西班牙执政的社会工人党在周三发布的一项民意调查中，对保守派反对党的领先优势进一步扩大，这与其他倾向于支持右翼的调查形成对比，而即将举行的提前选举正被住房危机所主导。
Spain’s ruling Socialists widened their lead over the conservative opposition in a state poll released Wednesday, contrasting with other surveys that favor the right ahead of a snap election dominated by the housing crisis.
西班牙社会学研究中心（CIS）将首相佩德罗·桑切斯所在的社会工人党的支持率定为34%，比保守派人民党（PP）高出近12个百分点，而上个月的领先优势仅为5.5个百分点。
The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) put Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s party at 34%, nearly 12 percentage points ahead of the Popular Party (PP), compared with a 5.5-point lead last month.
社会工人党的支持率上升了3个百分点，而人民党的支持率降至22.2%。极右翼政党Vox以17.1%的支持率排名第三，随后是社会工人党的联盟伙伴Sumar，支持率为6.1%，以及左翼政党Podemos，支持率为3.1%。
The Socialists gained three points while the PP fell to 22.2%. Far-right Vox remained third with 17.1%, followed by the Socialists’ coalition partner Sumar at 6.1% and left-wing Podemos at 3.1%.
三个左翼政党的总支持率约为43%，比人民党和Vox的总和高出大约4个百分点。
Together, the three left-wing parties would receive around 43% of the vote, roughly four points more than the PP and Vox combined.
此次调查正值公众对马里卡门·阿巴斯卡尔被驱逐事件的愤怒之中，这位87岁的老妇人被迫搬离她租住了七十年的住所，两周后去世。
The survey comes amid public anger over the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal, an 87-year-old woman forced out of the home she had rented for seven decades who died two weeks later.
她的案件引发了马德里及其他城市的抗议和露营行动，加剧了人们对住房成本和驱逐问题的关注，要求政府采取行动。
Her case sparked protests and encampments in Madrid and other cities, intensifying demands for action over housing costs and evictions.
桑切斯在议会否决了两项政府住房法令后宣布将于11月29日举行选举。
Sanchez announced the Nov. 29 election after parliament rejected two government housing decrees.
西班牙最大的两个工会CCOO和UGT也呼吁在11月11日举行全国大罢工，以要求提高工资和提供可负担的住房，这一行动将在官方选举活动开始前两天进行。
Spain’s largest unions, CCOO and UGT, have also called a general strike for Nov. 11 to demand better wages and affordable housing, two days before the official election campaign begins.
周三的调查凸显了人们对住房问题的担忧程度，创纪录的55.7%的受访者将住房列为西班牙的主要问题之一，远高于移民和经济问题。
Wednesday’s survey underscored the scale of concern, with a record 55.7% naming housing among Spain’s main problems, far ahead of immigration and the economy.
异常的民调然而，CIS的调查结果与其他民调形成鲜明对比，后者显示保守派和极右翼可能赢得足够的席位以共同组建政府。
Anomalous poll However, the CIS findings contrast sharply with other polls suggesting the conservatives and far right could win enough seats to govern together.
一项由《埃尔帕伊斯》和Cadena SER委托的40db调查在选举宣布后进行，结果显示人民党和Vox的合计支持率比社会工人党、Sumar和Podemos的总和高出约15个百分点。
A 40db survey for El Pais and Cadena SER conducted after the election announcement gave the PP and Vox a combined lead of about 15 points over the Socialists, Sumar, and Podemos.
公共广播公司RTVE的民调平均值同样预测，人民党（PP）和Vox将获得舒适的议会多数席位，两党合计在350席的众议院中获得202席。
Public broadcaster RTVE’s polling average likewise projected a comfortable parliamentary majority for the PP and Vox, with a combined 202 seats in the 350-seat lower house.
这种分歧并非新鲜事。《埃尔派斯》对自2018年以来的44次选举进行分析发现，CIS的调查在其中43次中高估了左翼的支持度。
The divergence is not new. An El Pais analysis of 44 elections since 2018 found that CIS surveys overestimated support for the left in 43 of them.
其在2023年大选前的最后一次民调接近社会党的实际得票率，但错误地预测他们将领先于人民党。最新的CIS调查基于10月初进行的5025次访谈。
Its final poll before the 2023 general election came close to the Socialists’ actual vote share, but incorrectly predicted they would finish ahead of the PP. The latest CIS survey was based on 5,025 interviews done in early October.