作者：大卫·M·德鲁克抱怨公共关系工作不力，往往是政治失败者最后的托词。这种现象在两党中都普遍存在，每逢美国大选都会出现，今年的中期选举亦不例外。而唐纳德·特朗普总统便是这一现象的“首例”。
Complaining about subpar public relations is the last refuge of the political loser. It’s a bipartisan affliction that surfaces in every American election, including this year’s midterm campaign. President Donald Trump is patient zero this time.
他的共和党或许会在选举日给所有人带来惊喜。但种种迹象表明，选民们很可能将众议院的控制权交到民主党手中——甚至美国参议院也有可能易主，尽管该议院目前由共和党以53比47的席位优势掌控。这再次印证了左翼势力的选举实力：特朗普自己也哀叹，共和党未能向那些经济处境艰难的选民充分说明他们的生活其实有多么富足。
His Republican Party might yet surprise everyone on Election Day. But every indicator suggests voters are poised to deliver control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats — and maybe the US Senate, too, despite structural disadvantages that buttress the GOP’s 53-47 majority in that chamber. Yet another forecast of the left’s electoral strength: Trump’s own lament that Republicans haven’t adequately informed voters who are struggling economically just how prosperous their lives really are.
“我们在宣传方面做得极其糟糕，但在治理国家方面却相当出色，”这位处境艰难的总统最近坚称。随后他又找了个借口：“我们唯一欠缺的就是良好的公共关系。”特朗普似乎一心想把共和党当前政治困境的责任归咎于宣传不力，甚至不惜把责任推到自己身上。“我为自己所做的工作感到非常自豪，”特朗普说道，“不过我在解释工作成果方面做得实在糟糕。”
“We’re doing an extremely poor job of promotion and an extremely good job of running the country,” the beleaguered president insisted recently. Then there was this excuse: “The only thing we don’t have is good public relations.”Trump appears so intent on off-loading responsibility for the GOP’s political predicament on faulty messaging that he was even willing to blame himself. “I’m very proud [of] the job we’ve done,” Trump said. “But I’ve done a very bad job of explaining.”
这位总统急于为自己仅38.4%的支持率寻找除自身政策与领导能力之外的“替罪羊”，这种心理完全可以理解。他试图为民主党在民意测验中领先8.3%这一结果寻找合理理由，同样也是出于这种心理——否则他就必须面对选民的结论：在物价水平等对他们至关重要的议题上，他是个失败的总统。民众对特朗普在应对通胀方面的评价比其整体支持率低了11个百分点，这无异于一次不信任投票。
The president’s overriding desire to identify a culprit other than his agenda, and his leadership, for his 38.4% job approval rating is understandable. The same goes for Trump’s attempt to rationalize the Democratic Party’s 8.3% lead on the generic ballot gauging which party voters would prefer to control Congress. The alternative would be reckoning with voters’ conclusion that he is a failed president on issues — like affordability — that matter most to them. That Americans rate Trump 11 points lower on inflation than his overall job approval is the equivalent of a vote of no-confidence.
话说回来，当总统屡屡将选民对于生计问题的担忧斥为“骗局”时，他实在很难维持民众的信任。即便是最出色的公关策略——而特朗普所做的远称不上出色——也难以弥补这种自己造成的伤害。
Then again, it’s difficult for the president to maintain voters’ confidence when he regularly dismisses their anxiety about making ends meet as “a hoax.”Even the best PR campaign — and Trump’s effort is hardly that — would have a hard time healing that self-inflicted wound.
如果总统承认选民的批评是有道理的，那将动摇他自身的所有信念：作为民选领袖的“无所不能”论、他对国际贸易及关税效力等问题的固有看法（或者说直觉？）、他对伊朗战争的处置方式，以及他的行政管理能力。要做到这点恐怕难如登天。在这方面，这位第45任兼第47任总统也并无特别之处。
The president accepting voters’ stinging indictment would call into question everything he believes — about his omnipotence as an elected leader; closely held beliefs (or is it instincts?) on matters like international trade and the efficacy of tariffs; his management of the Iran war; and his bureaucratic prowess. Good luck with that. In that regard, the 45th and 47th president is hardly unique.
在面临中期选举或连任竞选压力时，总统们常拿公众观感作为选民不满的借口，这种情况屡见不鲜。从事竞选报道25年来，我对此深有体会。
Griping about public perception as a means to explain voter discontent is common among presidents in tough midterm and reelection battles. I’ve learned as much after a quarter century of reporting on campaigns.
新闻媒体往往是他们指责的对象。2006年，随着伊拉克战争引发的负面舆论愈演愈烈，最终导致共和党失去国会多数席位，乔治·W·布什总统及其支持者便频繁将矛头指向记者。言下之意是：倘若没有那些歪曲美国在中东军事行动的带有偏见的报道，选民或许会对这场战争持更正面的态度，共和党也就能保住众议院与参议院的多数席位了。
A favorite target is the news media. President George W. Bush and his supporters often pointed fingers at journalists as backlash over the Iraq War developed in 2006, eventually sweeping Republicans from power in Congress. The implication: Voters would have thought better of the conflict, and possibly preserved the GOP’s House and Senate majorities, absent biased coverage that painted an unfair portrait of US military action in the Middle East.
2014年，共和党通过赢得九席而掌控参议院之后，民主党轮到了将问题归咎于宣传策略的时候。面对选民对经济状况的体验以及对“伊斯兰国”（ISIS）的担忧，总统巴拉克·奥巴马并未予以回应，反而在第二次中期选举中，将选民对自己的严厉批评归咎于宣传方式。奥巴马说：“仅仅造出一个更出色的捕鼠器还不够，我们还得把它卖出去。”
It was the Democrats’ turn to scapegoat messaging in 2014 after Republicans flipped the Senate with a massive nine-seat gain. Instead of validating voters’ economic experiences and fears about ISIS, President Barack Obama explained their harsh rebuke in the second midterm election he presided over by blaming the marketing. "It's not enough just to build a better mousetrap," Obama said.
（不过，至少他承认了自己在推销方面的不足，这一点值得肯定。）对公关策略的批评偶尔也是有道理的。如果一个政党在电视或社交媒体平台上被竞争对手的声音淹没，那么其糟糕的民调数据可能源于资源不足，而非关键议题上的立场问题。如果一位候选人的政策主张广受支持，却未能聚焦于选民最紧迫的关切，那么宣传策略确实可能是问题所在——而且这个问题是可以解决的。
"We've got to sell it.” (But kudos for owning the bad salesmanship, I suppose.) Complaints about public relations are occasionally warranted. If a political party is being drowned out by the competition on television or social media platforms, it’s possible that a lack of resources, not positions on key issues, is the cause of poor poll numbers. If a candidate’s agenda is broadly appealing but not focused on voters’ urgent priorities, it’s possible that messaging is, in fact, the problem — and fixable.
然而，距离选举日已不足四周，广告分析和筹款报告显示，共和党并未在资金或媒体曝光时间上处于劣势。事实上，对资金短缺以及可能在电视和网络上被对手超越支出的担忧，完全是民主党所面临的问题。与此同时，许多共和党候选人正聚焦于选民最关心的议题，尤其是高昂的生活成本。一些候选人甚至敦促特朗普无论实地局势如何，都应结束不受欢迎的伊朗战争。那么，他们面临的挑战是什么呢？答案就是：总统本人。
But less than four weeks until Election Day, advertising analyses and fundraising reports have shown that Republicans aren’t suffering from financial or airtime disadvantages. Indeed, anxiety about money and getting outspent on the air, and online, is strictly a Democratic concern. Meanwhile, many Republican candidates are focused on the issues voters care about most, notably the high cost of living. Some are even urging Trump to wind down the unpopular Iran war regardless of conditions on the ground. Their challenge, then? Well, the president.
特朗普拥有美国最响亮的政治扩音器，也是共和党的无可争议领袖。当大多数其他共和党候选人都在进行竞选活动时，选民们听到和看到的正是他。这确实是一个棘手的困境。除非总统立即承认选民的挫败感，并据此调整其政策议程，否则2026年大选很可能会以民主党的胜利告终——当然，前提是现在尚未为改变此次选举的格局为时已晚。
Trump has the country’s loudest political megaphone and is the undisputed leader of the GOP. He’s who voters are hearing and who they are seeing, when most other Republican candidates are campaigning. That’s quite the dilemma. And unless the president immediately acknowledges voters’ frustrations and alters his agenda based on that, 2026 is likely to end on a high note for Democrats — if it’s not already too late to change the dynamics of this election.
政界有一句老话，大意是：“重要的不是信息内容，而是传递信息的人。”而在这件事上，两者都很关键。
There’s an old saw in politics that goes something like this: “It’s not the message; it’s the messenger.”In this case, it’s both.