唐纳德·特朗普的关税威胁帮助美国积累了超过100万吨的铜库存，且未动用公共资金，但随着交易商等待征税决定，铜流入速度正在放缓。
Donald Trump’s tariff threat helped to build copper stockpiles of more than 1 million metric tons in the United States without spending public money, but the flow is slowing as traders await a decision on the levies.
关税前景导致美国纽约商品交易所（Comex）认可仓库持有全球约70%的可见铜库存。这在其他地区造成了短缺，尽管全球存在供应过剩，仍推高了铜价。
The prospect of levies has left Comex-approved warehouses in the United States holding roughly 70% of the world's visible copper stocks. This has created shortages elsewhere, fuelling a price surge despite a global surplus.
潘姆尔·利伯勒姆分析师汤姆·普赖斯表示：“只有交易商在赚钱。他们本可以用更便宜的方式获取铜。他们本可以悄悄地从场外市场在全球范围内收集金属。”
"Only traders are making money. There are cheaper ways they could have got the copper. They could have quietly collected metal around the world from the off-exchange market," said Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price.
是否以及何时对美国进口商品征收关税，以及这种可能性是否会继续吸引铜流入，将成为伦敦金属交易所（LME）周——行业年度盛会——的一个关键议题，该会议将于10月18日在伦敦开幕。
Whether and when tariffs are imposed on US imports and whether the possibility will keep attracting copper will be a key talking point at LME Week, the industry's annual gathering in London, starting on October 18.
自特朗普于去年2月下令研究征收关税的潜在可能性以来，交易商一直在向美国运送铜，这推高了Comex铜价至历史新高，于9月22日达到每磅6.83美元，即每吨15,057美元。
Traders have been shipping copper to the United States since Trump ordered a study on the potential for tariffs in February last year, which pushed Comex prices to record highs, reaching $6.83 a lb, or $15,057 a ton, on September 22.
这创造了一个有利于Comex铜而非伦敦金属交易所铜的正向套利——即价差——在扣除运费和保险等成本后。
This created a positive arbitrage — a price gap — in favour of Comex over London Metal Exchange copper , once costs including freight and insurance were stripped out.
该套利空间于去年7月触及每吨3,000美元以上的历史峰值。此后，套利空间虽足以使向美国运铜获利，但并非始终如此。目前套利空间约为每吨310美元。
The arb hit a record peak above $3,000 a ton in July last year. Since then, it has been high enough to make shipping copper to the United States profitable, but not always. The arb is now about $310 a ton.
伍德麦肯兹分析师查尔斯·库珀表示：“美国在未动用纳税人资金的情况下，凭借政策和进口征税的近乎生存性威胁，建立了铜库存。”
"The US built a copper stockpile without spending taxpayer money, with policy and an almost existential threat of import levies," said Wood Mackenzie analyst Charles Cooper.
“但套利空间已崩塌，因此目前继续向美国运送金属的激励大幅减弱。”美国商务部原定于6月30日前提交国内铜市场报告，以便特朗普决定是否自2027年1月1日起对进口精炼铜征收15%关税，并于2028年提高至30%。但截至目前，任何相关决定都尚未公布。
"But the arbitrage has collapsed, so the incentive to keep moving metal to the US is much weaker right now." The US Commerce Department was due to report on the domestic copper market by June 30 so Trump could decide whether to impose a 15% tariff on refined copper imports from January 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. But no decision has been announced.
麦考瑞银行（Macquarie Bank）的分析师爱丽丝·福克斯（Alice Fox）认为最有可能的情况是：截止日期（1月）过去后仍无法达成任何协议，从而导致关税问题悬而未决。
One scenario Macquarie analyst Alice Fox sees as most likely is that the January deadline passes without a decision, leaving the question of tariffs unresolved.
福克斯表示：“这种情况可能会导致短期内铜价出现波动，但随后铜价会重新回到当前的水平——虽然价格还不足以刺激更多的铜矿产量，但足以促使铜资源留在美国境内。”
"This would likely see the arb come off in the short term but then return to current levels ... not quite high enough to encourage additional metal, but high enough to keep metal in the US," Fox said.
麦考瑞银行估计，目前美国境内的铜库存（包括交易所内和交易所外的库存）总量约为160万吨。自去年2月底以来，纽约商品交易所（Comex）的铜库存增长了近750%，达到了71.4万吨；储存在新奥尔良和巴尔的摩的伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库中的铜库存也从8月中旬起增长了44%，达到了近13万吨。纽约商品交易所、上海期货交易所和伦敦金属交易所的铜库存总和超过了100万吨。
Macquarie estimates that copper stocks in the United States on and off exchange now total about 1.6 million tons. Since the end of February last year, Comex copper stocks have climbed nearly 750% to more than 714,000 tons. Copper stored in LME warehouses in New Orleans and Baltimore have jumped 44% since mid-August to nearly 130,000 tons. Comex, Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME copper stocks overall total more than 1 million tons.
美国的铜库存远超其实际需求；据潘穆尔·利伯勒姆（Panmure Liberum）的预测，今年美国的铜库存量将达到160万吨。根据数据提供商Trade Data Monitor的数据，美国去年进口的铜量超过了162万吨，比2024年增长了80%。美国地质调查局（US Geological Survey）估计，美国去年的铜产量为100万吨，因此美国存在铜库存过剩的情况。分析师们预计今年的情况也会类似。
The US now has vastly more copper than it needs, which Panmure Liberum's Price expects to amount to 1.6 million tons this year. Numbers from information provider Trade Data Monitor show that the US imported more than 1.62 million tons of copper last year, up 80% from 2024. US Geological Survey pegged US production at 1 million tons last year, which leaves the US with a surplus. Analysts expect a similar picture this year.
只有当美国以外的地区出现严重的铜供应短缺时，伦敦金属交易所和上海期货交易所的铜价才有可能大幅高于纽约商品交易所的铜价。福克斯指出：“当交易者看到美国境内存在铜库存过剩而其他地区却面临严重短缺时，美国及伦敦金属交易所的铜价自然会相应上涨。”
For excess metal to be exported, prices on the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange would need to be significantly above those on Comex. This will happen only when shortages outside the United States become critical. "When traders see surpluses in the US and severe shortages, copper prices in the US and on the LME will be priced accordingly," said Price.