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巴西选民需要卢拉与博索纳罗的笼中决斗Brazil’s Voters Need a Lula-Bolsonaro Cage Fight

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巴西选民理应获得一个近距离观察的席位。Brazil’s voters deserve a ringside seat.

今年全球最大的选举之战正在进行,但我们仍未看到候选人正面交锋。

It’s the world’s biggest electoral fight this year, and yet we still haven’t seen the contenders throw a punch face to face.

距离关键的10月25日决选仅剩10天,巴西总统选举辩论的安排——现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦与挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗之间的辩论——仍然出人意料地不确定。理论上,两位候选人已确认参加原定于10月18日和10月23日的两场电视辩论中的第一场。但此前两场辩论已经取消,一场是在第一轮投票前的第十一小时临时取消,另一场原定于上周末举行,官方原因是“日程冲突”。

With just 10 days to go before the pivotal Oct. 25 runoff, the staging of Brazil’s presidential debates between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his challenger Flávio Bolsonaro remains surprisingly uncertain. In theory, both candidates have now confirmed their participation in the first of two televised showdowns scheduled for Oct. 18 and Oct. 23. But two previous debates have already been canceled, one at the eleventh hour just before the first round and another that was supposed to take place last weekend, officially because of a “scheduling conflict.”

愤世嫉俗的选举算计、对非必要失误的恐惧以及相互敌意,使得双方迟迟未能敲定正面交锋。周三,Kalshi预测至少有一次正面交锋发生的概率为93%,较前一天的63%有所上升,这是因为博尔索纳罗反复无常地表示他现在将参加周日的活动。关于候选人是否会辩论的博彩市场的存在,恰恰说明了局势仍然十分流动。根据AtlasIntel/Bloomberg的数据,卢拉在有效选票上落后博尔索纳罗5.6个百分点,他几乎没有什么可失去的,却有充分理由登台辩论。

Cynical electoral calculation, fear of unforced errors and mutual animosity have kept the campaigns from sealing a face-off until now. On Wednesday, Kalshi was giving a 93% chance that at least one confrontation would take place, up from 63% a day before, after Bolsonaro flip-flopped and said he would now attend Sunday’s event. The existence of a betting market on whether the candidates will debate tells you how fluid the situation remains. Lula, trailing Bolsonaro by 5.6 percentage points of valid votes according to AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, has little to lose and every reason to get onstage.

我们只能希望,最终这场备受期待的对决能够发生。否则,这将是一个明显的民主倒退——在一个民主支持正在削弱的国家。最新拉美巴罗梅特罗民调显示,只有41%的巴西人认为民主优于任何其他政府形式,这一数字在拉美地区仅高于危地马拉,是最低的。

Let’s just hope that, in the end, this highly anticipated clash happens. Otherwise, it would be a clear democratic setback in a country where support for democracy is eroding. Just 41% of Brazilians say democracy is preferable to any other form of government, the lowest regional figure after Guatemala in the latest Latinobarómetro poll.

辩论几乎不会成为游戏规则的改变者,但最近的一项Datafolha民意调查发现,78%的巴西人认为卢拉和博尔索纳罗参加辩论非常重要。如果他们不想把它作为一项民主练习,至少也应该出于战术原因这样做:从2006年的安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥布拉多尔到本月初的卢拉本人,那些为保护假想的领先优势而回避辩论的候选人随后在选举中遭遇了挫折。

Debates are hardly game-changers, but a recent Datafolha poll found that 78% of Brazilians consider it very important for Lula and Bolsonaro to participate. And if they don’t want to do it as a democratic exercise, at least they should do it for tactical reasons: From Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2006 to Lula himself earlier this month, candidates who avoided debates to protect an imagined lead have experienced pain at the ballot box afterward.

最重要的是,巴西需要这些辩论,因为选民有权清晰地听到候选人在他们三个最大关切问题上的具体提案:日益增长的财政赤字、围绕巴西最高法院的政治危机以及该国令人担忧的不安全感上升趋势。可以说,到目前为止,卢拉和博尔索纳罗在这些问题上的具体做法都相当含糊,使得竞选更像是左右派的喊叫对决,而不是严肃的思想交流。

Above all, Brazil needs these debates because voters have the right to hear, loud and clear, the candidates’ specific proposals on three of their biggest concerns: the growing fiscal deficit, the political crisis around Brazil’s Supreme Court and the country’s worrying wave of insecurity. It’s fair to say that, so far, both Lula and Bolsonaro have been shy on details about how they would tackle these issues, making the campaign more a left-right shouting match than a serious exchange of ideas.

例如,博尔索纳罗表示,如果当选,他将像阿根廷的哈维尔·米莱一样,动用“大剪刀”来处理税收、官僚主义和腐败问题,以使预算平衡。但他一直小心翼翼地避免给出财政调整的确切数字。虽然当地媒体报道称他的经济顾正在研究初步削减约占GDP 2%的预算,但在公开场合他们却否认私有化,承诺加强社会项目,并表示将减税给企业。博尔索纳罗的财政调整将聚焦于“政府过剩”这一论点听起来似乎合理,但即使不是经济学家也知道,表面的改动几乎无法让巴西的债务轨迹回到可持续的道路上。

Bolsonaro, for instance, has said he will wield “the big scissors” on taxes, bureaucracy and corruption to put the budget in order, à la Javier Milei in Argentina, if elected. But he has been careful not to put a precise number on the fiscal adjustment. While the local press has reported that his economic advisers are studying an initial budget cut of about 2% of GDP, in public they have ruled out privatizations, promised to strengthen social programs and said they will cut taxes to businesses. The argument that Bolsonaro’s fiscal adjustment will focus on “government excesses” may sound reasonable yet you don’t have to be an economist to know that cosmetic changes will hardly put Brazil’s debt trajectory back on a sustainable path.

卢拉方面,在第一轮失利后,他进一步强化了反犯罪信息,并重新承诺要把坏人关进监狱:“对劳动人民,提供保护;对罪犯,实行监禁。”这是他的新口号。你若想知道为什么他或他的党在这一世纪他们执政的16年里没有这样做,也不会错。

Lula, for his part, strengthened his anti-crime message after his first-round defeat, with a renewed pledge to imprison the bad guys: “For the working people, protection. For the criminal, prison,” is his new slogan. You wouldn’t be wrong to wonder why he or his party haven’t done this during the 16 years this century that they have been in government.

还有棘手的最高法院问题。卢拉在要求司法改革和为有争议的法官亚历山大·德·莫拉埃斯辩护之间走钢丝,而博尔索纳罗希望弹劾这位法官。无论谁赢得决选,都将在下一个总统任期内有机会任命至少四名最高法院大法官。巴西人有权听到两位候选人明确说明他们正在考虑什么改革,以改善一个长期对国家造成损害的机构。

And then there is the thorny issue of the Supreme Court, with Lula walking a fine line between calling for reform of the judiciary and defending controversial judge Alexandre de Moraes, whom Bolsonaro wants to impeach. Whoever wins the runoff will be in a position to appoint at least four Supreme Court justices during the next presidential term. Brazilians deserve to hear explicitly from both candidates what changes they are considering to improve an institution that has done a disservice to the country for too long.

即便你认为巴西的右翼转向此刻已经不可阻挡,辩论也能在决策日之前就这些关键问题提供更大的透明度。不幸的是,候选人似乎更专注于通过有利的法院裁决来获取法律优势,而不是对选民保持完全透明。事实上,当地媒体《环球报》的一份报告发现,竞选团队在第一轮仅就向选举法院提起了698起针对对手的诉讼,几乎是上次选举的三倍。这些案件的绝大多数是博尔索纳罗的代表针对卢拉的,或反之亦然。

Even if you think Brazil’s rightwing turn is, at this point, unstoppable, debates would provide greater transparency on all these key issues ahead of decision day. Unfortunately, the candidates seem more focused on trying to capture legal advantages through favorable court rulings than on being fully transparent with voters. In fact, a report by local outlet O Globo found that the campaigns opened 698 cases against rivals in the electoral courts during just the first round, almost three times more than in the previous election. The big majority of the cases were filed by Bolsonaro’s representatives against Lula’s, or vice versa.

这种策略是对资源和精力的巨大浪费,而且还胆怯。与其浪费时间在琐碎的司法斗争上,候选人应该告诉选民他们将做些什么来改善人们的生活。如果你连站出来、在几个小时内捍卫自己的想法以对抗最接近的对手都做不到,也许你应该考虑换一行业。

This strategy is a massive waste of resources and focus, and cowardly to boot. Instead of losing time with petty judicial battles, candidates should tell the electorate what they will do to improve their lives. If you can’t stand up and defend your ideas against your closest rival for a couple of hours, perhaps you should think about another line of business.