（10月14日）：美国银行集团债券投资组合的账面损失额已突破1000亿美元大关，这一数据再次引发了市场对2023年区域性银行业危机核心问题的关注。
(Oct 14): Paper losses on Bank of America Corp’s bond portfolio rose past US$100 billion (RM408.2 billion), bringing the spotlight back on a pain point that was at the heart of the 2023 regional-banking crisis.
目前，7年期和10年期美国国债收益率均高于5%，导致这些债券的市值持续下跌。根据财报数据，第三季度该行持有的各类债务证券的未实现损失总额超过1090亿美元，较6月底增长了28%。
Yields on seven-year and 10-year Treasuries are now above 5%, pushing down the market value of those bonds. That drove its unrealised losses on its total debt securities to more than US$109 billion in the third quarter, up 28% from the end of June, according to filings.
“在我们都渐渐淡忘美国银行陷入困境这一事实时，摩根大通、花旗集团和高盛集团却安然无恙，”BankRegData创始人比尔·莫尔兰在本月发布的一份通讯中写道。
JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc “are sitting pretty while we all kind of forget that Bank of America is a mess”, Bill Moreland, founder of BankRegData, wrote in a newsletter this month.
不过，目前已公布财报的美国各大银行也未能幸免。市场波动对这些银行证券投资组合的影响会通过所谓的“其他综合收益”这一指标反映在盈利数据中。数据显示，第三季度摩根大通和富国银行的该项损失额均翻了一番以上。
Still, the US banks that have reported so far haven’t been immune. The impact of market swings on these securities’ portfolios filters through earnings via the firm’s so-called accumulated other comprehensive income. The AOCI losses more than doubled in the third quarter at JPMorgan and Wells Fargo & Co.
“我们早就预料到利率波动在所难免，但看到其他综合收益在单季度内几乎翻倍，仍不免感到震惊，”Truist Securities分析师布莱恩·福兰等人在周二发给客户的报告中写道。福兰指出，由于其他综合收益拖累了银行的资本水平，投资者开始担忧各大银行是否会放缓股票回购的步伐。
“We all knew rate marks were coming, still there is some sticker shock seeing AOCI nearly double in the quarter,” Truist Securities analysts including Brian Foran wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. As AOCI dragged down banks’ capital levels, it made investors wonder if banks will slow down share buybacks, according to Foran.
福兰还提到，截至8月份，分析师们曾预计大型银行到2027年底将累计回购价值2070亿美元的股票。
As of August, analysts predicted that large banks would repurchase US$207 billion of shares by the end of 2027, Foran noted.
周二，摩根大通宣布，第三季度其股票回购规模较去年同期减少了近90%。该行首席执行官杰米·戴蒙则淡化了季节性市场波动对缩减回购计划的影响。
On Tuesday, JPMorgan said it cut repurchases by almost 90% in the third quarter from a year earlier. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon downplayed the impact of seasonal market swings on its decision to reduce share buybacks.
“积极的消息是回购减少的主要原因 — — 这与AOCI无关，也与对环境的猜测无关，甚至与巴塞尔III无关 — — 我们现在认为，不同于我们过去告诉你们的，我们可以在一段时间内以非常好的回报重新部署这笔资本，”迪蒙周二在电话会议上表示。
“So the positive news is the main reason the buyback is down — and it’s got nothing to do with AOCI or guessing about the environment or even Basel III — we believe now, which is different than we told you in the past, that we can redeploy that capital at very good returns over time,” Dimon said on a conference call Tuesday.
今年早些时候，随着利率下降，这些未实现损失有所缓解。但最近利率的反转使这一问题再次成为焦点。尽管该投资组合对拥有约2万亿美元平均存款余额的美国银行并不构成生存威胁，但该投资组合的波动一直是银行的头痛问题。
Those unrealised losses eased earlier this year as rates fell. But the recent reversal in rates has brought the issue back to the fore. While the portfolio isn’t an existential threat for Bank of America, which has average deposit balances of about US$2 trillion, the swings in the portfolio have been a headache for the bank.
“很难完全避免，但如果你确实处于亏损状态，那么我认为你可能会受到更多负面关注，”Performance Trust Capital Partners的董事总经理Nathan Stovall在谈到投资者对银行股的预期时如是说。投资者会想知道，“你是否从这次经历中吸取了教训？”自美联储在2022年初开始最新一轮加息周期以来，这一问题一直困扰着美国银行。在此期间，该公司表现为美国六大银行中最差，股东回报约为21%，而高盛、花旗和摩根大通的股票则翻了一倍多。
“It’s hard to avoid it, but if you are really underwater, then I think you might get more negative attention,” said Nathan Stovall, a managing director at Performance Trust Capital Partners, speaking broadly about investors’ expectations on bank stocks. Investors will want to know, "Did you learn from that experience?”The issue has lingered over Bank of America since the Federal Reserve began its latest rate-hiking cycle in early 2022. The company has been the worst performer among the half-dozen biggest US banks in that period, with shares returning about 21% while the stocks of Goldman, Citigroup and JPMorgan more than doubled.
美国银行当前的证券投资组合仍然是同业中规模最大的，但收益率最低。该公司的高管们表示，随着低收益债券临近到期并逐步到期，银行可以将这些资金重新投资于收益率更高的证券。
Bank of America’s current securities portfolio is still the biggest among peers and yields the least. The firm’s executives have said that as the low-yielding bonds approach maturity and roll off, the bank can reinvest those into securities with higher yields.
这些投资组合曾是2023年导致硅谷银行和第一共和银行等机构陷入困境的核心因素。但这一次的不同之处在于，银行并未面临相同的流动性紧张情况，因此行业专家认为这一问题将是可控的。
Those portfolios were at the centre of the turmoil that brought down the likes of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023. What’s different this time is that banks aren’t facing the same liquidity crunch, making industry experts believe it will be manageable.
银行倒闭也促使全行业银行加强对利率波动的防范。许多银行亏本出售了贬值的债券，并将所得款项重新投资于收益更高的证券，以提升这些投资组合的收益。目前，越来越多的银行正在探索类似的举措。
The bank failures have also prompted banks across the industry to shore up their defences against swings in interest rates. Many have sold underwater bonds at a loss and reinvested the proceeds in higher-yielding securities to boost what they can earn on those portfolios. More banks are now exploring similar moves.
摩根大通在第三季度计入了6.58亿美元的投资证券损失，以替换收益较低的证券。同样在7月，加州邦克银行表示，它出售了价值23亿美元的低收益证券，并将部分所得款项重新投入到收益更高的资产中。
JPMorgan booked US$658 million of investment securities losses in the third quarter to replace lower-yielding securities. Also in July, Banc of California said it sold off US$2.3 billion of low-yielding securities and redeployed some of those proceeds into higher-yielding assets.
“我会说这绝对是一个令人担忧的问题，再说一遍，”派珀桑德勒公司首席资产负债表策略师斯科特·希尔登布兰德说。“我一直在与众多银行就重组事宜进行更深入的讨论。”
“I would say it is absolutely a concern, again,” said Scott Hildenbrand, chief balance-sheet strategist at Piper Sandler Cos. “I’ve been exploring in a lot more conversations with banks around restructurings.”