economic situation could likely deteriorate further in the coming days and weeks.