美国一些最大的科技公司对欧洲发出警告：限制对美国云服务提供商的依赖，可能会让欧洲付出1150亿欧元的代价。这是由游说团体CCIA欧洲委托进行的一项新研究得出的结论，该团体的成员包括亚马逊、谷歌和Meta等公司，它们有充分理由希望欧洲政府继续购买美国的云服务。该研究由欧洲国际政治经济中心（ECIPE）进行，声称欧盟委员会提出的《云和人工智能发展法案》（CADA）可能在未来十年内给欧洲带来1150亿欧元的成本，超过该委员会上限估算的180亿欧元的六倍多。
Some of America's biggest tech companies have a warning for Europe: curb your reliance on US cloud providers, and it could cost you €115 billion. That's the finding of a new study commissioned by CCIA Europe, a lobbying group whose members include Amazon, Google, and Meta, companies that have plenty of reasons to want European governments to keep buying American cloud services. The research, conducted by the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), claims the European Commission's proposed Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) could saddle Europe with €115 billion in costs over the next decade, more than six times the Commission's upper estimate of €18 billion.
报告认为，偏向欧洲云服务提供商的限制将导致政府和企业面临迁移工作负载和重写软件的巨额费用。报告将直接公共部门成本估算为333亿欧元，并指出银行、医疗、能源和交通等行业的私营企业可能还需承担另外800亿欧元的费用。然而，这800亿欧元的数字附带一个相当大的前提条件。它假设欧盟委员会将主权要求扩展到公共采购之外，覆盖关键私营部门行业中25%的云工作负载。
The report argues that restrictions favoring European cloud providers would leave governments and businesses facing hefty bills to migrate workloads and rewrite software. It puts direct public-sector costs at €33.3 billion, with a further €80 billion potentially falling on private companies in sectors including banking, healthcare, energy, and transport. However, a rather large asterisk is attached to that €80 billion figure. It assumes the Commission extends sovereignty requirements beyond public procurement to cover 25 percent of cloud workloads in essential private-sector industries.
换句话说，这是一种建模情景，而非布鲁塞尔已经向欧洲企业提出的法案。该研究自身也带有一些背景。CCIA代表了几家在美国主导欧洲云市场的科技巨头，包括亚马逊和谷歌。这两家公司多年来一直向欧洲客户销售云服务，而最近则在开发主权云产品，以应对人们对外国所有权、数据访问和监管控制的担忧。例如，亚马逊一直在开发其AWS欧洲主权云，而谷歌则推出了一系列主权云解决方案。显然，当主权伴随着超大规模云服务商的标识时，它就成为了一个有吸引力的选择。
In other words, it's a modeled scenario, not a bill Brussels has already handed European businesses. The study also comes with some baggage of its own. CCIA represents several US technology giants that dominate the European cloud market, including Amazon and Google. Both have spent years selling European customers cloud services while more recently developing sovereign cloud offerings designed to address concerns about foreign ownership, data access, and regulatory control. Amazon, for example, has been developing its AWS European Sovereign Cloud, while Google markets a range of sovereign cloud solutions. Apparently, sovereignty is an attractive proposition when it comes with a hyperscaler logo attached.
Meta 作为 CCIA 的另一名成员，在欧洲人工智能基础设施方面也有自身利益，尽管它不是像 AWS 或谷歌云那样规模的商业云服务提供商。该报告特别针对所提议立法的第 31 条，称其可能允许委员会将主权要求扩展到基本私营部门服务。CCIA 认为，迫使企业远离现有云基础设施可能会引发昂贵的软件重新开发项目，代码重写和重新架构占其估计成本的 69%。
Meta, another CCIA member, has its own interests in European AI infrastructure, although it is not a commercial cloud provider on the scale of AWS or Google Cloud. The report specifically targets Article 31 of the proposed legislation, which it says could allow the Commission to extend sovereignty requirements into essential private-sector services. CCIA argues that forcing businesses to move away from existing cloud infrastructure could trigger expensive software redevelopment projects, with code rewriting and re-architecting accounting for 69 percent of its estimated costs.
卢森堡显然将受到最大冲击，研究显示其成本为每位员工十年 1,711 欧元。丹麦（905 欧元）、奥地利（900 欧元）和芬兰（864 欧元）也面临高昂费用，爱尔兰（856 欧元）亦是如此，该国是多家美国科技巨头欧洲总部所在地。CCIA 呼吁欧盟政府修改所提议的立法，将主权限制仅限于敏感工作负载，并放弃基于公司来源或人员国籍的要求，转而采用其所谓的基于风险的技术防护措施。
Luxembourg would apparently take the biggest hit, with the study putting the cost at €1,711 per worker over ten years. Denmark (€905), Austria (€900), and Finland (€864) also face hefty bills, as does Ireland (€856), which hosts the European headquarters of several US tech giants. CCIA is urging EU governments to overhaul the proposed legislation, limit sovereignty restrictions to sensitive workloads, and abandon requirements based on corporate origin or personnel nationality in favor of what it calls risk-based technical safeguards.
“成员国在决定 CADA 对云和人工智能提供商的严格主权要求时，不能依赖委员会不完整的估算，” CCIA 欧洲政策经理米切尔·拉特利奇说。“纳税人和企业将买单，但官方评估却遗漏了 CADA 真实影响的 70%。” 对于 AWS 和谷歌而言，向欧洲客户提供更大的数据控制权也有助于留住可能否则会转向欧洲竞争对手的业务。
"Member States cannot rely on the Commission's incomplete estimates when deciding CADA's strict sovereignty requirements for cloud and AI providers," said Mitchell Rutledge, CCIA Europe's policy manager. "Taxpayers and businesses will foot the bill, yet the official assessment missed 70 percent of CADA's true impact." For AWS and Google, offering European customers greater control over their data also helps retain business that might otherwise migrate to European competitors.
这是一种相当便利的安排：一方面向客户售卖主权，另一方面代表自身利益的行业协会却警告政府不要施加过多的主权要求。两家公司均未回应《The》的提问。欧洲的主权雄心是否会像 CCIA 预测的那样昂贵尚不清楚。
It's a rather convenient arrangement: sell customers sovereignty on one hand, while an industry association representing your interests warns governments against imposing too much of it on the other. Neither company responded to The's questions. Whether Europe's sovereignty ambitions will prove as expensive as CCIA predicts is unclear.
更容易确定的是，警告布鲁塞尔称减少对美国技术的依赖将带来高昂成本的公司，如果欧洲决定继续购买美国产品，它们将有大量获利空间。®
What's easier to establish is that the companies warning Brussels about the cost of reducing its dependence on US technology have plenty to gain if Europe decides to keep buying American. ®