
中国试图取代美国成为全球领先的超级大国,而其战略的关键在于确保关键海上通道。能够控制海上通道命运的国家将在市场上拥有话语权,能够主导全球贸易所依赖的体制类型,获得有限自然资源的使用权,并具备远离本土投射力量的显著能力。国务卿马尔科·卢比奥一直在策划并执行从巴拿马到格陵兰,如今延伸至冰岛的外交行动,以遏制中国、保护美国的通道和利益,并在长期内建立美国的优势。
China seeks to replace the United States as the leading global superpower and key to its strategy is securing critical sea lanes. The country that can control the fate of sea lanes will have leverage over markets and the kind of system on which global trade will rely, access to limited natural resources and a significant ability to project power far from its shores. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been planning and executing on a diplomatic sweep from Panama to Greenland, and now Iceland, to box out China, protect its access and interests and establish an American advantage over the long term.
大约40年前,美国总统罗纳德·里根与苏联领导人米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫在冰岛雷克雅未克会面,并拉开了缓和冷战紧张局势的序幕。卢比奥返回了里根拒绝向苏联让出其基于太空的导弹防御系统愿景的会晤地点,并提醒世界,高北地区仍对美国的力量和利益至关重要。
About 40 years ago, President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev met in Reykjavik, Iceland, and initiated the start of the thaw of Cold War tensions. Rubio returned to the site of the meeting where Reagan refused to surrender his vision of a space-based missile shield to the Soviets and reminded the world that the High North still matters for American power and interests.
卢比奥与冰岛外交部长并肩站立时指出,该地区仍然是“监控秘密行为和威慑对手的关键前哨”。当记者问他美国是否可能在那里扩大军事存在时,他未作出承诺,但强调如此行动需要冰岛的同意。谈判将继续进行,尽管他未点名提及俄罗斯或中国,但这两国如今正对美国及其盟友构成紧迫威胁。
Standing side by side with Iceland’s foreign minister, Rubio noted that the location remains a "critical outpost for monitoring clandestine behavior and deterring our adversaries." When a reporter asked him if the United States may expand its military footprint there, he didn’t commit to plans but emphasized that doing so would require Icelandic consent. The negotiations will continue, and, though he didn’t mention Russia or China by name, those are the nations now posing acute threats to the United States and its allies.
特朗普对格陵兰的执念并非偶然。以下是其中的利害关系。卢比奥访问雷克雅未克紧随其后的是与丹麦王国最近达成的里程碑式协议。该协议确保美国能够阻止中国在北极地区实施其惯常策略。该协议的批评者称,华盛顿与哥本哈根之间的谈判不过是“小题大做”,理由是中国目前尚未(实际)进入格陵兰。
TRUMP'S GREENLAND OBSESSION ISN’T RANDOM. HERE’S WHAT’S AT STAKE The Reykjavik visit follows the recently secured landmark deal with the Kingdom of Denmark. This deal ensures that the United States can prevent the Chinese from establishing its habitual scheme in the Arctic. Critics of the deal have said that the negotiations between Washington and Copenhagen were "much ado about nothing," considering that China isn’t (yet) in Greenland.
这完全错过了要点。随着冰层融化,北极航运通道正变得越来越可通航,新航线(因此形成的要冲点)将在未来数十年塑造全球航运和军事姿态。该协议赋予华盛顿阻止北约以外商业和军事力量在格陵兰部署的权力,直接参与筛查和加速关键领域外国投资、低空飞行、导弹防御获取以及在格陵兰领海内的无限制水下通航。
This misses the point. As the ice melts, Arctic shipping routes are becoming increasingly navigable, creating new sea lanes (and thus chokepoints) that will shape global shipping and military posturing for decades to come. The agreement gives Washington the authority to block non-NATO commercial and military presence in Greenland, a direct role in screening and accelerating foreign investment in critical sectors, overflight, missile defense access and unrestricted undersea access across Greenland’s territorial waters.
特朗普宣布在历史性格陵兰协议中取得胜利,确保“永久”美国军事权利 关键的是,该协议尊重格陵兰主权,这是丹麦的不可让步问题,同时协议将永久生效,无论格陵兰是否未来独立。由此,协议明确了1951年条约的沉默之处。若因想否认特朗普政府功劳而贬低该协议,则也低估了丹麦的真实让步和外交技巧。此外,该协议正值北约之需,北约坚定团结对抗俄罗斯在联盟内发起的恐怖袭击,这些袭击旨在削弱对乌克兰的支持。
TRUMP DECLARES VICTORY IN HISTORIC DEAL WITH GREENLAND AS HE SECURES 'PERMANENT' US MILITARY RIGHTS Critically, the deal honors Greenland’s sovereignty, a non-negotiable issue for Denmark, while remaining in force in perpetuity, regardless of if Greenland were to ever become independent. In doing so, the deal clarifies where the 1951 treaty was silent. Dismissing the deal perhaps due to a desire to deny the Trump administration credit also shortchanges the Danes’ very real concessions and diplomatic skill. Furthermore, the deal came just in time for NATO, whose steadfast solidarity is key as Russia ramps up its campaign of terror attacks across the alliance to collapse support for Ukraine.
多年而言,中国和巴拿马政府均否认中国正在接管巴拿马运河。但总统称,中国非法驻扎士兵以操作运河,且中国所有企业非法收取通行费,损害美国利益——美国投入数十亿美元维护运河,据美国政府称,72%的所有船舶(含往返美国港口的船舶)均在运行。中国的影响力机器:联邦记录揭露北京推动影响美国的行动多年来,美国一直麻痹大意,任由中国的渐进式商业扩张主导了运河。
For years, both the Chinese and Panamanian governments denied China was taking over the Panama Canal. But the president said that the Chinese had illegally stationed soldiers to operate the canal, and a Chinese-owned company was illegally charging for passage to the disadvantage of the United States, which has paid billions to maintain the canal, of which 72% of all vessels (according to the U.S. government) are transiting to or from an American port. CHINA’S INFLUENCE MACHINE: FEDERAL RECORDS EXPOSE BEIJING’S PUSH TO SWAY AMERICA For years, the U.S. was asleep at the wheel, allowing China’s incremental, commercial expansion to dominate the canal.
卢比奥与巴拿马人进行讨论后,巴拿马法院裁定,运河太平洋和大西洋入口处集装箱码头的经营合同违反宪法,并终止了该合同。
After Rubio’s discussions with the Panamanians, a Panamanian court ruled that the contract to operate the container terminals at the canal’s Pacific and Atlantic entrances violated the constitution, and it ended the contract.
一些人称赞特朗普总统的“交易艺术”在这些外交成功中发挥了作用——即提出最大主义要求,包括对可信盟友的侵略威胁,希望在开局威胁之下但接近威胁的范围内达成协议。但这是此处应吸取的错误教训。特朗普的格陵兰交易在数月争夺美国控制权后终于达成特朗普威胁以武力夺取格陵兰并未帮助美国与丹麦——一直是好盟友——达成此协议。相反,它在北约内部引发恐慌,削弱了政府更新和加强联盟的努力。只有在特朗普因反弹而停止威胁后,谈判才开始取得进展。
Some have praised President Donald Trump’s "Art of the Deal" for these diplomatic successes, that is, making maximalist demands including threats of aggression against trusted allies in the hopes of getting a deal somewhere short of the opening threat, but close to it. But that is the wrong lesson to learn here. TRUMP’S GREENLAND DEAL SET FORG AFTER MONTHS-LONG FIGHT OVER US CONTROL Trump’sthreats to seize Greenland by force did not help the United States achieve this deal with the Danes, who have been good allies. Instead, it created panic across NATO, which undermined the administration’s efforts to update and strengthen the alliance. Progress toward the deal onlybegan once Trump stopped making threats in response to the blowback.
1月21日,在达沃斯世界经济论坛前夕,特朗普的威胁导致金融市场出现急剧下跌。民调显示,91%的美国选民反对以军事手段夺取格陵兰,国会也明确反对。
On Jan. 21, in the lead-up to the Davos World Economic Forum, Trump’s threats contributed to a sharp decline in financial markets. Polling showed91% of U.S. voters opposed taking Greenland by military force, and Congress was decisively against it, too.
正如卢比奥所阐述的,特朗普政府认为美国的安全仍与欧洲相关联,美国必须确保北约强大,以便继续作为“对敌意的威慑”,使“我们的国家和大陆免受外部威胁,使我们的人民更加安全”。这些威胁是一种干扰;远见和有效的外交才是真正的故事。在这方面,卢比奥为总统和国家赢得了对中国和俄罗斯的显著成果。
Asarticulated by Rubio, the Trump administration believes the security of the United States remains linked to Europe’s and that the U.S. must make sure that NATO is strong so that it can continue to be a "deterrent against hostility" which makes "our nations and our continents safer from foreign threats and more secure for our people." The threats were a distraction; foresight and effective diplomacy are the real story. And, on that front, Rubio won for the president and the country significant gains over the Chinese and the Russians.