
自然是人类的生命支持系统,但它正以惊人的速度被耗尽,使我们的世界日益脆弱。从致命的热浪和肆虐的野火到灾难性的洪水和长期的干旱,环境变化的影响今年已无法忽视。随着厄尔尼诺现象预计将加剧,对人类、自然和经济的风险只会增加。
Nature is humanity’s life-support system, but it is being depleted at an alarming rate, leaving our world increasingly vulnerable. From deadly heatwaves and raging wildfires to catastrophic floods and prolonged droughts, the effects of environmental change have been impossible to ignore this year. With El Nino forecast to intensify, the risks to people, nature and economies are only increasing.
这些冲击正在广泛自然损失的背景下发生,世界自然基金会(WWF)的《2026年活着的星球报告》发现,1970年至2022年间,受监测的野生动物种群平均规模下降了73%。自然损失日益成为经济和国家韧性的问题——影响着粮食和水安全、健康、供应链和地缘政治稳定。形势严峻,但科学表明仍有希望的理由。
These shocks are unfolding against the backdrop of widespread nature loss, with WWF’s Living Planet Report 2026 finding that the average size of monitored wildlife populations declined by 73 percent between 1970 and 2022. Nature loss is increasingly a question of economic and national resilience– affecting food and water security, health, supply chains and geopolitical stability. The situation is serious, but science shows there are still grounds for hope.
推动自然衰退的经济体系可以被转变,而且变化的速度可能远超许多人的预期。证据表明,在适当条件下,积极的变化可以跨越临界点阈值并成为自我强化的过程,从而使一个更安全、更具韧性的未来不仅成为可能,而且成为必然。
The economic systems driving nature’s decline can be transformed, and change can accelerate much faster than many may expect. Evidence shows that under the right conditions, positive change can cross a tipping point threshold and become self-reinforcing, making a safer, more resilient future not just possible, but inevitable.
问题在于:我们如何加速所需的行动以触发这些临界点并加速转型?
The question is: How can we accelerate the actions needed to trigger those tipping points and accelerate the transition?
积极的临界点与转型性变革的机遇 在环境领域,我们常常将临界点视为对重要生态系统(如珊瑚礁或亚马逊雨林)构成的威胁,在这些地方,持续的损害会累积并日益难以逆转。这些危险是真实且紧迫的。然而,这些临界点动态也可能对我们有利。
Positive tipping points and the opportunity for transformational change In environmental terms, we often think about tipping points in terms of the threats they pose to vital ecosystems, such as coral reefs or the Amazon rainforest, where constant damage risks compounding and becoming increasingly impossible to reverse. These dangers are real and urgent. However, these tipping point dynamics can also work in our favour.
三种经济体系正在推动自然的大部分衰退:助长气候变化的能源体系;导致栖息地丧失和气候变化的全球食品体系;以及为这一切提供资金的金融体系。在这些体系中触发临界点将使它们迅速向好的方向转变,从而减少对气候和自然的危害。一旦超过该阈值,随着知识和技术的进步,变化可能会迅速发生,解决方案将变得更便宜、更易于获取,并且人们将从他人那里学习。令人鼓舞的是,进展已经在进行中——虽然尚未普及,也尚未达到所需的规模——但已足以证明变化是可能的。
Three economic systems are driving most of nature’s decline: the energy system that fuels climate change; the global food system that leads to habitat loss and climate change; and the finance system that bankrolls it all. Triggering tipping points in those systems would see them rapidly transform for the better and reduce harm to the climate and nature. Once that threshold is passed, change can happen quickly as knowledge and technology advance, with solutions becoming cheaper and more accessible and as people learn from others. Encouragingly, progress is already under way – not everywhere, and not yet at the scale required – but enough to demonstrate that change is possible.
世界并不缺乏2030年的目标。它缺乏的是实施的速度。随着《全球生物多样性框架》、联合国可持续发展目标和《巴黎协定》的到位,各国政府已经就一条路径达成一致。全面落实这些协议将为快速系统性变革创造条件。
The world does not lack goals for 2030. What it lacks is the pace of implementation. With the Global Biodiversity Framework, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement in place, governments have already agreed on a pathway. Focusing on implementing these agreements in full will create the conditions for rapid systemic change.
全球能源体系已经过了临界点,从化石燃料向可再生能源的转型正在加速。虽然尚未完成,但这一转型展示了快速系统性变革是可能的,为同样紧迫的食品和金融体系转型提供了宝贵经验。
The global energy system has already passed a tipping point, with the transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy now accelerating. While far from complete, this transition demonstrates how rapid systemic change is possible, offering valuable lessons for the equally urgent transformation of our food and financial systems.
二十年前,太阳能主要用于卫星和袖珍计算器。如今,它已成为大多数国家新增电力发电的最便宜选择。价格亲民的太阳能电池板正在为农村家庭供电,并提升食品和医疗供应链的韧性。可再生能源技术正以人们十年前难以想象的速度取代化石燃料。改革食品和金融体系的进展虽然较慢,但同样紧迫。
Twenty years ago, solar power was used mostly in satellites and pocket calculators. Now, it is the cheapest option for new electricity generation in most countries. Affordable solar panels are electrifying rural households and improving the resilience of food and medical supply chains. Renewable technologies are displacing fossil fuels at a pace few people predicted even a decade ago. Changing the food and finance systems is proving slower but is no less urgent.
要迈向粮食系统的临界点,我们需要在采用自然友好型粮食生产方式方面取得重大进展,同时看到消费者对于更健康、更可持续食品的需求发生更广泛的变化,从而巩固并推动这一转变。在应对大宗商品驱动型森林砍伐方面,一些进展已经取得,超过130个国家制定了国家层面的粮食系统转型战略计划,但这些承诺尚未转化为加速转型所需的政策和激励措施。
To progress towards a food systems tipping point, we need to hit major milestones in the uptake of nature-positive food production and see wider shifts in consumer demand for healthier, more sustainable foods to reinforce and reward this shift. Some progress is under way with efforts to tackle commodity-driven deforestation, and more than 130 countries have national strategic plans for food system transformation, but commitments have not yet translated into the policies and incentives needed to accelerate the transition.
推动金融系统发生转变,使流向保护和恢复自然活动的资金超过流向破坏自然活动的资金,是一项根本性挑战。要实现这一临界点,需要结合监管变革、补贴改革,以及该行业将气候和自然视为实质性金融风险方式的转变。如果目前流向有害活动的资金哪怕只有一部分被重新引导至环境修复领域,就可能改变整个转型过程的经济学逻辑。
Tipping the finance system so that more finance flows to activities that protect and restore nature than activities that harm it is a fundamental challenge. Reaching this tipping point will require a combination of regulatory change, subsidy reform, and a shift in how the sector values climate and nature as material financial risks. If even a portion of the money currently directed towards harmful activities is redirected to environmental recovery, it could shift the economics of the entire transformation.
在COP17生物多样性大会和COP31气候大会上齐聚一堂的各国政府,正面临一个至关重要的机遇:携手合作,加速采取必要行动以触发积极的临界点,并增强社会与全球经济的韧性。
Governments meeting at the COP17 biodiversity and COP31 climate conferences have before them a vital opportunity to work together to accelerate the actions needed to trigger positive tipping points and to build resilience into societies and the global economy.
从保护工作中的成功中汲取经验:在全球生物多样性下降的大背景下,也隐藏着许多鼓舞人心的物种恢复故事。由于政府、社区和组织的共同努力,绿海龟和老虎的数量正在逐步恢复。
Learning from conservation success Hidden within the broader picture of global biodiversity decline are inspiring stories of species recovery. Populations of green sea turtles and tigers are rebounding due to dedicated conservation work bringing together governments, communities and organisations.
要实现系统性变革,同样需要包括政府、企业、金融机构、当地社区和个人在内的所有人采取行动。我们已经明确目标所在,也清楚需要共同克服的障碍;当前的任务就是创造有利条件,让积极变革不断积累动力,并开始自我强化。
Creating systemic change will similarly take action from all of us, from governments to businesses, financial institutions, local communities, and individuals. We know where we need to get to and the hurdles we need to overcome together; the task now is to create the conditions in which positive change gathers momentum and starts reinforcing itself.
要增强我们自然支持系统的韧性和恢复力,我们需要有勇气从那些以短期利益为目标的、具有剥削性和浪费性的经济模式转向可持续、具有再生能力的经济模式,从而为所有人带来长期的好处。我们拥有实现这一目标所需的目标、解决方案以及实现路径。当然,在这个过程中可能会遇到挫折,但科学表明,大自然和气候系统仍然具有恢复能力,而且这种变化的发生速度可能比我们想象的要快。
Building strength and resilience into our natural support system will require the courage to shift from extractive, wasteful economies focused on short-term gain to systems that are sustainable and regenerative for the long-term benefit of all. We have the goals, the solutions and pathways to get there. Yes, there might be setbacks along the way, but science shows nature and the climate can still recover and that change can happen faster than we might think.