今天是十月份美联储加息再次被提上议程。通胀居高不下，市场正密切关注美联储主席凯文·沃什明天的公开露面。
Today is an October Fed hike back on the table. Inflation runs hot and markets watch out for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance tomorrow.
此外，与人工智能相关的股票再次暴跌，CoreWeave和甲骨文的债务和股权正面临压力。
Plus AI-linked stocks plunge again with the debt and equity of CoreWeave and Oracle under fire.
能源价格仍然居高不下，原因是人们对美国对乌克兰支持的怀疑，同时欧盟领导人正在会晤。这是路透社早间简报，为您直接从路透社新闻室带来未经过滤的市场新闻和分析。我是伦敦的迈克·多兰。
And energy prices stay high on doubts about US support for Ukraine and as EU leaders meet. This is Reuters Morning Bid, bringing you unfiltered market news and analysis straight from the Reuters newsroom. I'm Mike Dolan in London.
我是埃琳娜·卡萨斯。今天是星期四，10月15日。那么，迈克，通胀数据昨天冲击了市场，CPI同比上涨3.7%。现在，这一更广泛数据的涨幅大约有一半是由能源价格上涨导致的，包括汽油、柴油——这些是美联储政策制定者几乎无法控制的因素。但尽管如此，市场确实开始增加押注，认为美联储可能决定在本月晚些时候加息，而此前这种可能性基本被排除在外。那么，现在这是否成为一个现实的可能性？
And I'm Elena Casas. It's Thursday, October 15th. So, Mike, inflation data rattled the markets yesterday, CPI came in at 3.7% year on year. Now, about half of that jump in the broader number is down to the rise in energy prices, gasoline, diesel, things that Fed policymakers have little power to control. But nevertheless, markets did start increasing their bets that they could decide to hike rates as soon as later this month, whereas previously that was really off the table. So is it now a realistic possibility?
嗯，自从那份报告发布以来，已经过去了混乱的24小时，部分原因正是由它引发的。美联储会在本月按下扳机吗？昨天在公布那份高于预期的CPI数据后，一度期货市场又回到了50比50的局面。不仅是那样的高头条通胀率，正如你所说，核心通胀率也高于预期，而且在不同价格成分上表现得相当广泛。因此，美联储会在中期选举前几天就加息吗？
Well, it's been a really chaotic 24 hours since that report, partly triggered by it. Will the Fed pull the trigger this month? At one point yesterday after that hot CPI, the futures market was back up to 50-50. Not only that high headline rate, as you say, but the core rates above expectation and pretty broadly based as well across different price components. So is the Fed going to raise rates just days before the midterm elections.
它永远不会公开将这两件事联系起来，但我认为大多数人仍然认为这种可能性不大。今天我们看到，由于我们稍后将讨论的其他原因，股市在收盘前暴跌，那50比50的预期又被拉回了一些。所以现在大约只有三分之一的可能性。不过有趣的是，人们现在开始说，如果美联储本月不再加息，它会不会在12月改为加息50个基点？
It will never connect the two publicly, but I think most people think that's unlikely still. And we saw today as the stock market tumbled right into the close for other reasons that we'll talk about, that some of that 50-50 was drawn back. So it's about a one in three chance. One of the interesting things though is that people are now beginning to say, if the Fed does not raise again this month, might it go 50 basis points in December instead?
再次强调，这只是一种小概率事件，但你可以看到这种情况在年底期间所带来的紧张情绪。随着我们进入中期选举，当然还有年底，市场变得越来越波动。我认为美联储现在将密切关注更广泛市场的动态，因为我们正在人工智能领域看到一场震荡，这很可能在今天晚些时候占据所有头条新闻。
Now, again, that's an outside chance, but you can see the sort of nervousness that creates around the year end period. And it's getting very volatile as we move into the midterm elections and of course that year end. And I think the Fed will be watching very closely now what's happening in the broader markets because we have got a shakeout in the AI space that's probably going to grab all the headlines later today.
美联储政策制定者最近的言论相对偏向鸽派。玛丽·戴利昨天表示，美联储确实需要加息，但没有紧迫性。我们将在overnight听到凯文·沃尔什的讲话。他将在曼谷的国际货币基金组织发表演讲。市场真的会在那儿聆听他语气中的什么内容？
Recent comments from Fed policymakers have been relatively dovish. Mary Daly said yesterday that the Fed does need to hike, but there was no urgency. We are going to hear from Kevin Walsh overnight. He's speaking at the IMF in Bangkok. What will markets really be listening out for in his tone there?
我们一直在谈论这个。凯文·沃什说他不喜欢引导市场。而且必须说，他在泰国参加IMF会议的这次露面并不是正式演讲，而是被安排为一场炉边谈话。所以这将是一种问答形式。对他来说，这将是一种较为随意、较不正式的安排。但当他说他不引导市场时，只需回顾他在八月杰克逊霍尔的演讲。当时非常清楚，那就是市场和所有人开始看到美联储认真致力于将通胀拉回目标，并且很可能像九月那样加息的时刻。
We talk about this all the time. Kevin Warsh says he doesn't like to guide the market. And it has to be said, this appearance in Thailand at the IMF meeting is not a formal speech as such, it's a fireside chat it's been billed as. So it will be a kind of a questions and answers. So a less forward or less formal set up for him in that regard. But, when he says he doesn't guide markets, just look back at his speech in Jackson Hole in August. It was very clear that was the moment where the market and everyone began to see that the Fed was serious about getting inflation back to target and was likely to hike as it did in September.
所以对于一个不喜欢引导的人来说，他所说的任何事情仍然会受到高度关注。而现在市场如此波动，我认为他此刻说的任何话都会对市场产生影响。现在，他正在亚洲时间很早的时候发言，所以这将超出华尔街的交易时间。但你可以想象，整个亚洲市场都将关注此事。你知道的，这可能会成为一周的相当一个结尾。
So for someone who doesn't like to guide, there will still be a lot of focus on anything he says. And now it's so volatile out there, I think anything he say now will be impactful on the market. Now, he's speaking very early in Asia time, so that will be outside of Wall Street hours. But you can imagine that the entire Asian markets will be plugged into this. And, you know, it could be, it could be quite an end to the week.
嗯，你说了，我们在过去24小时里看到AI股票出现暴跌，特别是那些负债最高的公司。亏损的数据中心运营商CoreWeave在周三的交易中下跌了15%，而在亚洲，我们也在韩国市场看到这种反映，KOSPI出现暴跌。这是怎么回事？这一次是什么触发了这种情况？
Well, you said it, we've seen a plunge in AI stocks in the last 24 hours, particularly the most highly indebted companies, the loss making data center operator CoreWeave fell 15% in Wednesday's session and in Asia, we saw that reflected also in Korean markets, the KOSPI plunge. What's going on here? What's triggered it this time around?
嗯，我们在本周初就出现了震荡，如果你还记得的话，随后出现了一些稳定。在CPI数据公布之后，导火索基本上又被重新点燃了。正如你提到的，注意力集中在CoreWeave身上，不仅仅是其股价，其股价下跌了15%。另一家负债高企的超大规模云计算公司甲骨文也下跌了10%。SOX指数，即芯片制造商指数，下跌了4%。但问题不仅在于CoreWeave的股价，还在于其债务方面。
Well, we got the shaker at the beginning of the week, if you remember, and then there was some stabilization. After the CPI number, again, the fuse was relit, essentially. The attention was on CoreWeave, as you mentioned, not just its equity price, which fell 15%. Oracle, the other big, highly indebted hyperscaler, down 10% as well. The SOX index, the chipmakers, down 4%. But it wasn't just the equity of Coreweave, it was its debt side.
它有500亿美元的债务。它是大型数据中心建设商。它基本上处于正在进行的巨大AI建设的顶峰。而且它负债累累，你可以想象，如果借贷价格或借贷成本在我们之前围绕CPI讨论的那样上升的话，那么对于这个高负债的故事来说，情况就不太好了。但同时，也有一些关于AI领域内部发生的事情的信息在传来。我们从Anthropic那里得到了关于其收入增长情况的指示。
It's $50 billion in debt. It's the big data center builder. It is kind of at the, at the apex of the, of the massive AI build out that's going on. And it's heavily indebted and you can imagine if borrowing prices are going or borrowing costs are going up as we kind of certainly talked about around the CPI, then that's not a great picture for, for the indebted story. But, there is also stuff coming in around what's happening in the AI space itself. We got indications from Anthropic about how its revenue growth is going.
实际上，尽管它现在声称在最新季度已经实现盈利，因为它正试图围绕今年年底可能的IPO建立一些势头，但其收入增长仍然令人失望，我认为市场对其后季度的增长率感到失望。当然，这又反馈回整个AI产业链，涉及终端使用以及这笔巨额融资最终的回报。当然，如果你看看CoreWeave，它的信用违约掉期，就像甲骨文一样，目前备受关注，而且现在已经远高于一千个基点。
And it actually disappointed, even though it now claims it's a profitable company in the latest quarter, as it tries to build some momentum around the possible IPO by the end of the year, I think markets were disappointed at the at the growth rate in the later quarter. And of course that filters back to the whole AI complex about end usage and the eventual payoff of this massive financing. And of course, if you look at CoreWeave, its credit fault swaps, as with Oracle, are very much in focus, and they are now well above a thousand basis points.
因此，CoreWeave的债券价格，至少其债务价格，也面临巨大压力。正如我们之前多次讨论的，IMF本身也谈到了这些参与者之间交织在一起的复杂融资关系，即使只是其中的一小部分，一旦其中任何一人陷入债务问题，就会令人担忧。因此，人们此刻非常紧张，正如你所说，我们可以看到这种情绪在这早上的亚洲市场中得到了体现。
So the bond prices of CoreWeave, the debt prices at least, are under huge pressure as well. And as we talked about several times, and the IMF itself talked about the intertwined and complex financing between all of these players, a small group of them even, is worrying when any one of them runs into a debt problem. So people are very nervous at this moment and we can see that as you say right through the Asian markets this morning.
嗯，我们也应该简要谈谈油价，今天早上油价仍然居高不下。当然，本周的焦点一直是特朗普总统指责乌克兰导致柴油价格上涨。尽管有此争执，乌克兰仍在一夜之间恢复了对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击。但这实际上更多还是关于中东的问题，不是吗？关于霍尔木兹海峡，最近一周左右船只遭袭事件达到高峰，袭击次数甚至超过了整个九月的总和。因此，市场现在是否在押注，中东局势可能要等到明年甚至更晚才能得到解决？
Well, we should also briefly talk about the price of oil, which is still high again this morning. Of course, the focus this week has been on President Trump blaming Ukraine for the higher price of diesel. And Ukraine has resumed attacks on Russian refineries despite that row overnight. But this is still really more about the Middle East, isn't it? About the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on shipping reached a high in the last week or so. More attacks than were seen in the whole of September. So is the market now betting that the situation in the Middle isn't going to be resolved until perhaps well into next year.
是的，你可以在明年的期货中看到这一点。我的意思是，本周石油市场最重要的发展之一，实际上与全球原油期货布伦特原油近月合约的情况关系不大。而是六个月后的情况。因此你会看到，四月或六个月的期货合约也正朝着每桶100美元的方向上涨。我们之前观察到，在这场战争期间，油价曲线一直呈下降趋势。人们认为战争结束后油价会恢复正常。
Yeah, you can see that in the futures going out into next year. I mean, one of the most significant developments in the oil market this week has been less about what's happening at the front month of global oil futures in Brent crude. It's what's happened six months out. So you see that the April or the six month future is moving up towards $100 a barrel as well. Now, we looked at the oil curve kind of sloping downwards right through this war. People assuming that once it's over the oil price is normalized.
但事实是，曲线的远端正在上升。你说这是关于中东的问题，确实如此。那里当然存在巨大的供应问题，还有沙特-胡塞战争，胡塞武装昨天袭击了沙特阿美的总部。但柴油价格是最具政治性和敏感性的。而乌克兰局势确实非常、非常重要，因为你知道，特朗普对俄罗斯柴油实施制裁豁免的举动，在许多人眼中显得奇怪，尤其是在基辅的人们看来更是如此。
Instead, what's happening is the back end of the curve is moving up. But you say it's about the Middle East. It is. There's a huge supply problem there, of course, and the Saudi-Houthi war, Saudi Aramco's headquarters hit yesterday by the Houthis. But the diesel price is the most political and sensitive one. And this row in Ukraine is very, very important indeed because, you know, the bizarre move, bizarre in many people's eyes, not least those in Kyiv, of Donald Trump to give a sanctions waiver for Russian diesel was, I think, in most people's eye, to try and get the diesel price down before the midterms.
我认为，在大多数人看来，他的目标是在中期选举前试图压低柴油价格。但他可能不会得逞，因为乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他感到美国的这一举动让他感到被背叛。此外，根据乌克兰方面的说法，星链防御通信在美国方面也被中断了。今天早上，如果乌克兰再次袭击俄罗斯的炼油厂，那么在柴油等精炼产品方面，你又会遇到同样的问题。因此，特朗普的这一整套策略可能根本不起作用。
He's not going to get much joy because the president Zelenskiy in Ukraine has said he feels betrayed by the US move and also this idea that Starlink defense telecommunications have been disrupted on the US side, according to the Ukrainians as well. And this morning, if Ukraine is back hitting Russian refineries, you know, you're going to get another problem again in refined products like diesel. So, you that whole gambit by Trump may not actually work at all.
好了，今日推荐阅读，请查看迈克的专栏，了解AI投资热潮如何可能掩盖美国经济的裂痕。该链接在节目笔记中。
Well, for today's recommended read, check out Mike's column on how the AI investment boom may be papering over US economic cracks. That link is in the show notes.
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