[视频]沃什避免就十月份加息问题表态 曼谷——随着全球经济面临高能源价格和借贷成本上升的挑战，美联储主席凯文·沃什在曼谷向世界金融领袖发表讲话。
[video] Warsh Avoids Signal on October Rate Move BANGKOK—Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh addressed world financial leaders in Bangkok as the global economy grapples with high energy prices and rising borrowing costs.
沃什面临国内通胀压力，拒绝就美联储是否将在本月下旬的下次会议上加息提供任何信号。他对美国的金融表现持乐观态度，并称人工智能是国际经济的代际变革。
Warsh, who faces inflation pressures at home, declined to provide signals on whether the Fed would raise interest rates at its next meeting later this month. He projected positivity about the U.S.’s financial performance and hailed artificial intelligence as a generational change for the international economy.
以下是他在周五国际货币基金组织会议上的关键时刻。他与国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃进行了交谈。
Here are the key moments from his appearance at the International Monetary Fund meetings on Friday. He spoke with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
美联储主席既未支持也未反对同事最近的暗示，即央行对在10月27日至28日的会议上加息并不急迫。
The Fed chairman didn’t endorse or reject colleagues’ recent indications that the central bank is in no hurry to raise interest rates at its Oct. 27-28 meeting.
9月，美联储官员将利率上调了四分之一个百分点，至3.75%至4%之间，这是三年来的首次加息，当时美国正面临能源价格上涨以及由人工智能投资热潮推动的成本上升。
In September, Fed officials raised rates by a quarter percentage point to between 3.75% and 4%, the first increase in three years as the U.S. confronts rising energy prices and higher costs spurred by an AI-investment boom.
本周，在一份意外坚挺的通胀报告发布后，对进一步加息的猜测加剧。9月份消费者价格较去年同期上涨3.7%，高于8月份的3.4%涨幅。
Speculation about an additional hike intensified this week after an unexpectedly firm inflation report. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, hotter than August’s gain of 3.4%.
“我不会预判会议。我不相信在会议之前就说出我可能在今年余下时间的会议上会做什么，”沃什说。“这是美联储的新篇章，我们不再从事那种业务了。”沃什为美联储带来了一种新的、更为有限的沟通风格。他推动市场根据经济本身作出反应，而不是根据官方信号。
“I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings we have in the balance of this year,” Warsh said. “It’s a new chapter at the Fed, and we’re not in that business anymore.”Warsh has brought a new, more limited, communication style to the Fed. He has pushed the market to respond to the economy itself rather than official signals.
格奥尔基耶娃回应沃什时，开玩笑地暗示了因美联储表态较为安静而引发的不安。“你刚刚让半数或更多的听众失望了，”她说。
Georgieva, responding to Warsh, jokingly hinted at the unease prompted by a quieter Fed. “You just disappointed half of the audience or more,” she said.
[视频]沃什称人工智能将是积极的供给冲击 沃什将人工智能描述为他有生之年对全球经济“最具影响力的变化”。
[video] Warsh Says AI Will Be Positive Supply Shock Warsh described AI as the “most consequential change” to the global economy in his lifetime.
他表示，短期内前景可能会出现波动，因为人工智能支出的激增正在推高价格。“我们正在看到总需求的增加，”他说。“这只是事实。”但从长远来看，尖端技术将成为积极的供给冲击，他说，这将提升经济在不必然推高价格的前提下生产更多商品和服务的能力。
The immediate future may be bumpy, he said, as the surge in AI spending pushes up prices. “We’re seeing increases in aggregate demand,” he said. “That just is what it is.”But in the longer run, the cutting-edge technology would be a positive supply shock, he said, increasing the economy’s capacity to produce more goods and services without necessarily raising prices.
美国是人工智能繁荣的不可否认的赢家之一，科技巨头们正在全国范围内大力投入技术基础设施。韩国和台湾等几个东亚经济体也正因芯片和计算设备出口激增而受益。
The U.S. is one of the undeniable winners of the AI boom, with tech giants pouring money into technology infrastructure across the country. Several East Asian economies, such as South Korea and Taiwan, are also benefiting from surging exports of chips and computing equipment.
“在可预见的未来，全球经济和美国经济确实将获得巨大利益，”他说。他在赞扬美国经济政策时指出，这波投资激增主要由人工智能驱动，“并非偶然”，而美国的经济势头“在世界上绝非处处可见”。[视频]沃什表示通胀是全球性问题沃什在曼谷发表讲话，当时全球经济痛苦因伊朗战争导致的借贷成本上升和能源价格上涨而加剧。
“There really is a huge benefit to the global economy and the U.S. economy over the horizon,” he said. Praising U.S. economic policy, he noted that the investment surge, largely driven by AI, “isn’t by accident” and that the U.S.’s economic momentum is “certainly not found everywhere in the world.” [video] Warsh Says Inflation Is a Global Problem Warsh spoke in Bangkok as global economic pain mounts from rising borrowing costs and higher energy prices due to the Iran war.
伊朗战争前，油价约为每桶70美元，如今已升至约每桶105美元。通胀上升以及人工智能公司借款激增导致投资者要求政府债券提供更高利率，尤其是那些本已背负沉重债务的国家。
Oil prices have jumped from around $70 a barrel before the Iran war to around $105 a barrel now. Higher inflation and a surge in borrowing by AI companies has led to investors demanding higher interest rates on government bonds, especially for countries already carrying heavy debt loads.
正是在这些压力之下，国际货币基金组织预计2026年全球经济将增长3.1%，而去年这一数字为3.5%。
In part because of these pressures, the IMF expects the international economy to grow 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.5% last year.
沃什表示，通胀是全球各国共同面临的挑战，也是国际货币基金组织会议期间央行行长们经常讨论的话题。作为回应，各国政府正在使用本国工具采取行动，导致货币政策出现“同步收紧”。沃什称这是“积极发展”。但他表示，他很惊喜地看到许多国家在地缘政治不确定性加剧的近期形势中表现得相当好。
Inflation is a “common challenge” faced by countries across the world and a frequent point of discussion between central bankers at the IMF meetings, Warsh said. In response, governments are taking action with their own domestic tools, resulting in a “synchronous tightening in monetary policy.”Warsh called this a “positive development.”But he said he was pleasantly surprised at how well many countries have weathered recent geopolitical uncertainty.
“全球经济几乎到处都在展现出韧性，而这正是我五六个月前可能无法预料到的。”他说。
“Almost everywhere in the global economy is showing resilience that I’m not sure I would’ve predicted five or six months ago,” he said.
请写信至katrina.northrop@wsj.com联系卡特里娜·诺思罗普。
Write to Katrina Northrop at katrina.northrop@wsj.com