在让中国接受限制其汽车出口后，欧盟已经开始关注其他行业的后续行动——为下一场贸易冲突做准备。
After getting China to accept limits to its car exports, the European Union is already eyeing follow-up action in other industries — setting up their next trade clash.
双方对该协议的看法出现了显著分歧，该协议限制了中国混合动力汽车的销售，这一分歧在协议达成仅数天后就已显现。这正在危及更广泛的避免贸易战的目标，因为欧盟领导人将于周四会面，讨论他们的下一步行动。
The sharp divergence in how the two parties view their agreement, which caps sales of Chinese hybrid vehicles, has emerged days after it was reached. It’s jeopardizing the wider goal of averting a trade war as EU leaders meet Thursday to debate their next move.
对北京而言，上周达成的协议是一次经过计算的一次性让步——也许是在原则上让步，但仅牺牲了其对欧盟年出口额5600多亿美元的一小部分。国有媒体警告称，如果欧盟在谈判中“耍新花招”，将作出回应。“这是一项特殊安排，不会成为其他行业的先例，”曾任商务部顾问的涂新泉表示。“中国明白汽车行业对欧洲尤为重要，”他补充说，中国与德国良好的贸易关系也是一个因素。
For Beijing, the accord reached last week was a calculated one-time concession — perhaps ceding ground on principle, but sacrificing only a tiny fraction of its more than $560 billion annual exports to the bloc. State media warned of a response “if the EU introduces new tricks while negotiating.”“This is a special arrangement and will not become a precedent for other sectors,” said Tu Xinquan, a former adviser to the Commerce Ministry. “China understands that the auto industry is of particular importance to Europe,” and its good trade relations with Germany were also a factor.
“如果对方继续得寸进尺，那么中国除了反击别无选择，”涂补充道，他目前是北京对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院院长。
“If the other side continues to push its luck, then China has no choice except counterattack,” added Tu, now dean of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.
欧盟已经明确表示，混合动力汽车只是其清单上的第一项。根据知情人士透露，德国将推动欧盟对中国在化工和机械工程等行业的进口实施类似限制，并可能将药品也纳入其中。
The EU has already made clear hybrid cars are just the first item on its list. Germany will press the bloc to impose similar limits on Chinese imports in industries including chemicals and mechanical engineering, and potentially pharmaceuticals, according to people familiar with the matter.
布鲁塞尔还指出，家具和电动滑板车等产品正面临中国进口激增带来的威胁，这可能冲击当地制造商。如果汽车协议是欧盟所能获得的全部成果，那么欧盟与中国的贸易逆差——上月已达到创纪录的348亿美元——将 barely 被削弱。
Brussels has also identified products such as furniture and scooters where surging Chinese imports threaten local manufacturers. If the car deal is all the bloc can get, the EU’s trade deficit with China, which reached a record $34.8 billion last month, will barely be dented.
欧盟与中国的贸易失衡“不仅限于汽车领域”，欧盟最高经济官员瓦尔迪斯·东布罗夫斯基斯周二在曼谷接受彭博新闻采访时表示。“我们还需要在其他不同领域继续推进这项工作。”即使汽车协议尚未完全敲定。
Imbalances in EU-China trade “are not limited to automotive,” Valdis Dombrovskis – the bloc’s top economic official – told Bloomberg News in Bangkok on Tuesday. “We need to continue this work also across different other sectors.”Even the auto deal has yet to be fully signed off.
欧盟表示，将从12月起限制每年从中国进口的混合动力汽车数量为35万辆，低于今年预期数量的一半。根据彭博经济学的估算，这将使中国对欧洲的整体销售额下降约1.5%，对全球出口的影响为0.2%。
The EU said it will cap imports of hybrid cars from China at 350,000 per year starting from December, less than half this year’s expected number. That would shave about 1.5% off China’s overall sales to Europe and 0.2% from its global exports, according to Bloomberg Economics.
中国尚未直接确认这一数字，但表示双方设想从2025年30.2万辆汽车的销量开始实施“向上安排”。
China hasn’t directly confirmed the figure, though it said the two sides envisage an “upward arrangement” from the 2025 sales of 302,000 cars.
在至少一个有争议的贸易议题上达成协议可能带来回报。面对国内经济放缓，中国的增长高度依赖出口。其与美国的贸易休战仅延长至1月，这使北京有动力避免在另一条战线上升级冲突，并将与欧洲的关系描绘为较少对抗。
An agreement on at least one contentious trade topic could bring a payoff. With a stalling domestic economy, China’s growth relies heavily on exports. Its trade truce with the US has only been extended until January, giving Beijing an incentive to avoid escalation on another front and to mark out ties with Europe as less adversarial.
“如果欧洲认为谈判是失败的，它可能会让谈判更接近美国的立场，”香港大学讲师马丁·塞贝纳说。“这是中国希望避免的情况。”在周四欧盟会议之前，强硬回应的势头一直在积累，届时领导人预计将讨论如何应对中国出口的激增。
“If Europe perceived the negotiations as a failure, it could move them more closely to the US position,” said Martin Sebena, a lecturer at the University of Hong Kong. “Which is something China would want to avoid.”Momentum for a forceful response had been building ahead of Thursday’s EU meeting, where leaders are expected to discuss how to tackle the surge in Chinese exports.
上周，德国和法国——欧盟最大的两个经济体——呼吁制定新工具，使欧盟能够完全将中国排除在该集团庞大的单一市场之外——所谓的“第二次打击”工具可能成为对中国切断其稀土供应的强有力威慑。
Last week, Germany and France, the bloc’s biggest economies, called for new tools that would empower the EU to exclude China completely from the group’s massive single market — that so-called “second strike” instrument could serve as a strong deterrent to China choking its supply of rare earths.
这些稀土磁铁已成为北京方面的重要谈判筹码。据知情人士透露，目前中国正与欧盟进行磋商，希望解除对一家中国企业的限制措施，作为交换，中国将恢复向阿斯麦控股公司供应链中的一家欧洲企业供应稀土。若得不到这些稀土，这家欧洲企业极有可能面临破产。
Those magnets have been powerful leverage for Beijing. It’s in talks with the EU to unwind curbs placed on a Chinese firm in exchange for China restoring flows of the metals to a European company in the ASML Holding NV supply chain, according to people familiar with the discussions. The firm was at risk of going bust without the rare earths.
法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济学家阿莉西亚·加西亚·埃雷罗指出，中国在汽车领域的让步旨在“防止欧盟委员会出台更为严厉的贸易限制措施”。
Beijing’s concessions on cars are aimed at “preventing the European Council from mandating a sharper toolkit,” said Alicia García Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis.
不过，这一策略能否奏效尚难预料。一些中国分析人士也担心，不仅欧洲的贸易谈判代表会将此视为可加以利用的先例。
There’s no guarantee the gambit will succeed. Some Chinese analysts also worry it won’t just be European trade negotiators who see a precedent they can exploit.
“其他国家的政府可能会认为，通过实施贸易限制也能迫使对方做出让步，”清华大学国际安全与战略研究中心研究员孙成浩说道，“中国应当高度重视这一政治动向。”虽然北京方面基本不认同西方关于中国存在“产能过剩”的指责，但这一说法在其他地区却日益受到关注。目前已有众多国家对中国商品大量涌入本国市场表示担忧，这种现象在汽车行业及其他领域同样存在。
“Other governments may conclude that threatening restrictions can extract concessions,” said Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy in Beijing. “China should take that political incentive seriously.”Western charges of “overcapacity” in the world’s manufacturing powerhouse have largely been dismissed in Beijing, but they’ve gained traction elsewhere. Plenty of countries have sounded the alarm over the scale of Chinese goods flooding their markets, both in the auto industry and beyond.
今年迄今为止，中国的出口表现良好，有望打破2025年创下的1.2万亿美元贸易顺差纪录；不过芯片及石油等大宗商品价格的上涨也在一定程度上推高了这一数字。
China’s exports so far this year put it on track to exceed the record $1.2 trillion surplus posted in 2025, although surging prices for chips and commodities like oil are inflating the figures.
不过，据欧亚集团的杰拉德·迪皮波分析，中国向欧洲做出让步不太可能引发全球范围内的连锁反应。“其他贸易伙伴会效仿吗？很少有国家具备欧盟那样的谈判影响力，”他说道，“我认为北京方面也不会对所有提出类似要求的贸易伙伴都给予同等待遇。”不过，一旦欧盟领导人提出超出汽车领域的其他让步要求，中欧之间的贸易紧张局势仍有可能进一步升级。
Still, there’s not much risk of a worldwide domino effect from China’s concession to Europe, according to Gerard DiPippo at the Eurasia Group. “Will other trading partners try the same? Few countries have the EU’s leverage,” he said. “I doubt Beijing will grant uniform treatment to all counterparties who complain.’ That still leaves the possibility of escalation with Europe, if or when the bloc’s leaders come back asking for concessions that go beyond cars.
前商务部顾问图表示，欧盟将很难复制这项汽车协议，因为世界贸易组织（WTO）的规则对实施“保障措施”设置了很高的门槛，这为中国拖延这一进程留下了充足的空间。
Tu, the former Commerce Ministry adviser, said the EU would find it hard to replicate the car deal, as WTO rules have a high bar for imposing “safeguard measures” — giving China plenty of room to delay the process.
他说道：“如果严格抠字眼地审视相关条款，欧盟确实存在不符合WTO规则的地方。”
“If one strictly nitpicks the provisions, there are certainly places where the EU is non-compliant with WTO rules,” he said.