
伊拉克巴格达——眼下,巴格达主要的批发市场之一——贾米拉市场上,食品商哈姆扎·鲁达伊尼正焦虑地坐在自己的小办公室里,静候着未来几天会发生什么。
Baghdad, Iraq – Sitting anxiously in his small office in Jameela market, one of Baghdad’s main wholesale markets, food trader Hamza al-Rudayni is waiting to see what the coming days will bring.
伊拉克政府决定让本国货币第纳尔对美元汇率贬值,这一举措使得包括他在内的众多商贩面临突如其来的损失,同时也难以确定商品的合理售价。
A decision by the Iraqi government to devalue the country’s currency, the dinar, against the US dollar has left traders like him facing sudden losses and uncertainty over the prices they should charge for their goods.
“我不知道该怎么办,”汇率贬值导致鲁达伊尼手中持有的第纳尔兑换成美元的价值缩水,可购买进口商品的资金随之减少,他事后对半岛电视台说道。
“I don’t know what to do,” al-Rudayni told Al Jazeera after the devaluation reduced the dollar value of his dinar holdings, leaving him with less money to purchase imported goods.
“我只知道,几天前一觉醒来,我发现自己因这项政策损失了2500万伊拉克第纳尔(按新汇率计算约合1.65万美元);而那些规模更大的商家损失更是高达数十亿。”他补充道。
“All I know is I woke up a few days ago to discover that I had lost 25 million Iraqi dinars (roughly $16,500 at the new exchange rate) because of this decision, while larger merchants lost billions,” he said.
此前,鲁达伊尼曾在伊拉克的一家私人银行任职,后来该银行遭到美国财政部的制裁,他也因此失业。去年,他毅然进入批发贸易行业:先是变卖了自己的汽车,又动用积蓄与一家大型商家合作开展贸易,最近才独立创业。
Al-Rudayni entered the wholesale trade market last year after losing his previous job at a private Iraqi bank that he says was sanctioned by the United States Treasury. He sold his car and used his savings to start trading with a larger merchant before recently launching his own business.
由于汇率波动导致物价难以预测,鲁达伊尼称自己与众多同行都选择暂时停止买卖,直到局势稳定下来。
With exchange-rate fluctuations making prices unpredictable, al-Rudayni said he and many other traders have chosen to suspend buying and selling until the situation stabilises.
“如今市场几乎陷入停滞,”鲁达伊尼说道,“按照规定,商家不能用美元销售商品,只能以第纳尔定价,可他们采购商品时却必须用美元付款。”这正是困扰商家的核心问题:第纳尔贬值意味着他们需要支付更多本币才能买到以美元计价的进口商品,同时也难以确定现有库存商品的合理售价。
“Market activity has ground to a halt,” al-Rudayni said. “Traders buy goods in dollars but sell them in dinars, as regulations prohibit them from selling in dollars.”That is the root of the problem for traders: A weaker dinar means they have to pay more in local currency for goods imported in dollars, while making it harder to determine the right price they should charge customers for goods they already have in stock.
10月7日,为缓解由美以两国对伊朗发动战争以及霍尔木兹海峡石油出口受阻引发的金融危机,伊拉克政府出台了新的美元兑第纳尔官方汇率。
On October 7, the Iraqi government introduced a new official exchange rate against the US dollar, in an attempt to ease a financial crisis triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran and the disruption of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
战前,伊拉克通过霍尔木兹海峡每天出口约350万桶石油,占伊拉克政府收入的90%。
Before the war, Iraq exported around 3.5 million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 90 percent of Iraq’s government revenue.
伊拉克中央银行的这一决定将向公众现金销售美元的汇率定为每1美元兑1,520第纳尔。此前的汇率定为每1美元兑1,320第纳尔。
The Central Bank of Iraq decision set the rate at 1,520 dinars per US dollar for cash sales to the public. It was previously set at 1,320 dinars per dollar.
将伊拉克第纳尔对美元贬值近15%,使得政府在兑换每一美元石油收入时能够获得更多本国货币,从而帮助其支付公共开支,包括政府雇员工资。
Devaluing the Iraqi dinar by almost 15 percent against the dollar allows the government to receive more local currency for every dollar of oil revenue it converts, helping it cover public spending, including government employee salaries.
伊拉克总理阿里·扎伊迪周四在与议会领导人会晤时表示:“这是我的决定,我对此负责。”
“It is my decision and I am responsible for it,” Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said during a meeting with parliamentary leaders on Thursday.
扎伊迪补充说:“我当时面临着三个充满挑战的选择来支付工资和其他强制性支出。第一个是削减35%的工资……第二个是每45天发一次工资……第三个是诉诸外债。”曾任银行家的扎伊迪还表示,他的政府在5月上台时,继承了超过208万亿伊拉克第纳尔(按新汇率计算为1,390亿美元)的公共债务。他说,政府每月大约需要10万亿第纳尔(67亿美元)来支付工资和其他基本开支。霍尔木兹海峡的危机给伊拉克政府造成了严重的财政紧缩。
“I was facing three challenging options to cover salaries and other mandatory expenditures,” al-Zaidi added. “The first is to cut salaries by 35 percent … the second is to pay the salaries every 45 days … while the third is to resort to foreign loans.”Al-Zaidi, a former banker, also said that his government had inherited public debt exceeding 208 trillion Iraqi dinars ($139bn at the new rate) when it took office in May. He said the government needed approximately 10 trillion dinars ($6.7bn) each month to cover salaries and other essential expenditure. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz had caused a severe financial squeeze for the Iraqi government.
尽管在伊拉克石油出口部分恢复后,情况在最近几周有所缓和,但石油出口尚未恢复到战前水平。
Although the situation has eased somewhat in recent weeks after Iraq’s oil exports partially recovered, they have yet to return to their pre-war levels.
伊拉克总理财政顾问穆德尔·穆罕默德·萨利赫8月表示,伊拉克中央银行的外汇储备已从1060亿美元降至约800亿美元。
Mudher Mohammed Salih, the Iraqi prime minister’s financial adviser, said in August that the Central Bank of Iraq’s foreign currency reserves had declined from $106bn to approximately $80bn.
为了弥补收入损失,伊拉克政府还转向从国内银行借款,以支付工资和其他费用。
To make up for the loss of revenue, the Iraqi government has also turned to borrowing from domestic banks to cover salaries and other expenses.
一名财政部官员告诉半岛电视台,确保按时发放工资依然是政府的首要任务,并形容该问题关乎国内经济稳定。
A Finance Ministry official told Al Jazeera that ensuring salaries were paid on time remained the government’s main priority, describing this issue as a matter of domestic economic stability.
这名要求匿名、因未获授权公开表态的官员表示:“在收入以及如何维持足够资金以确保我们能够支付工资方面,我们束手无策。”
“Our hands are tied regarding the revenue and how to maintain enough money to ensure that we can pay the salaries,” the official, who asked to remain anonymous because he was not authorised to speak publicly, said.
经济学家警告称,虽然调整汇率可以缓解一些眼前的财政压力,但无法解决伊拉克经济中更深层次的薄弱环节。
Economists have warned that while adjusting the exchange rate could ease some immediate fiscal pressures, it would not address the deeper weaknesses in Iraq’s economy.
巴士拉马基尔大学经济学教授纳比勒·马尔苏米表示:“经济学中没有什么是不容触碰的,包括汇率在内。它可以调整,但只能在穷尽所有其他选项之后。”他补充道:“无论如何,汇率不应用作掩盖国家经济和财政政策失败的遮羞布。”
“Nothing in economics is sacred, including the exchange rate,” said Nabil al-Marsoumi, professor of economics at Al Maaqal University in Basra. “It can be adjusted, but only after all other options have been exhausted.”“In any case, the exchange rate shouldn’t be used as a cover-up for failures in the state’s economic and fiscal policies,” he added.