
乌干达中央银行在紧急会议上将基准利率上调至15年来的最高幅度,旨在遏制乌干达先令的跌势。此前,该货币汇率已跌至历史新低。
Uganda’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by the most in 15 years at an emergency meeting to defend the shilling, after it fell to a record low.
央行行长迈克尔·阿廷吉-埃戈在新闻发布会上表示,货币政策委员会将利率从9.75%上调至12%。此前该利率已连续八次会议维持在9.75%的水平。此次加息后,乌干达先令汇率有所回升,成为彭博社统计当日全球表现最佳的货币。
The monetary policy committee raised the rate to 12% from 9.75%, Governor Michael Atingi-Ego told reporters at a briefing. The rate had been held at 9.75% for eight consecutive meetings. The currency rallied, making it the world’s best performer on the day among those tracked by Bloomberg.
阿廷吉-埃戈指出:“此次加息旨在抑制通胀压力、减轻能源价格上涨及汇率贬值带来的后续影响,并促使通胀预期回归中期目标水平。”他还提到:“全球经济环境已发生显著变化,伊朗战争引发的通胀外溢效应使得采取紧缩的货币政策成为必要。”周二,乌干达先令汇率跌至彭博社自1993年开始统计以来的最低水平,随后有所反弹。周三加息后,先令涨势延续,截至坎帕拉当地时间下午2点06分,其对美元汇率上涨1.95%,达到1美元兑4,061.75先令。
“This is intended to contain inflationary pressures, limit the second-round effects from higher energy prices and exchange depreciation and anchor inflationary expectations around the medium-term target,”Atingi-Ego said. “The global economic environment has changed significantly,” he said, citing inflation spillovers from the Iran war “necessitating a tight monetary policy stance.”The East African nation’s currency on Tuesday fell to its weakest level since Bloomberg began tracking it in 1993 before paring losses. The shilling extended gains after Wednesday’s rate hike, strengthening 1.95% to 4,061.75 per dollar by 2:06 p.m. in Kampala.

在被问及汇率政策时,阿廷吉-埃戈强调:“乌干达央行并不设定具体的汇率目标,乌干达的汇率仍由市场决定。”近期随着美元走强及美国国债收益率上升,投资者纷纷撤离风险较高的资产。乌干达货币的大幅贬值也与其外汇储备规模较小、国际收支状况不佳密切相关。据国际货币基金组织统计,乌干达的外汇储备约为60亿美元,仅能支付2.7个月的进口费用,而加纳和赞比亚的这一数值则约为4.5个月。
In answer to a question, the governor said that “the Bank of Uganda does not target an exchange rate. The exchange rate in Uganda remains market determined.”Investors have been retreating from riskier assets as the dollar strengthens and US bond yields rise. Uganda’s outsized selloff partly reflects its relatively thin foreign-exchange reserves and balance of payments. The country has about $6 billion in reserves, enough to cover 2.7 months of imports, according to the International Monetary Fund, compared with about 4.5 months for Ghana and Zambia.
总部位于坎帕拉的资产管理公司Alpha Capital Partners的执行董事斯蒂芬·卡博约指出,乌干达央行可选择的政策手段十分有限,通过抛售美元来支撑汇率的可能性“几乎为零”。
The Bank of Uganda faced limited policy choices and the chances of selling dollars to support the currency were “near zero,” according to Stephen Kaboyo, managing director of Kampala-based asset manager Alpha Capital Partners.
长期执政者约韦里·穆塞韦尼也关闭了美元销售的可能性,并表示他“完全反对”动用外汇储备来支撑先令。
Longtime ruler Yoweri Museveni also shut the door on the possibility of dollar sales and said he is “totally against” dipping into foreign-exchange reserves to prop up the shilling.
乌干达央行“因此只剩下一个主要选择,即积极提高政策利率,”卡博约说。此举预计将提升当地债券市场收益率并吸引外汇流入,有助于“增加货币需求并直接抑制贬值压力”,他补充道。
The Bank of Uganda was “therefore left with one main option of raising the policy rate aggressively,” said Kaboyo. The move is expected to boost local bond market returns and attract foreign exchange flows, helping to “increase currency demand and directly curb depreciation pressures,” he added.
乌干达9月份年度总体通胀率升至4.6%,而8月份为4.1%,这一升幅受能源价格上涨推动,能源价格上涨源于与伊朗和乌克兰战争相关的供应限制。
Annual headline inflation in Uganda accelerated to 4.6% in September from 4.1% a month earlier, driven by elevated energy prices stemming from supply constraints linked to the Iran and Ukraine wars.
该行长表示,本币疲软和油价高企正在推动国内燃油价格上涨,通胀上行风险仍然占主导。
The governor said that local currency weakness and elevated oil prices were fanning domestic fuel prices, and that the risks to inflation remain tilted upwards.
周三的紧急会议在MPC原定的8月13日和11月12日会议之间举行,线上参会人数超过100人,包括银行家和记者。
Wednesday’s emergency meeting came between the MPC’s scheduled Aug. 13 and Nov. 12 sittings and was attended virtually by more than a 100 people including bankers and journalists.
乌干达央行曾在2024年举行过一次特别MPC会议,当时其通过提高利率来支撑先令,原因是世界银行因该国通过立法将同性恋定为犯罪而暂停对东非国家的资助。
The Ugandan central bank previously held a special MPC meeting in 2024, when it sought to support the shilling by hiking rates after the World Bank suspended funding to the East African nation over legislation that criminalized homosexuality.