并非所有的中期选举惨败都一样。即将在11月3日重创共和党的风暴，源于选民对白宫总统唐纳德·特朗普的炽烈不满，这与2018年选举中对“唐纳德·特朗普本人”进行的广泛否定形成鲜明对比。
Not all midterm-election wipeouts are created equal. The gathering storm poised to wallop Republicans Nov. 3 is fueled by white-hot voter frustration with Donald Trump the president, a stark contrast with contests in 2018 that culminated in a broad rejection of Donald Trump the man.
美国人在近两年前把特朗普送回白宫时，已经非常清楚自己将得到谁。那时已不再盲目期待这位民粹挑衅者会转变为总统级的政治家——这种期待在2016年底和2017年初曾盛行。相反，务实的乐观情绪占据上风，人们认为这位前任兼未来的最高统帅将能够抑制高企的通胀，并恢复选民记忆中他第一任期的地缘政治稳定和疫情前的繁荣经济。
Americans knew exactly who they were getting nearly two years ago when they returned Trump to the White House. There was no more blind hope that the populist provocateur would transform into a presidential statesman, as was rampant in late 2016 and early 2017. Instead, pragmatic optimism prevailed that the former-and-future commander-in-chief would neutralize sky-high inflation while resurrecting the geopolitical stability and booming, pre-Covid economy voters recalled from his first term.
特朗普在这些基本议题上的失利如今正危及共和党的多数席位。民主党不仅有望夺回众议院，还可能在克服严重结构性劣势的情况下夺取参议院。总统只能为自己的议程和决策负责。
Trump’s failure to deliver on these basic issues is now jeopardizing Republican majorities. Not only are Democrats poised to flip the House; they could capture the Senate, too, despite navigating severe structural disadvantages. The president only has his agenda and decision-making to blame.
特朗普对国际贸易关系的扰乱、他下令对伊朗发动的战争、以及他对诸多炫耀性项目的高度投入——其中包括在白宫建造舞厅——等，都因生活成本仍然高企、全球紧张局势未见降温而以失败告终。民主党在各级选举中的候选人将于选举日获得政治收益。
Trump’s disruption of international trade relationships; the war he ordered against Iran; his considerable devotion to vanity projects, among them building a White House ballroom; and so much more have flopped because the cost of living remains unacceptably high and global tensions have not cooled. Democrats up and down the ballot are poised to reap political benefits on Election Day.
公开的民意调查在选举日前不到三周时揭示了情况。特朗普的工作批准率已降至38%。他对外交政策的领导能力评估更差，仅为35%。他对通胀的处理评分更低，仅为27%，而民主党在普选民意调查中领先共和党，该调查衡量选民希望哪个党派控制国会，领先幅度达到决定性的8个百分点（50%对42%）。这是正常的，这种品质常不被与特朗普联系在一起。
Public polling tells the tale less than three weeks before Election Day. Trump’s job approval rating has slipped to 38%. The assessment of his leadership on foreign policy is even worse, at 35%. His handling of inflation receives lower marks still, at 27%, and Democrats lead the GOP on the generic ballot, gauging which party voters would prefer be in control of Congress, by a majority-making 8 percentage points (50% to 42%.) This is normal, a quality not often associated with Trump.
而且，对于共和党而言，情况正在变得比选民八年前对总统的个人否定还要糟。事实上，2018年那波蓝色浪潮——曾让共和党失去众议院多数席位以及两个摇摆州的参议院席位——相比之下，如今可能只能看作是涟漪。
And it’s shaping up so much worse for the GOP than voters’ personal rejections of the president were eight years ago. Indeed, the blue wave that hammered Republicans in 2018 — costing them the House majority plus two, swing-state Senate seats — could look ultimately like a ripple by comparison.
那次中期选举的发展却截然不同。当时的选举是对特朗普个人行为和煽动性言论的公投。疲惫的选民转向民主党，以摆脱一位社交媒体上言论不可预测、白宫事务混乱不堪的政治表演者。特朗普的执政记录并未真正成为审判焦点，除去选民对国会共和党试图废除《平价医疗法案》（即奥巴马医改）失败努力的焦虑之外。在这方面，2018年不同于大多数总统在现代史上遭遇的中期选举失利。再次说明，民意调查具有指导意义。
That midterm election unfolded much differently. The contest was a referendum on Trump's personal conduct and inflammatory rhetoric. Exhausted voters turned to Democrats for relief from a political showman with unpredictable social media rants and chaotic White House shenanigans. Trump’s governing record wasn’t really on trial, except for voter anxiety over congressional Republicans’ failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. In that regard, 2018 was different from most midterm rebukes, suffered by most presidents in the modern era. Again, polling is instructive.
根据CBS新闻的一项调查，特朗普在那一年10月中旬——即他首次中期选举前几周——的工作批准率仅为42%。民主党在普选民意调查中的领先幅度为9个百分点（51%对42%）。值得注意的是，多数选民——52%——对总统处理经济的方式表示满意，经济始终是首要议题。民意调查发现，包括民主党在内的多数美国人对经济给出了好评。那么，如何解释民主党在众议院席位上以41席之差的惨败？
Trump’s job approval rating in mid-October of that year, weeks before his first midterm election, was a low 42%, according to a CBS News survey. The Democratic lead on the generic ballot was 9 points (51% to 42%.) Remarkably, a majority of voters — 52% — were pleased with the president’s handling of the economy, a major priority as always. A majority of Americans, including Democrats, gave the economy good reviews, the poll found. How then, to explain the Democrats’ 41-seat rout in the House?
在友好的共和党阵营之外，选民对特朗普缺乏礼仪感到厌倦。根据 PRRI 2018 年 10 月的民调，69% 的所有选民，其中包括 77% 的独立选民，表示特朗普“损害了总统的尊严”。此外，69% 的所有选民，其中包括 67% 的独立选民，甚至 57% 的共和党人，期望他的“言论和行为更符合以往总统的做法”。特朗普对政治礼仪的漠视在其第一任期初期对选民产生了深远影响，以至于 54% 的多数选民认为“他的行为鼓励了白人至上主义团体”。
Outside the confines of friendly GOP territory, voters were simply fed up with Trump’s lack of decorum. Sixty-nine percent of all voters, including 77% of independents, said Trump had “damaged the dignity of the presidency,” per October 2018 polling from PRRI. Additionally, 69% of all voters, including 67% of independents and even 57% of Republicans, wished his “speech and behavior were more consistent with previous presidents.”Trump’s disregard for political etiquette had such a profound impact on voters early in his first presidency that a majority, at 54%, concluded that “his behavior had encouraged white supremacist groups.”
这并不意味着选民此后对这位总统的民粹主义拳击风格——本届任期中充斥着粗俗的亵渎、侮辱和不体面的自我宣传——有所回暖。仅仅是因为 2024 年的选民已经了解特朗普的本质，并且只要他还能像他们想象中的商人一样执政并解决他们对经济的担忧，就愿意表现出一定的灵活性。
None of which is to say that voters have since warmed up to the president’s populist pugilism, infected as it is during this term with rank profanity, insults, and unseemly self-promotion. It’s simply a recognition that voters in 2024 understood who Trump was, and were willing to show some flexibility, as long as he also governed like the businessman of their imagination and addressed their concerns about the economy.
他并未做到。而 2026 年因而可能比 2018 年对共和党造成更糟糕的局面。
He hasn’t. And 2026 stands to finish a whole lot worse for Republicans than 2018 because of it.