2023年9月，沙特阿拉伯和以色列似乎比以往任何时候都更接近达成历史性的正常化协议。华盛顿一直在努力促成这两个长期对手的和解。随后发生了哈马斯的10月7日袭击，加沙战争使这一可能性被推得很远。三年后，以色列正卷入由哈马斯袭击引发的更广泛的地区战争，其周边局势出现了显著转变。沙特阿拉伯长期拒绝承认犹太国家，据报道正在探讨针对共同敌人的合作。
In September 2023, Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared closer than ever to a historic normalisation deal. Washington had worked to bring the two longtime adversaries together. Then came Hamas's October 7 attack, and the war in Gaza pushed that possibility far into the distance. Three years later, Israel is engaged in a wider regional war triggered by the Hamas attack, and the situation around it has taken a remarkable turn. Saudi Arabia, which has long refused to recognise the Jewish state, is reportedly exploring its help against a common enemy.
意想不到的催化剂是也门胡塞武装、美国总统唐纳德·特朗普、他不愿为利雅得作战的意愿，以及沙特阿拉伯与巴基斯坦和土耳其的防御协议的局限性。一个重要且明确的公开信号出现在10月11日，当时以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡谴责了对利雅得哈立德国际机场的致命胡塞武装袭击，该袭击造成13人死亡、数百人受伤。
The unlikely catalysts are Yemen's Houthis, US President Donald Trump, his reluctance to fight Riyadh's battles, and the limitations of Saudi Arabia's defence pact with Pakistan and Turkey.A major and clear public signal came on October 11, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the deadly Houthi attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, in which 13 people were killed and hundreds were injured.
次日，以色列报纸《哈雷茨》报道称，内塔尼亚胡正通过美国寻求沙特的批准，以便以色列加入对胡塞武装的行动。幕后，以色列和沙特官员据称通过美国中央司令部讨论了情报合作，而以色列消息人士表示，内塔尼亚胡认为这是一个恢复正常化的机会。胡塞武装的导弹和无人机袭击暴露了沙特阿拉伯防御的脆弱性，尽管该王国一直在寻求其协议盟国——巴基斯坦和土耳其的援助。
A day later, Israeli newspaper Haretz reported that Netanyahu was seeking Saudi approval, through the US, for Israel to join the campaign against Houthis. Behind the scenes, Israeli and Saudi officials have reportedly discussed intelligence cooperation through US Central Command, while Israeli sources said Netanyahu sees an opportunity to revive normalisation. The Houthis' missile and drone attacks have exposed vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia's defences, even as the kingdom sought assistance from its pact-bound allies — Pakistan and Turkey.
与此同时，特朗普向利雅得提供了一项与美国的有利可图的30年民用核能协议，但附带一个可能改变中东政治格局的条件。据路透社报道，沙特阿拉伯必须首先承认以色列并加入《亚伯拉罕协议》。此外，特朗普不愿承诺美军对抗胡塞武装的立场使利雅得的计算变得复杂。
Meanwhile, Trump has offered Riyadh a lucrative 30-year civilian nuclear deal with the US, but with a condition that could change politics in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia must first recognise Israel and join the Abraham Accords, according to a Reuters report. Also, Trump's reluctance to commit American forces against the Houthis has complicated Riyadh's calculations.
其盟友巴基斯坦和土耳其的防务承诺尚未提供沙特阿拉伯所需的保护。这使得以色列的情报和导弹防御专业知识对沙特阿拉伯更具吸引力。以色列分析师克谢尼亚·斯维特洛娃在10月12日接受《以色列时报》每日简报播客采访时表示，沙特-以色列安全合作是一个“公开的秘密”，但她表示，如果没有通往巴勒斯坦国建立的可信路径，正式正常化关系可能不太可能实现。
Its allies, Pakistan and Turkey's defence commitments, are yet to provide the protection to Saudi Arabia's needs. That has made Israeli intelligence and missile-defence expertise more attractive for Saudi Arabia. Speaking on The Times of Israel's Daily Briefing podcast on October 12, Israeli analyst Ksenia Svetlova described Saudi-Israeli security cooperation as an "open secret", but said formal normalisation could be unlikely without a credible path towards Palestinian statehood."
利雅得发现，土耳其和巴基斯坦在抵御重大威胁方面对沙特阿拉伯的防御仅提供了最小且大多象征性的帮助。耶路撒冷战略与安全研究所（JISS）副所长、退役上校埃兰·勒曼在一篇文章中写道。沙特阿拉伯与以色列关系日益密切过去一个月的发展表明，胡塞武装的威胁正在为两个没有正式外交关系的国家之间的合作创造空间。
Riyadh discovered that Turkey and Pakistan offered only minimal and largely symbolic help in defending Saudi Arabia against a significant threat," Colonel Eran Lerman (Retired), the deputy director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) wrote in a piece.HOW SAUDI ARABIA AND ISRAEL ARE MOVING CLOSERThe developments of the past month reveal that the Houthi threat is creating space for cooperation between two countries that have no formal diplomatic relations.
9月15日，以色列报纸《耶路撒冷邮报》引用一位地区外交官的消息报道称，沙特阿拉伯和以色列曾举行由美国中央司令部调解的讨论，内容涉及以色列在对抗胡塞武装方面的情报援助。三天后，总部位于华盛顿的媒体Al-Monitor报道称，内塔尼亚胡正试图利用利雅得的军事困难。该媒体引用两位以色列高级政治消息人士的说法，报道称以色列已间接传达了其提供情报以及可能与沙特阿拉伯进行军事磋商的意愿。
On September 15, Israeli newspaper, The Jerusalem Post, citing a regional diplomat, reported that Saudi Arabia and Israel had held US Central Command-mediated discussions about Israeli intelligence assistance against the Houthis. Three days later, Washington-based outlet Al-Monitor reported that Netanyahu was trying to capitalise on Riyadh's military difficulties. Citing two senior Israeli political sources, it reported Israel had indirectly conveyed its willingness to provide intelligence and potentially hold military consultations with Saudi Arabia.
该报道暗示，内塔尼亚胡希望将安全合作转化为外交突破。这是以色列的雄心，但尚未得到利雅得的接受。随后是内塔尼亚胡罕见的直接公开干预。10月11日，内塔尼亚胡谴责了胡塞武装对利雅得机场的袭击，并表达了对受害者的团结。
The report suggested Netanyahu hoped to turn security cooperation into a diplomatic breakthrough. That's an Israeli ambition, and not an agreement accepted by Riyadh. Then came Netanyahu's unusually direct public intervention. On October 11, Netanyahu condemned the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport, expressing solidarity with the victims.
这是一个重要的举动，因为沙特阿拉伯和以色列在历史上一直避免公开互相拥抱，尽管他们对伊朗及其地区盟友有共同的担忧。据路透社报道，胡塞武装对利雅得机场的袭击于10月10日造成13人死亡、300多人受伤。第二天的另一次袭击导致1人死亡、近十人受伤。接受《以色列时报》采访的以色列分析师、前议员克塞尼亚·斯韦特洛娃表示，沙特-以色列安全合作一直在“许多层面上持续多年”。
It was a significant gesture because Saudi Arabia and Israel have historically avoided publicly embracing each other, despite their shared concerns about Iran and its regional allies. According to Reuters, Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport killed 13 people and injured more than 300 on October 10. Another attack the following day killed a person and wounded nearly a dozen others. Israeli analyst and former parliamentarian Ksenia Svetlova, speaking to The Times of Israel, said Saudi-Israeli security cooperation had been ongoing "on many levels for many years."
她称之为“在这里中东的一种公开秘密”。胡塞武装如何改变了利雅得的计算胡塞武装已成为沙特阿拉伯的严重军事问题。这个伊朗支持的组织反复发射导弹和无人机袭击沙特机场，并威胁石油设施，同时其在也门的进展危及连接红海与亚丁湾的关键通道——巴布曼德布海峡。沙特阿拉伯通过空袭和支持也门政府军作出回应。
Calling it "a kind of open secret here in the Middle East."HOW HOUTHIS HAVE CHANGED RIYADH'S CALCULATIONSThe Houthis have become a serious military problem for Saudi Arabia. The Iran-backed group has launched repeated missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and threatened oil facilities, while its advances in Yemen have endangered the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial passage connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Saudi Arabia has responded with airstrikes and support for Yemeni government forces.
但胡塞武装持续袭击王国的能力引发了人们对利雅得防御其基础设施能力的质疑，尽管该国拥有花哨的军队和多年的巨额军费开支。“我们[以色列人]已经开始向他们[沙特人]传递关于胡塞武装的情报，”以色列评论员约尼·本·梅纳赫姆在第十四频道上声称。“但独自承担风险并派遣我们的飞行员，那是不会发生的，”他补充道。
But the Houthis' ability to keep striking the kingdom has raised questions about Riyadh's ability to defend its infrastructure despite having a flashy military and years of heavy spending." We [Israelis] have already started passing them [Saudis] intelligence on the Houthis," Israeli commentator Yoni Ben Menachem claimed on Channel 14. "But taking risks alone and sending our pilots, that will not happen," he added.
他的言论表明合作可能已经超越了最初的讨论阶段。对以色列而言，这是双赢。胡塞武装威胁其红海利益，并在过去曾袭击以色列。帮助沙特阿拉伯应对胡塞武装可能削弱一个共同的敌人，同时改善与尚未加入《亚伯拉罕协议》的最有影响力的阿拉伯国家的关系。
His input suggests cooperation might have moved beyond initial discussions. For Israel, it's a win-win. The Houthis threaten its Red Sea interests and have attacked Israel in the past. Helping Saudi Arabia counter them could weaken a common adversary while improving relations with the most influential Arab state yet to join the Abraham Accords.
这也将有助于以色列削弱另一个伊朗代理人——胡塞武装，继其对哈马斯和真主党的行动之后。特朗普如何为以色列-沙特阿拉伯关系创造机遇沙特阿拉伯最初寻求华盛顿的帮助，以对抗胡塞武装。自2015年以来，胡塞武装多次用导弹和无人机袭击该王国，包括对其石油设施、机场和其他关键基础设施的袭击。然而，尽管特朗普政府提供了情报支持，但其在军事上干预也门民兵的意愿不足，引发了对美国安全保障的质疑，并促使利雅得探索其他选择。
That would also help Israel weaken yet another Iranian proxy, the Houthis, after its campaigns against Hamas and Hezbollah.HOW TRUMP CREATED OPENING FOR ISRAEL-SAUDI ARABIA RELATIONSSaudi Arabia initially looked to Washington for help in countering the Houthis, who have repeatedly targeted the kingdom with missiles and drones since 2015, including attacks on its oil facilities, airports and other critical infrastructure. However, the Trump administration's reluctance to intervene militarily against the Yemeni militia, despite offering intelligence support, has raised questions about American security guarantees and prompted Riyadh to explore other options.
据路透社报道，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼在9月曾寻求特朗普对抗胡塞武装的帮助。当时华盛顿拒绝直接军事行动，但提供了情报共享和定位协助。美国可能并未完全抛弃沙特阿拉伯，但特朗普一直不愿将美军投入也门的另一场战役。美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥重申了沙特阿拉伯的自卫权以及华盛顿的安全承诺。但他未宣布对胡塞武装发动美国空袭，这是沙特部分人士的诉求。
According to Reuters, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought Trump's assistance against the Houthis in September. Washington declined direct military action at that stage but offered intelligence sharing and targeting assistance. The US might not have abandoned Saudi Arabia, but he has been reluctant to commit American forces to another campaign in Yemen. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed Saudi Arabia's right to defend itself and Washington's security commitments. But he did not announce American airstrikes against the Houthis, a demand made by sections of Saudis.
这促使利雅得寻求其他合作伙伴。以色列凭借其情报能力和对抗伊朗支持武装的经验，成为沙特阿拉伯潜在的援助来源。巴基斯坦-土耳其麦加防御 pact 是否失败？沙特阿拉伯-土耳其-巴基斯坦防御安排，俗称麦加 pact，原本旨在让利雅得获得更大的安全支持，而无需完全依赖华盛顿。该协议规定，对任何一方的攻击视为对所有方的攻击。
This encouraged Riyadh to seek additional partners. Israel, with its intelligence capabilities and experience countering Iranian-backed groups, becomes a potential source of assistance for Saudi Arabia.HAS THE PAKISTAN-TURKEY MECCA DEFENCE PACT FAILED? The Saudi Arabia-Turkey-Pakistan defence arrangement, popularly called the Mecca Pact, was supposed to give Riyadh greater security support without depending entirely on Washington. The agreement treats an attack on one partner as an attack on all.
但其首次重大考验暴露了现实。土耳其已排除派遣部队或参与进攻行动的可能性，尽管它提供了设备和技术援助。
But its first major test exposed the reality. Turkey has ruled out deploying troops or joining offensive operations, although it has provided equipment and technical assistance.
巴基斯坦已提供军事支持，其战机也对也门胡塞武装阵地实施了空袭。但存在限制。耶路撒冷战略与安全研究所（JISS）副所长、退役上校埃兰·勒曼在一篇分析文章中指出，沙特阿拉伯在也门的困难暴露了其与巴基斯坦和土耳其的防御伙伴关系的局限性。他写道：“利雅得发现，土耳其和巴基斯坦在抵御对沙特阿拉伯的重大威胁时仅提供了微乎其微且大多是象征性的帮助。”
Pakistan has offered military support, and its fighter aircraft have conducted airstrikes against Houthi positions in Yemen. But, there have been limitations. Colonel Eran Lerman (Retired), deputy director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), argued in an analysis piece that Saudi Arabia's difficulties in Yemen had exposed the limitations of its defence partnerships with Pakistan and Turkey. "Riyadh discovered that Turkey and Pakistan offered only minimal and largely symbolic help in defending Saudi Arabia against a significant threat," he wrote."
他补充道：“利雅得也可能意识到，以色列可以在敏感领域帮助沙特阿拉伯，就像它在对伊朗行动开始以来一直帮助阿联酋那样。”沙特以色列关系正常化仍是遥远前景尽管沙特阿拉伯与以色列关系出现缓和，但在实现外交突破之前仍存在重大障碍。“和平总统”特朗普必须为此努力。沙特阿拉伯否认参与了据称于9月27日涉及内塔尼亚胡和阿联酋领导人的会议。
Riyadh may have also realised that Israel can help the Saudis in sensitive areas, as it has helped the UAE since the campaign against Iran began," he added.IS NORMALISATION IS STILL A DISTANT PROSPECTDespite the thaw in the Saudi Arabia-Israel relationship, substantial obstacles before a diplomatic breakthrough is achieved. "Peace President" Trump must be working towards it. Saudi Arabia denied participating in a reported September 27 meeting involving Netanyahu and the UAE leadership.
数日后，利雅得据称拒绝了以色列军用飞机在其境内降落的许可，以疏散一架在王国紧急降落的FlyDubai航班上的乘客。这两起事件表明沙特阿拉伯不愿公开拥抱以色列。这一点已被新闻报道注意到。巴勒斯坦问题是主要障碍。利雅得一再坚持，正常化需要通往巴勒斯坦国建立的可信道路，而内塔尼亚胡一直对此持抵制态度。
Days later, Riyadh reportedly refused permission for Israeli military aircraft to land and evacuate passengers from a FlyDubai flight that had made an emergency landing in the kingdom. Both episodes show Saudi Arabia's reluctance to publicly embrace Israel. This is something news reports have noted. The Palestinian question is a major stumbling block. Riyadh has repeatedly insisted that normalisation requires a credible path towards Palestinian statehood, something Netanyahu has resisted.
以色列分析师克塞尼亚·斯韦特洛娃警告称，战术合作“并非会加速正常化进程的东西”。耶路撒冷战略与安全研究所（JISS）的退役上校埃兰·勒曼警告不要对据称的以色列与沙特阿拉伯官员会议过度解读。
Israeli analyst Ksenia Svetlova cautioned that tactical cooperation was "not something that will accelerate the process of normalisation." Colonel Lerman (Retired) of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) cautioned against reading too much into the reported meeting between officials of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
“单次会议还为时过早，无法称之为转折点。”他在10月7日的分析中写道。如今，哈马斯三年前破坏了沙特-以色列的正常化进程，胡塞武装又为两国合作提供了另一个理由。华盛顿不愿进行军事干预，以及巴基斯坦和土耳其防御承诺的局限性也在其中发挥了作用。但利雅得有其自身的考量。但这并不妨碍沙特阿拉伯在未承认犹太国家的情况下，发现以色列情报很有用。- 完-
"It is too soon to call a single meeting a turning point," he wrote in his October 7 analysis. Now, three years after Hamas disrupted Saudi-Israeli normalisation, the Houthis have given both countries another reason to cooperate. Washington's reluctance to intervene militarily and the limitations of Pakistan and Turkey's defence commitments have also played a part in the cooperation. But, Riyadh has its own calculations. But that doesn't prevent Saudi Arabia finding Israeli intelligence useful without recognising the Jewish state.- Ends