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花旗在通胀意外后转为鹰派,预计美联储将在12月加息Citi turns hawkish on Fed after inflation surprise, expects December rate hike

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花旗银行标志出现在2025年12月1日拍摄的这张插图中。路透社/达多·鲁维奇/插图/资料照片Citi Bank logo appears in this illustration taken December 1, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

花旗周三表示,在美国9月份消费者通胀数据显著高于预期之后,它预计美联储将在12月加息25个基点。

Citigroup said on Wednesday it expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December after US consumer inflation data for September came in significantly above expectations.

此前,花旗一直是唯一预测今年不会再有美联储加息的机构,尽管金融市场普遍预期12月将加息。

The brokerage had been the lone holdout, forecasting no further Fed rate moves this year, even as financial markets largely anticipated a December hike.

花旗表示,它预计美联储在广泛预期的12月加息后将维持政策利率不变,市场定价显示12月加息的概率约为94%。花旗不认为降息将在2027年6月之前开始。

Citi said it expects the Fed to hold policy rates steady after a widely expected December rate increase, with markets pricing in a roughly 94% probability of a hike in the month. Citi does not expect rate cuts to begin until June 2027.

数据显示,由于汽油价格飙升,9月份消费者通胀加速,且价格压力已超出能源领域,引发人们对潜在通胀可能保持粘性的担忧。

Data showed September consumer inflation accelerated on surging gasoline costs and price pressures had expanded beyond energy, raising concerns that underlying inflation could remain sticky.

根据CME Group的FedWatch工具,与美联储政策利率挂钩的利率期货显示,在美联储10月27日至28日的会议上加息的概率为47.1%,而在通胀数据公布前这一概率约为22%。

Rate futures tied to the Fed's policy rate implied a 47.1% chance of a rate hike at the central bank's October 27 to 28 meeting, up from roughly 22% before the inflation data was released, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.