曼谷——美国联邦储备委员会主席凯文·沃什周五警告称，随着私营部门将更多资金投入新兴技术和企业，央行必须密切关注金融稳定面临的风险。
BANGKOK -- U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday warned the central bank must monitor risks to financial stability as the private sector puts more money into emerging technologies and companies.
沃什在国际货币基金组织和世界银行年度会议（在曼谷举行，将持续至周日）的一个场次上发言时表示，美国企业正在“投资一系列新技术、一系列新公司，并对市场结构的各个部分进行押注”。
U.S. businesses are investing "in a range of new technologies, in a range of new companies, with bets on different parts of the market structure," Warsh said during a session at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's annual meetings which run through Sunday in Bangkok.
他接着解释说，虽然找出“谁对谁错”并非美联储的职责，但作为一家央行，“我们确实希望退一步自问：如果发生各种不同的情景，对职责会有什么影响”，他指的是美联储实现物价稳定和充分就业这一使命的能力。
He went on to explain that while it is not the Fed's job to "figure out who's right or wrong," he said that as a central bank, "We do want to step back and ask ourselves the question: If various scenarios were to happen, what are the implications for a remit," referring to the Fed's ability to achieve its mandate of price stability and full employment.
他说：“我们还希望思考金融稳定风险，”并补充说美联储将努力确定是否存在任何“我们可以采取措施应对的负面尾部风险。对于这个问题，我们必须保持相当谦逊的态度。”在人工智能热潮的推动下，美国私人资本正被部署到广泛的技术和企业中。在指出下行风险的同时，投资的增长也对经济增长起到了支撑作用，沃什指出，投资的范围正在超越人工智能。他说：“我们有充足的顺风，正在赋予这个经济体一定的强度和持久性。”
"We also want to think about financial stability risks," he said, adding that the Fed will work to determine whether there are any "negative tail-side risks that we can do something about. We have to be pretty humble about that question." On the back of the artificial intelligence boom, U.S. private capital is being deployed across a broad range of technologies and companies. While noting the downside risks, the rise in investment has also helped support economic growth, with Warsh noting that the scope of investment is broadening beyond AI. "We've got plenty of tailwinds that are giving some strength and durability to this economy," he said.
他说：“在它冲击经济的供给端之前，显然会冲击经济的需求端。如果你是一名央行官员，从事的是试图确保物价稳定和充分就业的工作，你必须将其识别为一次冲击，但这是一次积极的供给冲击。我认为，从长远来看，这对全球经济、乃至美国经济都是一个巨大的福利。”美国投资委员会和全国投资公司协会今年7月发布的一份报告发现，私募股权支持的企业对美国国内生产总值的贡献约为2万亿美元，约占总额的7%。
"It is obviously hitting the demand side of the economy before it's going to hit the supply side of the economy. If you're a central banker and you're in the business of trying to ensure stable prices and full employment, you have to recognize this as a shock, but a positive supply shock," he said. "I think it is a huge benefit to the global economy, even the U.S. economy over the horizon." A July report by the American Investment Council and the National Association of Investment Companies found that private equity-backed businesses contributed roughly $2 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product, roughly 7% of the total.
明晟公司的研究强调，截至2025年第三季度，数据中心已成为机构资本进入私人市场的主要目的地，“其在基础设施、房地产和私募股权封闭式基金中的敞口总额达1220亿美元”。
MSCI research highlighted that data centers have become a major destination for institutional capital in private markets, "with exposure across infrastructure, real-estate and private-equity closed-end funds totaling $122 billion" as of the third quarter of 2025.
人工智能热潮引发了大量的市场波动。就在本周，围绕美国云计算提供商CoreWeave的信贷担忧引发了全球市场的科技股抛售。
The AI boom has spawned a lot of market volatility. Just this week, credit fears surrounding U.S. cloud computing provider CoreWeave prompted a tech selloff across global markets.
在会议期间，沃什避免透露美联储未来加息步伐的暗示，称“我不会对会议进行预判”。他补充说：“我不相信在今年剩下的会议上我会做什么，现在就说出来。”为了应对通胀上行风险，美联储上个月进行了三年多来的首次加息，将隔夜基准利率上调25个基点，至3.75%至4.0%的区间。美联储下一次会议定于10月27日和28日举行。
During the session, Warsh avoided giving hints about the Fed's future pace of interest rate increases, saying "I don't prejudge meetings." He added: "I don't believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year." To combat upside risks to inflation, the Fed last month raised rates for the first time in more than three years, lifting its overnight benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to the 3.75% to 4.0% range. Its next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27 and 28.
尽管本周公布的美国通胀数据高于预期，但市场对连续加息的预期已经减弱，一些理事会成员发出了鸽派信号。副主席米歇尔·鲍曼本周表示，没有必要采取紧迫行动，央行可以“花一些时间”观察市场和经济在9月加息后的演变情况。
Despite hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data this week, market expectations for back-to-back rate hikes have diminished, with dovish signals coming from some of the board members. Michelle Bowman, a vice chair, this week said that there is no need to act urgently, and that the bank could "take some time" observing how markets and the economy evolve following its September rate increase.
在沃什发表讲话后，市场下调了对10月加息的预期。根据芝商所美联储观察工具的数据，联邦基金期货隐含本月加息的概率约为13%，低于周四的28%。与此同时，12月加息的概率从66%上升至78%。
Markets scaled back expectations for an October rate hike following Warsh's remarks. Fed funds futures implied a roughly 13% chance of an increase this month, down from 28% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a hike by December, meanwhile, rose to 78% from 66%.
沃什表示，各大经济体正面临通胀这一“共同挑战”。沃什指出，虽然各大央行都根据各自的国内使命制定政策，但其决策会影响其他经济体。他表示，尽管面临的情况和政策工具不同，但世界各地的央行为了应对相似的通胀压力，一直在独立地收紧政策。
Warsh said that major economies are facing a "common challenge" of inflation. While every central bank sets policy according to their own domestic mandate, decisions affect other economies, Warsh pointed out. He said that despite different circumstances and policy tools, central banks around the world have been independently tightening policy in response to similar inflation pressures.
他说：“全球大部分地区的货币政策出现了同步收紧，这意味着没有搭便车者。我们看到了共同的问题，并正在采取行动。我认为这是一个积极的发展。”
"It was a synchronous tightening in monetary policy in most places around the world, and that means there's no free riders. We're seeing common things, and we're taking action. And I view that as a positive development," he said.