我职业生涯中认识的政治策划人是我见过的最聪明、最有趣、最博学、最令人印象深刻的人之一。他们也是我见过的对其他人怀有最炽热敌意的人。
The political strategists I have known in my career are among the smartest, most interesting, most knowledgeable, and most impressive people I have ever met. They are also capable of more white-hot animus for other people than anyone I have ever met.
我所说的并不是民主党人憎恨共和党人，或反之亦然。这种关系通常是可以管理的。有时他们甚至会共享同一家企业客户。
And I am not talking about Democrats hating Republicans, or vice versa. That is frequently a manageable relationship. Sometimes they even share a corporate client.
关键中期选举冲刺阶段，摇摆州的共和党人在关键问题上与特朗普决裂。我所说的厌恶是指党内的厌恶。那就是当这种仇恨超过所有其他人际关系时。
BATTLEGROUND REPUBLICANS BREAK WITH TRUMP ON KEY ISSUES IN FINAL MIDTERM SPRINT The disgust to which I refer is intraparty. That is when the hatred becomes unmatched by all other human relationships.
比格林达在《魔法坏女巫》开头对埃尔法巴的纯粹、未掺杂的厌恶更甚；比租户憎恨她残忍且古怪的房东更甚；比红袜队憎恨洋基队更甚。这些人是圆形火刑队的专家，会在帐篷内开火箭筒。
More than Glinda felt pure, unadulterated loathing for Elphaba at the beginning of "Wicked." More than a tenant despises her cruel and unusual landlord. More than the Red Sox detest the Yankees. These folks are experts at circular firing squads and shooting off bazookas inside the tent.
大多数政治策划人憎恨两件事：输掉竞选和亏钱。这两件事是相关联的。选举失利可能让你失去下一个客户。被归咎于选举失利可能让你失去几个客户。
Most political strategists detest two things: losing campaigns and losing money. The pair is connected. An election defeat can cost you your next client. Being blamed for an election defeat can cost you several.
因此，有一个相当大的职业动机去证明这场灾难是可以预见的、可以避免的，并且肯定是别人造成的。
There is, therefore, a substantial professional incentive to establish that the catastrophe was foreseeable, preventable, and definitely somebody else’s doing.
距离选举日还有几周时，民主党策划人感觉良好或很好，而共和党人则从不安且坚定到绝对糟糕。后者已经开始在特定观众面前排练他们的指责。其中一些观众是记者。中期选举历史巨大地有利于民主党。但他们正在犯一个大错误。如果选举结果令人失望，民主党不需要漫长的热身期。
With a few weeks to go before Election Day, Democratic strategists are feeling good or great, while Republicans range from uneasy and determined to absolutely horrible. The latter have begun rehearsing their recriminations with select audiences. Some of those audiences are reporters. MIDTERM HISTORY MASSIVELY FAVORS DEMOCRATS. BUT THEY ARE MAKING A BIG MISTAKE The Democrats will not need a lengthy warm-up period if the election disappoints.
目前正在进行两场平行的竞选：一场是为了赢得选举，另一场是为了赢得关于为何输掉选举的争论。
There are two parallel campaigns underway: the one to win the election and the one to win the argument about why it was lost.
李·卡特：特朗普仍能吸引注意力，但他能否转移选民对账单的关注？
LEE CARTER: TRUMP CAN STILL GET ATTENTION, CAN HE DISTRACT VOTERS FROM THEIR BILLS?
在共和党方面，最简单的论点也是最难以反驳的。一个人控制着这个党，他的名字叫特朗普。
On the Republican side, the simplest argument is also the hardest to refute. One man controls the party, and his name is Trump.
他的顾问可以建议一个信息、一个日程、一个开支计划，或一段祝福的沉默。但他们无法保证这些建议能够得到执行。
His advisers can recommend a message, a schedule, a spending plan, or a period of blessed silence. They cannot guarantee delivery.
因此，共和党的全面失利将导致对特朗普的全面起诉：他的不受欢迎、他的缺乏纪律、他的经济决策、他的外部纠葛、他家庭的致富，以及他显然取之不尽的兴趣——即把自己的名字附加到各种事物上。特朗普对人工智能和数据中心的欢呼也在伤害共和党，同样疏远了那些看到更高电费和工作威胁的选民，而他却看到一个光荣的未来。
A Republican wipeout would thus produce a comprehensive Trump indictment: his unpopularity, his indiscipline, his economic decisions, his foreign entanglements, his family’s enrichment, and his apparently inexhaustible interest in attaching his name to things. Trump’s cheerleading for AI and data centers is hurting Republicans, too, alienating voters who see higher electric bills and threats to their jobs where he sees a glorious future.
工作人员的辩护将是他们无法控制他。而控方的回应将是：承担未能妥善管理他所带来后果的责任，在职位描述中其实已经相当突出地写明了这一点。
The defense of the staff will be that they could not control him. The prosecution’s response will be that taking responsibility for the consequences of not managing him properly was rather prominently included in the job description.
福克斯新闻民意调查：因成本压力而困扰、沮丧的选民转向民主党 去年年底曾有一种看似合理的共和党乐观论点。民主党内部存在分歧，参议院选举形势有利，新颖的十年中期重新划分选区方案似乎正在发挥作用，共和党也可以抱有希望：如果承诺的好处开始兑现，选民或许能够容忍经济的喜忧参半。
FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS There had been a plausible Republican case for optimism late last year. Democrats were divided, the Senate map was favorable, the novel mid-decade redistricting plan seemed to be working, and Republicans could hope voters would tolerate an economic mixed bag if the promised benefits began arriving.
然而，担心杂货价格的选民看到的是一个关注建筑命名的总统。为退休储蓄而入不敷出的家庭听到的是关于舞厅的消息。买不起房的年轻人看着总统家庭在做交易。
Instead, a voter worried about groceries sees a president worried about building names. A family falling behind on retirement savings hears about a ballroom. A young adult unable to afford a house watches the president’s family make deals.
这不是经济问题，傻瓜。美国人根据他们的个人经济投票 每个故事都为下一个故事提供了标题。
IT’S NOT THE ECONOMY, STUPID. AMERICANS VOTE BASED ON THEIR PERSONAL ECONOMY Each story supplies the caption for the next one.
政治损害要求选民得出结论：总统花在自己周边事务上的时间，比花在他们身上的时间更多。
The political damage requires voters to conclude that the president is spending more time on his surroundings than on theirs.
“为什么他专注于华盛顿的一座艺术建筑，而不是我的钱包？”——这是一个没有任何共和党媒体购买者能够通过另一段引用佐兰·曼丹尼或AOC的视频来回答的问题。
"Why is he focused on a Washington arts building instead of my wallet?" is a question no Republican media buyer can answer with another video invoking Zohran Mamdani or AOC.
伊朗冲突使问题更加复杂：能源成本上升，又一场似乎永无止境的外国战争，以及一位竞选时承诺要避免此类纠缠的总统。
The Iran conflict compounds the problem: higher energy costs, another foreign war that seems to be taking forever, and a president who campaigned on avoiding precisely that sort of entanglement.
众议院议长迈克·约翰逊和参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩也将面临类似的指责：国会共和党人推出的内容太少，选民既无法感受、理解，也难以记住。一项需要工作人员简报才能领会其价值的立法成就，很难在30秒的广告中有效传达。
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune will face a related accusation: that congressional Republicans produced too little voters could feel, understand, or remember. A legislative accomplishment that requires a staff briefing to appreciate is difficult to sell in a 30-second spot.
美国民众每月有一笔无法避免的开支，正因新兴行业而悄然激增：数据。共和党人有钱，但他们缺乏足够有说服力的全国性信息，无法让这笔钱发挥效力。
ONE MONTHLY BILL AMERICANS CAN’T AVOID IS QUIETLY SURGING THANKS TO EMERGING INDUSTRY: DATA Republicans have money. What they have lacked is a national message persuasive enough to make that money work.
顾问们会说，各委员会委托制作的广告内容老套，攻击手段重复，而且播出时间太晚。如果这些广告失败，批准它们的人会说测试表明广告有效；而反对它们的人则会说，他们一直知道测试结果有误。
The consultants will say the committees commissioned stale spots and recycled attacks, and started airing them too late. If the spots fail, the people who approved them will explain that testing showed they worked. The people who opposed them will explain that they always knew the testing was wrong.
负责拉票的人将被问及，为何无法让那些只为特朗普投票的选民，在特朗普未出现在选票上的选举中再次回归。候选人招募者则会被问及，为何忠诚度有时甚至超过了当选的可能性。
The turnout people will be asked why they could not bring Trump-only voters back for an election without Trump on the ballot. The candidate recruiters will be asked why loyalty at times outranked electability.
个别候选人将被指责要么与他抱得太紧，要么抛弃他太快。有些人甚至可能同时被指责犯下这两种错误。
Individual candidates will be blamed for hugging him too tightly or abandoning him too quickly. Some may achieve the distinction of being blamed for both.
福克斯新闻权力榜：众议院失守，参议院仍具竞争力。而媒体将在共和党的解释中占据其惯常位置：掩盖成就、放大弱点，并让每位共和党候选人都为特朗普负责。而民主党的版本则不会那么聚焦于一人，内容也会丰富得多。
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: AS THE HOUSE FALLS, THE SENATE STAYS IN PLAY And the media will occupy its customary place in the Republican explanation: burying accomplishments, magnifying liabilities, and making every Republican candidate answer for Trump. The Democratic version will be less centered on one man and considerably more crowded.
假设民主党勉强赢得众议院，却未能拿下参议院。原本可能被视为成功的中期选举结果，最终却可能成为对某个政党的控诉——这个政党曾说服自己，本应取得远比这更大的胜利。
Suppose Democrats barely take the House and fail to win the Senate. What might once have been celebrated as a successful midterm could become an indictment of a party that persuaded itself it was entitled to a much bigger one.
一旦某种结果被视作必然，那么每一个未能被浪潮冲上岸的席位，都会成为失职的证据。
Once a wave becomes the assumed outcome, every seat it fails to wash ashore becomes evidence of malpractice.
参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默和众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯将被指责领导无方。进步派会说，该党向选民提供的东西太少，不足以让他们感到兴奋。温和派则会说，进步派向共和党人提供的东西实在太多，反而让他们难以兴奋。
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will be accused of weak leadership. The progressives will say the party offered voters too little to get excited about. The moderates will say the progressives offered Republicans entirely too much to get excited about.
那些将特朗普塑造成核心议题的策略家们，将被指责忽视了家庭开支问题。而那些强调家庭开支的策略家们，则会被指责未能让选民充分认识到特朗普带来的危险。
Strategists who made Trump the central issue will be accused of neglecting household costs. Strategists who emphasized household costs will be accused of failing to make voters understand the full danger of Trump.
共和党亿万富翁将被指责用金钱操控最后几周，而他们的民主党对手则会被指责坐怀金库、袖手旁观。
Republican billionaires will be accused of buying the final weeks, and their Democratic counterparts will be blamed for sitting on their wallets.
民主党媒体的抱怨将与共和党媒体正好相反：特朗普被过度正常化，而他的对手却受到了更严苛的评判标准。
The Democratic media complaint will be the inverse of the Republican one: Trump was normalized and his opponents held to a higher standard.
当撰写事后报告的人本身仍在争夺下一份合同时，这份报告根本不可能保持中立。
There is no neutral after-action report when the authors are competing for the next contract.
但这并不意味着相互指责毫无价值。有时，最愤怒的那个人恰恰最清楚失败的原因。政治策略家们非常擅长发现其他策略家的错误。但在发现自己的错误时，他们却远没有那么一致。
That does not make the recriminations worthless. Sometimes the angriest person understands the failure best. Political strategists are very good at spotting other political strategists’ mistakes. They are less consistent about spotting their own.
等到选举结果出炉时，双方都会准备好各自的解释、支持性的轶事，以及那些记得自己曾被忽视的证人。唯一他们做不到的，就是足够地责备自己。
By the time the returns are in, both sides will have ready explanations, supporting anecdotes, and witnesses who remember being ignored. The only thing they will not have is enough blame for themselves.