导致美国房价下跌所需的许多要素已然具备，唯独缺少最关键的一环：急于出售的房主。
Many of the ingredients needed to cause a fall in U.S. home prices are in place, except for the one that really matters: owners who are desperate to sell.
抵押贷款利率已升至 7.4%，为 2023 年 11 月以来首次触及该水平。这本应是房屋价值的利空消息，尤其是考虑到目前市场上的供应量比三年前多得多。
Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.4% for the first time since November 2023. This should be bad news for home values, especially as there is much more supply on the market than there was three years ago.
房地产市场中卖家与买家的数量差距显著扩大。根据活跃挂牌数量，9 月有 150 万美国人试图出售房屋；据 Redfin 估算，仅有 92.9 万人在购房。近 60 万的卖家盈余规模，创下 Redfin 自 2013 年有记录以来的新高。
A wide gap has opened up between the number of sellers and buyers in the housing market. In September, 1.5 million Americans were trying to sell their homes, based on the number of active listings. Only 929,000 people were buying, according to Redfin estimates. The surplus of sellers, nearly 600,000, is the largest in Redfin’s records going back to 2013.
再看 2023 年 11 月的市场动态。当时有 115 万卖家和 105 万买家，卖家仅略微盈余 10 万，市场仅对买家略微有利。
Now look at the dynamics in the housing market in November 2023. Back then, there were 1.15 million sellers and 1.05 million buyers. A slight surplus of 100,000 sellers meant the market only marginally favored buyers.
库存上升是因为旧有超低利率抵押贷款产生的“锁定效应”正在消退。Intercontinental Exchange 数据显示，目前逾三分之一的存量住房贷款利率高于 5%，而 2023 年这一比例为五分之一。
Inventory is climbing because the lock-in effect caused by old, ultracheap mortgages is fading. Today, more than a third of outstanding home loans have a rate above 5%, compared with a fifth in 2023, data from Intercontinental Exchange shows.
一些低利率抵押贷款已还清。其他房主因换工作或离婚不得不放弃优惠贷款。结果是，如今更多人能够出售房屋，而无需牺牲廉价抵押贷款。
Some low-rate mortgages paid off. Other owners had to give up their favorable loans to move for a new job or a divorce. The result is that more people are able to sell their homes today without having to sacrifice a cheap mortgage.
与此同时，借款人陷入困境。抵押贷款利率回升至三年前的高位，而房价自那时起已上涨。全美房地产商协会数据显示，9 月美国房价中位数为 41.75 万美元，较 2023 年 11 月上涨 8%。如今符合抵押贷款资格的人变少，市场买家数量较 2023 年底下降了 11%。[视频] 抵押贷款利率触及 7%：楼市将何去何从？
Meanwhile, borrowers are in difficulty. Mortgage rates are back at highs seen three years ago, and housing has become more expensive since then. The median U.S. home price was $417,500 in September, an increase of 8% since November 2023, data from the National Association of Realtors shows. Fewer people can qualify for a mortgage these days, so the number of buyers in the market has fallen by 11% compared with levels seen in late 2023. [video] Mortgage Rates Hit 7%: What’s Next for the Housing Market?
买家近期获得了议价优势。Redfin 数据显示，截至 9 月 20 日的四周内，五分之一的卖家下调了挂牌价。近半数卖家为了促成交易，正向买家提供让步，例如承担交易费用或提供维修资金。
Buyers have gained bargaining power lately. In the four weeks through Sept. 20, a fifth of sellers dropped their asking price, Redfin data shows. And nearly half of sellers are giving concessions to buyers to get deals done, such as offering to cover closing costs or giving money for repairs.
但房主不太可能大幅降价，以使住房重新变得负担得起。摩根士丹利美国住房策略师吉姆·伊根表示：“我非常想知道的一个指标是，这些卖家究竟有多大的出售意愿。” 目前，房主的行为并不像面临出售压力。这可能是因为就业市场稳定，且传统抵押贷款的逾期率很低。
But owners are unlikely to make the kind of price cuts that would really make housing affordable again. “A metric that I would love to have is how motivated those sellers are,” says Jim Egan, U.S. housing strategist at Morgan Stanley. For now, owners aren’t behaving like they are under pressure to sell. That could be because the job market is stable and delinquency rates on conventional mortgages are low.
不愿大幅降价的卖家正以创纪录的数量撤回房源。9 月份，6.1% 的卖家因未能获得可接受的报价而将房产撤回市场。芝加哥的撤回活动尤为活跃，上个月有 18% 的房源被撤回。如果得不到心仪的报价，卖家也可以选择将房屋出租。
People who don’t want to slash prices are already delisting their homes in record numbers. In September, 6.1% of sellers pulled their property off the market after failing to get an acceptable offer. Delisting activity was especially high in Chicago, where 18% of homes were pulled last month. Sellers can also rent out their homes if they don’t get a tempting offer.
市场上存在一些局部的困境区域，特别是在阳光地带，那里供应过剩，且疫情期间的涨价潮导致房价与当地收入严重脱节。Zillow 数据显示，得克萨斯州奥斯汀的房价较 2022 年高点下跌了 27%。
There are pockets of distress in the market, especially in the Sunbelt where there is too much supply and the pandemic rally left home values out of sync with local incomes. In Austin, Texas, home values are down 27% from their 2022 peaks, Zillow data shows.
自特朗普政府收紧规定，限制联邦住房管理局（FHA）抵押贷款陷入困境的借款人申请拖欠付款援助的频率以来，止赎率一直在上升。然而，不得已出售的比例仍然微乎其微。
Foreclosure rates have been climbing since the Trump administration tightened the rules about how often troubled Federal Housing Administration mortgage borrowers can apply for help with payment arrears. However, the share of distressed selling is still tiny.
长期来看的问题是，如果抵押贷款利率维持在当前水平，美国房价将会如何。自 1970 年代初以来，30 年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率为 7.7%。虽然按近期标准来看当前利率似乎很高，但它们只是回到了历史常态。
The longer-term question is what happens to U.S. home values if mortgage rates stay at their current levels. The rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has averaged 7.7% since the early 1970s. Although current rates seem high by recent standards, they are just back to historical norms.
一场导致失业的经济衰退将迫使更多卖家出售房屋。但美国人在住房方面拥有创纪录的净资产，因此如果经济出现问题，他们将拥有相当大的缓冲。房主的净资产价值相当于美国住房总价值的72%，而2007年第四季度——也就是上次重大房地产崩盘前——这一比例为55%。当时导致房价下跌的一个因素是，一些房主在其住房中的净资产如此之低，以至于他们愿意把钥匙交还给贷款人。
A recession that causes job losses would flush out more sellers. But Americans have record equity in their homes, so there is a big cushion if things go wrong with the economy. Owners’ equity is worth 72% of the total value of U.S. housing, compared with 55% in the fourth quarter of 2007, right before the last major housing crash. One factor that drove home prices down back then was that some homeowners had so little equity in their homes that they were willing to hand back the keys to their lenders.
而尽管锁定效应正在缓解，仍有近一半的未偿还抵押贷款利率低于4%。这一情况在过去的经济衰退中从未出现，且应有助于为房价提供支撑。
And while the lock-in effect is easing, nearly half of outstanding mortgages still have a rate below 4%. This hasn’t been a feature in past downturns and should help to keep a floor under home prices.
由于卖家不愿降价到能够大量吸引购房者重返市场的水平，买家所能期待的最好结果是，他们的收入增长速度快于房价上涨速度。这将是一个缓慢且令人沮丧的过程，才能重回可负担住房的状态。
With sellers unwilling to drop to prices that would bring home hunters off the sidelines in big numbers, the best that buyers can hope for is that their incomes grow faster than home values. That will be a slow and frustrating grind back to affordable housing.
请写信联系 Carol Ryan，邮箱为 carol.ryan@wsj.com。
Write to Carol Ryan at carol.ryan@wsj.com