周日清晨，特朗普总统在Truth Social上发帖宣布：“自即刻起，俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的战争将实现能源停火。”
Early Sunday morning, President Trump announced in a Truth Social post that “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine.”
随后，特朗普强调“双方均已同意”这一停火安排，并警告莫斯科和基辅“不得破坏”。
Trump then emphasized that “both parties have agreed” to it and then admonished Moscow and Kyiv to “not break it.”
到中午，据Axios报道，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，“这一停火声明对我来说是个新消息”。不过，泽连斯基同时说：“请告诉我们停火何时开始；我们已经做好准备，并将接受停火。”当天傍晚，俄罗斯方面则对哈尔科夫的第五联合热电厂发动了袭击。他们还袭击了一家超市，造成三人死亡，近二十人受伤，其中包括儿童。
By noon, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was quoted as telling Axios that “the ceasefire announcement was news for me.”Nonetheless, Zelensky said, “Please tell us when the ceasefire begins; we are ready and we will accept it.”Late that evening, the Russians weighed in by striking the Combined Heat and Power Plant No. 5 in Kharkiv. They also hit a grocery store, killing three people and injuring nearly two dozen others, including children.
这仿佛让我们正在观看一部希腊悲剧——埃斯库罗斯的《波斯人》：开篇的合唱队曾吹嘘薛西斯一世如何跨越赫勒斯滂海峡，然而正是这次渡海行动，最终导致了波斯在希腊人手下的失败。
It was as if we were watching a Greek tragedy — Aeschylus’ “The Persians” wherein the opening chorus boasts of Xerxes bridging the Hellespont, only for that same crossing to become the instrument of Persia’s defeat at the hands of the Greeks.
周一，俄罗斯外长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫实际上公开蔑视了特朗普，宣称：“泽连斯基并未‘赢得’停火的资格，俄罗斯也不会被他的承诺所蒙骗。”
On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov essentially thumbed his nose at Trump, declaring, “Zelensky has not ‘earned’ a respite in hostilities, and Russia will not be taken in by his promises.”
特朗普的傲慢再次导致俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京让他以及他的特别代表史蒂夫·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳沦为笑柄。到周二，特朗普被迫承认根本不存在任何停火协议：“他们之所以同意，是因为我声称他们同意了。”自2025年2月特朗普在椭圆形办公室公开斥责泽连斯基以来（期间还得到了副总统JD·万斯的强力支持），普京实际上一直在利用特朗普拖延时间，以便在乌克兰军事行动陷入困境时重新站稳脚跟。
Trump’s hubris had once again led to Russian President Vladimir Putin making fools of him and his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. By Tuesday, Trump was forced to admit that there had been no ceasefire deal: “They agreed because I said they agreed.”Ever since Trump publicly berated Zelensky in the Oval Office in February 2025, with a huge assist from Vice President JD Vance, Putin has effectively played Trump for time as he tries to regain his footing in his faltering military campaign in Ukraine.
2025年8月的阿拉斯加峰会期间，普京也曾对特朗普采取过同样的策略，当时俄罗斯坚持其最大化的谈判立场。两个月后，他再次成功说服特朗普放弃向乌克兰提供具备深度打击能力的“战斧”导弹。
Putin did this same thing to Trump during the August 2025 Alaska summit, during which Russia maintained its maximalist negotiating position. He did it again two months later by talking Trump out of sending deep-strike Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
即使特朗普承认普京可能在耍他，他仍然任由事情发生，包括去年11月他接受俄罗斯的28点计划，实际上是在支持克里姆林宫违反国际法非法夺取乌克兰主权领土的行为。
Even Trump admitted Putin might be playing him. Yet he continued to let it happen, including when he bought into Russia’s 28-Point Plan last November, effectively endorsing the Kremlin’s illegal seizure of sovereign Ukrainian territory in violation of international law.
薛西斯只建了一座通向失败的桥梁。相比之下，特朗普每次被普京耍弄，就继续对俄建造新桥。
Xerxes only built one bridge leading to his defeat. Trump, in contrast, keeps building new bridges to Russia every time Putin outsmarts him.
截至目前，特朗普愚蠢行为的共同点在于：他不断上当受骗，接受普京的美国特别代表、俄罗斯主权基金负责人基里尔·德米特里耶夫所提供的愚人金。
To date, there has been one common denominator in Trump’s folly. He keeps falling for the fool’s gold being offered up to him by Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s special envoy to the U.S. and head of Russia’s Sovereign Fund.
德米特里耶夫试图从特朗普那里获得普京军队在乌克兰战场无法实现的东西：泽连斯基的垮台。
Dmitriev is trying to buy from Trump what Putin’s armies are unable to do on the battlefields of Ukraine: Zelensky’s downfall.
起初是普京试图收买特朗普。2025年8月，在安克雷奇峰会期间，普京与特朗普会面时签署了一项法令，重新开放埃克森美孚“重新获得[其]在俄罗斯萨哈林-1石油和天然气项目股份”的大门。
Initially it was Putin trying to buy off Trump. In August 2025, Putin signed a decree during the Anchorage Summit with Trump re-opening the doors for ExxonMobil to “regain [its] shares in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project” in Russia.
此后，一切都由德米特里耶夫主导。2025年10月，他提出修建连接美国和俄罗斯的白令海峡隧道。察觉到埃隆·马斯克可能成为盟友，他建议让马斯克的“无聊公司”获得这项价值80亿美元的交易。
Thereafter, it was all Dmitriev. In October 2025, he proposed constructing a Bering Strait tunnel connecting the U.S. and Russia. Sensing a potential ally in Elon Musk, he suggested that Musk’s Boring Company be awarded the $8 billion deal.
同年晚些时候，德米特里耶夫通过提出美俄联合北极项目，悬赏俄罗斯的稀土矿产、天然气和石油。这一诱惑既旨在分裂欧洲，也针对乌克兰。其资金部分将来自目前被欧盟冻封的3000亿俄罗斯央行资产。
Late that same year Dmitriev dangled Russian rare earth minerals and gas and oil by offering joint U.S.-Russia Arctic projects. The inducement was aimed at dividing Europe as much as it was leveled at Ukraine. Its funding, in part, was to come from the $300 billion of Russian Central Bank assets currently frozen by the European Union.
2026年2月，德米特里耶夫认为是时候大干一场了。他的所谓“德米特里耶夫方案”提供了价值14万亿美元的商业交易，涵盖能源、稀土矿产、北极开发和基础设施项目。特朗普只需通过迫使泽连斯基放弃其国家的顿巴斯要塞，在乌克兰和北约背后捅一刀。
In February 2026, Dmitriev decided it was time to go big. His so-called “Dmitriev Package” offered $14 trillion of business deals covering energy, rare earth minerals, Arctic development, and infrastructure projects. Trump only had to stab Ukraine and NATO in the back by forcing Zelensky to cede his country’s Fortress Donbas.
本月，德米特里耶夫再次出手。他向库什纳提出了一项新的北溪项目交易，并推动了一项提案，即由与美国关联的财团收购俄罗斯石油公司卢克石油的国际资产，该资产价值超过200亿美元。
This month, Dmitriev is at it again. He offered a new Nord Stream deal to Kushner and pushed a proposal wherein a U.S.-linked consortium would acquire Russian-owned Lukoil’s international holdings, valued at more than $20 billion.
具有讽刺意味的是，正如埃斯库罗斯的《波斯人》所体现的精神，正是由于美国对伊朗的战争导致柴油价格急剧上涨，这为俄罗斯提供了最新的机会来勒索特朗普。在11月中期选举前夕，特朗普因形势紧迫而同意解除对俄罗斯的制裁，并购买30万吨俄罗斯柴油。
Ironically, in the spirit of Aeschylus’ The Persians, it was the rapid rise in the price of diesel fuel, due to the U.S. war in Iran, that gave Russia its latest opening to shake Trump down. Desperate ahead of the November midterms, Trump agreed to lift sanctions on Russia and to purchase 300,000 tons of Russian diesel.
两党反弹立即出现。包括六名共和党人在内的十二名参议员要求特朗普终止该交易。
Bipartisan backlash was immediate. Twelve senators, including six Republicans, demanded that Trump terminate the deal.
与此同时，俄罗斯继续在冬季来临前轰炸乌克兰的能源基础设施。周三，另一座设施遭到袭击，导致60万乌克兰人断电，在某些地区甚至断水。
Meanwhile, Russia continues bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of winter. Another facility was hit Wednesday, leaving 600,000 Ukrainians without power and in some cases without water.
特朗普的傲慢正让普京玩弄于股掌之间。他最好牢记《波斯人》中大流士（薛西斯之父）鬼魂所说的话：“骄傲自大，当它成熟时，所结的果实是灾难，从而收获泪水的丰收。”马克·托思撰文论述国家安全和外交政策。乔纳森·斯韦特上校（退役）曾担任军事情报官员30年，并在2012年至2014年期间领导美国欧洲司令部情报参与处。他们是INTREP360及其在Substack上的INTREP360情报报告的联合创始人。
Trump’s hubris is letting Putin play him. He would be well-served to remember the line from “The Persians” uttered by the ghost of Darius, Xerxes’ father: “For presumptuous pride, when it has matured, bears as its fruit a crop of calamity, from which it reaps an abundant harvest of tears.”Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the US European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.