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美联储主席凯文·沃什警告人工智能“冲击”,承诺遏制通胀Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warns of AI 'shock,' pledges to contain inflation

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莉莲·苏万伦帕/法新社 via 盖蒂图片社Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP via Getty Images

美联储主席凯文·沃什警告称,人工智能支出的增加可能对美国经济造成“冲击”,并承诺将控制价格上涨,因为私营部门资金的涌入正在推动需求增长。

Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh warned of a potential "shock" to the U.S. economy delivered by a rise in artificial intelligence spending, pledging to contain price increases as a flood of private sector funds drives up demand.

“如果你是一名央行行长,你的职责就是努力确保物价稳定和充分就业,你必须认识到这是一次冲击,”沃什在泰国曼谷参加国际货币基金组织举办的会议时表示。

"If you’re a central banker, you’re in the business of trying to ensure stable prices and full employment, you’ve got to recognize this as a shock," Warsh said in Bangkok, Thailand, at a conference organized by the International Monetary Fund.

人工智能支出的激增在最近几个季度帮助提振了美国经济。理论上,芯片制造和数据中心建设等活动的投资激增可能会对消费者价格造成整体上行压力,除非这种需求能够被新增的商品和服务供给所抵消。

A surge in AI spending has helped boost the U.S. economy in recent quarters. In theory, an onrush of investment in activities like chip manufacturing and data center construction could put upward pressure in general on consumer prices, unless the demand is offset by a new supply of goods and services.

“显然,它首先冲击的是经济的需求侧,而不是供给侧,”沃什说。

"It’s obviously hitting the demand side of the economy before it’s hitting the supply side of the economy," Warsh said.

沃什于5月接任美联储主席一职,此前他曾就人工智能对劳动力市场和更广泛经济的潜在影响发表过看法。

Warsh, who took the helm of the Fed in May, has previously weighed in on the potential impact of AI on the labor market and wider economy.

周五,沃什重申了他对人工智能的乐观态度,称该技术最终将带来额外的生产力和财富。

On Friday, Warsh reiterated his optimism about AI, saying the technology would ultimately generate added productivity and wealth.

但沃什补充说,“从我们目前的状态到那个目标的路径很可能是一段非常颠簸的旅程。”

But, Warsh added, "the path from where we are to there is likely to be a very bumpy one."

“我们真的不知道这些新技术的市场结构会是什么样子,”沃什说。“谁将赚到这些钱?”

"We really don’t know what the market structure will be of these new technologies," Warsh said. "Who's going to be making the money?"

沃什还承认,美国经济正面临其他冲击,包括“战争和军事冲突带来的冲击”。2月伊朗战争的爆发造成了历史性的石油供应冲击,并导致许多国家的物价上涨加速。本周早些时候,美国政府发布的一份报告显示,随着中东冲突继续推高汽油价格,9月份通胀率已升至4个月来的最高水平。根据美国劳工统计局的最新数据,9月份物价上涨了3.7%。通胀率目前比美联储2%的目标水平高出超过一个百分点。

Warsh acknowledged other shocks faced by the U.S. economy, including "shocks of war and military conflict." The outbreak of the Iran war in February imposed a historic oil supply shock and caused an acceleration of price increases in many countries. A U.S. government report issued this week showed inflation had climbed to a 4-month high in September as the Middle East conflict continued to drive up gasoline prices. Prices rose 3.7% in September, according to new data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation stands more than a percentage point higher than the Fed's target rate of 2%.

位于得克萨斯州巴斯托的Nscale数据中心项目,2026年10月15日。伊莱·哈特曼/彭博社通过盖蒂图片社The Nscale data center project in Barstow, Texas, Oct. 15, 2026. Eli Hartman/Bloomberg via Getty Images

“与央行行长们进行讨论时,很难不对比意见、听到关于价格飙升的相同看法,”沃什在周五表示。

"It’s hard to be in a discussion with central bankers and not compare notes and hear the same thing about the surge in prices," Warsh said on Friday.

他随后补充道:“我听到世界各地的同事们表达了实现价格稳定的决心。我当然也传达了这种决心。”价格上涨促使美联储在9月将利率上调了四分之一个百分点,标志着自2023年以来央行首次加息。

He later added: "I’ve heard resolve from my colleagues around the world to deliver price stability. I’ve certainly delivered that resolve." Price hikes prompted the Fed to raise interest rates a quarter of a percentage point in September, marking the central bank's first rate increase since 2023.

提高基准利率旨在通过放缓经济和削弱需求来降低通胀,尽管该政策通常需要数月的滞后期才能见效。

An increase to the benchmark interest rate aims to slash inflation by slowing the economy and eating away at demand, though the policy typically yields results after a lag time lasting several months.

美联储政策制定者的下次会议将于10月28日举行,就在中期选举前几天。

The next meeting of Fed policymakers takes place on Oct. 28, just days before the midterm elections.

与他在以往公开场合的做法一致,沃什选择不对本月晚些时候央行会议可能采取的行动发表预测。

Consistent with his approach in previous public appearances, Warsh opted against issuing a forecast about what the central bank may do at its meeting later this month.

“我不预判会议。我不相信在此时就宣称我在今年余下时间的会议中可能会采取什么行动,”沃什表示。

"I don’t pre-judge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings we have over the balance of this year," Warsh said.

许多投资者似乎将沃什的态度解读为美联储可能在本月晚些时候维持利率不变的信号。

Many investors appeared to interpret Warsh's posture as a sign the Fed may hold interest rates steady later this month.

根据CME Group的FedWatch工具——一种衡量市场情绪的指标——截至周五早上,投资者预计美联储维持当前利率的概率约为86%,而周三这一概率约为55%。这表明出现了上升趋势。

As of Friday morning, investors peg the chance of the Fed maintaining current interest rates at about 86%, which marks an uptick from about 55% on Wednesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.