自1972年以来，尚未向共和党总统候选人输送选举人票的一个州正在逆全国性政治风潮而行，在经历多年进步派失误管理后，正考虑进行改变。是的，明尼苏达州可能有些后悔。
A state that hasn’t delivered its electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate since 1972 is bucking the prevailing national political winds and contemplating a change after years of progressive mismanagement. Yes, Minnesota may have some regrets.
人们对即将到来的蓝色浪潮寄予厚望，认为它必将让民主党夺回众议院控制权，甚至可能让查克·舒默成为参议院的新任多数党领袖，并且极有可能在特朗普总统任期最后两年让他失去实质性影响力。
Much has been made of the impending Blue Wave that’s sure to deliver Democrats control of the House, could make Chuck Schumer the Senate’s new majority leader and will in all likelihood render Donald Trump impotent in the final two years of his presidency.
民主党人不仅在佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和密歇根州等摇摆州盘算胜局，还在爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、得克萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等共和党铁杆州做大梦想。
Democrats are not only counting their chickens in battleground states like Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan, but dreaming big in red strongholds like Iowa, Kansas, Texas and South Carolina.
但也许他们应该先看看自己家门口：共和党正在明尼苏达州——这片万湖之地——发起进攻。
But perhaps they should be looking in their own backyard: Republicans playing offense in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
“我们看到的是明尼苏达州内部发生的事情与全国形势之间的一种拉锯，”北星州知名保守派智库美国实验中心的创始人兼总统约翰·欣德克说。
“What we’re seeing is a kind of tug of war between what’s happening in Minnesota and what’s happening nationally,” said John Hinderaker, the founder of Power Line and president of the Center of the American Experiment, a prominent conservative think tank in the North Star State.
他所在组织最近进行的一项调查显示，58%的受访者认为明尼苏达州正走错路；只有37%的人说它走在正确的道路上。
One recent survey conducted by his organization found that 58% of respondents believe Minnesota is on the wrong track; just 37% say it’s on the right one.
“明尼苏达州民众对本州事务的发展方向根本不满意。原因有几点，但显然排名第一的是欺诈，”欣德克对《邮报》说。
“Minnesotans are fundamentally unhappy with how things have been going in our state. There are several reasons for that, but clearly No. 1 is fraud,” Hinderaker told The Post.
民主党及其在媒体中的长期盟友一直在淡化那起最终迫使蒂姆·沃尔兹州长放弃竞选第三任期的广泛欺诈丑闻，但纳税受害者依然愤怒。
Democrats and their forever allies in the media have downplayed the sweeping fraud scandal that eventually compelled Gov. Tim Walz not to run for a third term, but the taxpaying victims remain irate.
“明尼苏达州没有人认为这是小事……我的意思是，这涉及数十亿美元，而且是公然的，”欣德克观察到。他不仅指出了虚假慈善机构“喂养我们的未来”，还指出了州内医疗补助欺诈的大规模调查。
“Nobody in Minnesota thinks it’s a minor thing . . . I mean, it’s billions of dollars and it’s brazen,” observed Hinderaker, who pointed not only to the the fake charity Feeding Our Future, but the massive investigation into Medicaid fraud in the state.
参议员艾米·克洛布查尔，这位民主党人正竞选接任沃尔兹成为州长，她清楚地知道圣保罗现任政府的漏洞有多大 — — 并且她正尽可能地在它和她的竞选之间拉开距离。
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the Democrat running to succeed Walz as governor, knows just how big a vulnerability the current administration in St. Paul is — and she’s trying to put as much distance between it and her campaign as she possibly can.
“他们在这些补助金上乱花钱。沃尔兹自己说他本应更早发现。嗯，是啊。当某个本应立即触发红色警报的项目预算项飙升时，”克洛布查尔最近对《华尔街日报》说。
“They were justg off on these grants. Walz himself said he should have caught it earlier. Well, yeah. When the line item is skyrocketing up for one program that should be an immediate red alert,” Klobuchar told The Wall Street Journal recently.
“大事出错了。这让我很生气，也让其他人生气。”你看到了吗，这就是把人推到公交车下面？那就是蒂姆·沃尔兹的遗产。
“Major things went wrong. That pissed me off, and everyone else off.”See that, under the bus? There lies Tim Walz’s legacy.
常识可能认为克洛布查尔是对抗共和党人丽莎·德穆斯的热门人选，但欣德克不这么认为，即使克洛布查尔据称已经与极左划清界限。
Conventional wisdom might suggest Klobuchar is the heavy favorite against Republican Lisa Demuth, but Hinderaker isn’t so sure, even with Klobuchar’s supposed rejection of the far left.
克洛布查尔在2024年对阵脾气暴躁的罗伊斯·怀特时仅获得了56%的选票，或者说，正如欣德克所说，“基本上没有对手”。
Klobuchar garnered just 56% of the vote in 2024 when she was running against the cranky Royce White, or “essentially unopposed,” as Hinderaker put it.
“我认为，说她是个极受欢迎的政治家，这种想法最多也只是被夸大了，”他争辩道。共和党人在其他选举中的处境甚至更好。
“The idea that she’s this massively popular politician is, I think, overstated at best,” he argued. Republicans are even better positioned in other races.
在该州的美国参议院选举中，前体育记者米歇尔·塔福亚正在给沃尔兹那个离谱的副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根制造麻烦。
In the state’s race for US Senate, ex-sports journalist Michele Tafoya is giving Walz’s loony lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, a run for her money.
上个月发布的一系列民调显示，塔福亚要么与弗拉纳根持平，要么只落后一分。
A trio of polls released last month found that Tafoya is either tied or just one point behind Flanagan.
虽然明尼苏达州《星 tribune》最近的一项调查显示弗拉纳根领先四个百分点，但9%的受访者称自己尚未决定。
And although a Minnesota Star Tribune survey recently found that Flanagan boasts a four-point lead, 9% of respondents called themselves undecided.
欣德克认为，塔福亚以及共和党的司法部长提名人罗恩·舒茨 — — 正在挑战现任基思·埃利森 — — 都会获胜。
Hinderaker believes that both Tafoya and Ron Schutz, the GOP’s attorney-general nominee who’s taking on incumbent Keith Ellison, will prevail.
“我一直认为米歇尔会赢得这次选举，”他说，他将“极左翼”弗拉纳根与更为温和的塔福亚进行对比，后者在竞选途中也一直是个“表现出色”的人。埃利森也与欺诈丑闻纠缠得太深了，这对他自己也不利。
“I’ve thought for a long time that Michele’s going to win it,” he said, contrasting the “far left-winger” Flanagan with the much more moderate Tafoya, who has also been a “strong performer” on the campaign trail. Ellison is also far too intertwined with the fraud scandal for his own good.
“我们公布了一段时长54分钟的录音，内容是基思·埃利森与‘Feeding Our Future’诈骗案的涉案人员会面，并承诺会协助他们应对相关调查。结果仅仅10天后，其中一些人就向他的竞选活动捐款，”欣德拉克说道。“埃利森要倒台了。”
“We released a 54-minute audiotape of Keith Ellison meeting with Feeding Our Future fraudsters and promising to help them help them fend off inquiries about fraud — and 10 days later, some of them donated to his campaign,” noted Hinderaker. “Ellison’s going down.”
欺诈行为并非民主党在近20年里掌控州政坛期间犯下的唯一错误。经济停滞不前，教育质量不断下滑，社会治安也每况愈下。
Fraud isn’t the only black mark on Democrats’ nearly two-decade-long domination of state politics, either. The economy is stagnant, the schools are declining and the streets are less safe.
鉴于乔治·弗洛伊德事件后双子城地区暴力事件频发，最后一点尤为值得警惕。“郊区地区出现了大量索马里裔黑帮暴力事件，”欣德拉克指出。
That last bit is especially salient given the outbreaks of violence the Twin Cities have become famous for in the years since the George Floyd riots. “There has been this outbreak of Somali gang violence in the suburbs,” said Hinderaker.
10月2日，18岁的亚当·阿卜迪哈基姆·亚当据称在伊登普雷里高中举办的返校节橄榄球赛上开枪，击中了两名青少年。他在缴纳保释金后便已获释。
On Oct. 2, 18-year-old Adam Abdihakeem Adam allegedly opened fire and shot two teenagers at Eden Prairie High School’s homecoming football game. He’s already been released after posting bond.
“这可是个大问题……而且出现的时机对民主党而言实在不妙，”欣德拉克说道。
“This is a huge deal . . . and it came along at a very inopportune time for the Democrats,” said Hinderaker.
2024年时，左派人士认为沃尔兹就是对抗特朗普在中部地区影响力的理想人选——这位面带笑容、喜欢夸大其词自我吹嘘的“傻大个”似乎能担此重任。
In 2024, the left thought it had found the answer to Trump’s domination of Middle America in Walz, the smiley “knucklehead” with a penchant for hyperbolic self-aggrandizement.
然而仅仅两年后，他在明尼苏达州的种种失策却闹得沸沸扬扬，反倒有可能在选举之夜为共和党带来意想不到的转机。
Just two years later, his failures in Minnesota are such an embarrassing spectacle that he may instead deliver the GOP an unlikely silver lining on election night.