截至2023年1月28日，乌克兰战争本应在“24小时内”得到解决。伊朗战争大约在2026年3月11日，本应是一次持续“几周”的“小规模远征”。还有谁能相信唐纳德·特朗普？
As of January 28, 2023, the war in Ukraine was supposed to be resolved "in 24 hours." The war in Iran, circa March 11, 2026, was to be "a little excursion" lasting "a couple of weeks." Who can still believe Donald Trump?
当然不是乌克兰人，他们的领导人因前总统乔·拜登的拖延和犹豫而感到沮丧，后悔曾经希望他在2024年重返白宫。由于西方装备短缺，乌克兰的防空力量被削弱，基辅的夜晚充斥着无人机和导弹的持续轰炸。对能源基础设施和民用目标——公寓楼、公交车、火车——的袭击已加剧。乌克兰人知道，俄罗斯希望通过制造极其严酷的冬天来击垮他们，迫使他们屈服。
Certainly not Ukrainians, whose leaders, frustrated by former president Joe Biden's delays and hesitations, regret having ever wished for his White House return in 2024. With Ukrainian air defenses weakened by shortages of Western equipment, nights in Kyiv feature a constant barrage of drones and missiles. Strikes on energy infrastructure and civilian targets – apartment buildings, buses, trains – have intensified. Ukrainians know that Russia wants to break them by inflicting an extremely harsh winter, forcing them into submission.
然而，美国总统面临着他认为更大、更个人化的挑战：11月3日的中期选举。他国会多数党的前景并不乐观。中东地区的战争导致油价飙升。特朗普正抓住任何可能有助于防止不可想象后果的事物——特别是燃料。承认他的“小旅行”是美国生活成本危机的根源，就意味着要自己承担责任。因此，他在一次惊人的欺骗行为中拼凑出一项协议，以向美国市场进口俄罗斯柴油。
The US president, however, faces what he sees as a bigger, more personal challenge: the midterm elections on November 3. The outlook for his congressional majority is not good. The war raging in the Middle East has sent gas prices soaring. Trump is grasping at anything that might help prevent the unthinkable – in particular, fuel. Admitting that his "little excursion" is at the root of the US cost-of-living crisis would mean accepting the blame himself. So, in a remarkable act of deception, he cobbled together a deal to import Russian diesel for the American market.
弗拉基米尔·普京很乐意授予他这一恩惠。而弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基则不然，特朗普一直对他抱有蔑视，他被要求停止轰炸俄罗斯炼油厂，美国总统宣称了一场“能源停火”。莫斯科从未停止对乌克兰的攻击，泽连斯基认为这是俄罗斯“对美国的夸张不尊重”的表现。乌克兰总统对单方面放弃对俄罗斯油料设施的打击毫无兴趣，这是基辅最有效的武器之一。
Vladimir Putin was happy to grant him this favor. Volodymyr Zelensky, on the other hand, whom Trump has never stopped holding in contempt, was asked to stop bombing Russian refineries, with the US President proclaiming an "energy ceasefire." Moscow never stopped its attacks on Ukraine, which Zelensky sees as a sign of Russia's "ostentatious disrespect toward the United States." The Ukrainian president has no interest in unilaterally giving up strikes on Russian oil facilities, one of Kyiv's most effective weapons.
这就是为什么特朗普把事情升级了一级：他说，乌克兰人应该换总统。他从未对俄罗斯人说过这样的话，因为俄罗斯的领导层已经26年未变。美国总统甚至从未说过俄罗斯是这场冲突的侵略者。在美国，评论家们将针对泽连斯基的最新攻势与2025年2月28日发生的椭圆形办公室事件相提并论，当时特朗普和副总统JD·万斯当众羞辱了他。
That's why Trump took it up a notch: Ukrainians, he said, should change their president. He's never said as much to Russians, whose leadership hasn't changed in 26 years. The US president has never even said Russia was the aggressor in this conflict. In the US, commentators have compared the latest offensive against Zelensky to the Oval Office incident on February 28, 2025, when Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly humiliated him.