目前总统的净支持率数据暂缺：有NaN%的民众表示支持，NaN%表示反对，另有NaN%表示不确定。最新数据更新于2026年10月14日。净支持率数值以百分点为单位，可与2017年的特朗普时期及2021年的拜登时期数据作对比。
The president's net approval rating isNaN, NaN% approve, NaN% disapprove, NaN% not sure Last updated on October 14th 2026 Net approval rating, % points Compared with Trump 2017 Biden 2021 Donald Trump recently agreed to lift export restrictions on Russian diesel in a bid, he said, to reduce fuel costs for American consumers—and, no doubt, to shore up support ahead of next month’s midterm elections.
近日，唐纳德·特朗普同意解除对俄罗斯柴油的出口限制。他称此举旨在降低美国消费者的燃油成本；毫无疑问，这也是为下个月的中期选举争取更多支持率的手段。不过这项举措或许收效甚微，甚至为时已晚——既难以缓解选民对高通胀的担忧，也无力提升总统的受欢迎程度。据《经济学人》援引YouGov的民调数据，距离投票日不到三周，特朗普的支持率已降至-27%，创下新低，这对其所属政党而言绝非好兆头。
我们的预测显示，共和党很可能在11月失去众议院控制权，甚至很有可能失去参议院的控制权。
Yet the deal may do too little, too late to allay voters’ concerns about high inflation—or boost the president’s popularity. Less than three weeks from the voting, Mr Trump’s approval rating is at -27, a new low, according to The Economist’s tracker of YouGov polling. That bodes ill for his party. Our forecast suggests Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in November, and are more likely than not to lose the Senate too.
基于YouGov的数据，《经济学人》对特朗普在各州的支持率进行了预测。不出所料，在倾向于投票给民主党的州，特朗普的支持率最低；而在倾向于投票给共和党的州，其支持率则最高。特朗普的忠实选民群体中，绝大多数仍认可他的总统表现。但预测数据也反映出：即便在2024年曾投票给特朗普的州，民众对他的不满情绪也相当普遍。这些数据对于即将在中期选举中面临激烈竞争的共和党人而言，无疑是个令人焦虑的信号。
Using YouGov’s data, The Economist has projected Mr Trump’s approval rating state by state. As you might expect, approval of Mr Trump is lowest in states that tend to vote for Democrats and highest in those that tend to vote for Republicans. Mr Trump’s voters still overwhelmingly approve of his performance as president. But the projection also shows how dissatisfaction with Mr Trump is widespread even in states that voted for him in 2024. The numbers will make anxious reading for Republicans facing competitive races in next month’s midterm elections.
按人口群体划分的特朗普净支持率数值：与以往的共和党政治家类似，白人男性群体最有可能认可特朗普的工作表现；而年轻选民及少数族裔群体则持最强烈的反对态度。受教育程度最高的人群——即大学毕业生及研究生群体——最不可能支持特朗普。通常被视为共和党坚定票仓的退休年龄选民，对总统的态度也出人意料地冷淡。当前美国面临的最重要问题是什么？
Trump’s net approval rating by demographic, % points As with other Republican politicians before him, white and male voters are among the most likely to approve of Mr Trump’s job performance, while younger voters and members of ethnic minorities are among the most strongly disapproving. People who have the most education—college graduates and postgrads—are least likely to support Mr Trump. Voters of pension age, normally a solidly Republican bloc, are also surprisingly lukewarm on the president. What is the most important issue facing America?
- 人名和地名一律使用汉字进行转写；品牌名称和产品名称可保持原样（即使用拉丁字母）。
% responding by party Some political issues disproportionately concern political partisans.
翻译内容：某些政治议题主要受到特定政治派别的关注。对于特朗普所在的共和党选民来说，移民问题、税收政策以及政府支出是核心议题；而民主党选民则更关注医疗保健和气候变化问题。上图显示了美国成年人及各政党成员最关心的议题。
Immigration is a key issue for Mr Trump’s Republican base, as are taxes and government spending. Democrats are more worried about health care and climate change. The chart above shows the most important issues among American adults and members of each party.
2017–2026年间最重要的议题卡尔·马克思曾说过：“人类自己创造历史，但他们并不是按照自己的意愿来创造历史的。”这一点对特朗普而言同样适用。在特朗普的第一个任期内，公众舆论的主要焦点逐渐转向了医疗保健问题，尤其是在新冠疫情爆发之后。2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，经济形势的恶化使得通货膨胀成为拜登执政期间的核心议题。上图基于 YouGov 的每周调查数据，展示了自 2017 年以来美国成年人最关心的议题。
了解美国政治动态的方法：您可以通过我们的每日新闻简报《The US in Brief》快速获取最重要的政治新闻分析，以及每周发布的《Checks and Balance》，该报告会探讨美国民主制度的现状及选民关心的议题。
Most important issues, 2017-2026 Karl Marx said that men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please. That goes for Mr Trump as much as for anyone else. Public opinion in Mr Trump’s first term came to be dominated by concern about health care, especially after the outbreak of covid-19. The economic effects of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 made inflation a defining issue of Mr Biden’s presidency. The chart above shows which issues have been most important to American adults since 2017, based on weekly survey data from YouGov. ■ Stay on top of American politics withThe US in brief, our daily newsletter with fast analysis of the most important political news, andChecks and Balance, a weekly note that examines the state of American democracy and the issues that matter to voters.
调查方法： YouGov 每周邀请约 1,500 名自愿参与的受访者完成在线问卷调查。这些受访者被选为具有代表性的美国成年人样本，调查数据会根据性别、年龄、种族、教育水平及投票行为进行加权处理，以确保数据的客观性。为追踪 YouGov 调查结果的变化，《经济学人》杂志每周会汇总调查数据并绘制趋势曲线。
Methodology Each week, YouGov invites around 1,500 members of its opt-in panel to complete an online questionnaire. The respondents are selected to be representative of American adult citizens and the data is weighted to represent the country according to gender, age, race, education and voting behaviour. To track the results of YouGov’s polling over time, The Economist aggregates survey data each week and fits a line of best fit.
州级批准率是通过一种称为“回归和后分层”的过程来估算的。LASSO 回归用于拟合一个统计模型，以根据受访者的人口统计特征和投票行为，以及诸如各州的投票历史、经济数据和其他民意调查等外部数据来预测 YouGov 受访者对特朗普先生表现的批准程度。然后，该回归模型会根据公开可得的普查、选举和调查数据进行加权，以使其代表每个州的选民。各州的估计值会被汇总，以代表该州的人口和政治特征。
State-level approval ratings are estimated using a process called “regression and poststratification”. LASSO regression is used to fit a statistical model to predict YouGov respondents’ approval of Mr Trump’s performance, based on their demographic characteristics and voting behaviour, along with external data such as states’ voting histories, economic data and other polling. This regression model is then weighted to be representative of the electorate in each state, using publicly available census, electoral and survey data. Estimates are aggregated in each state to represent that state’s demographic and political profile.
来源：YouGov/《经济学人》；BLS；合作选举研究；美国人口普查；当前人口调查；FiftyPlusOne；皮尤研究中心；《经济学人》
Sources: YouGov/The Economist; BLS; Cooperative Election Study; US Census; Current Population Survey; FiftyPlusOne; Pew Research Centre; The Economist