未来的战争将发生在外层空间 — — 而美国对此的后果尚未做好准备。
The future of war is in outer space — and the U.S. is unprepared for the fallout. Why it matters:
为什么这很重要：空间战争的爆发将通过破坏用于全球金融交易到海上导航等各种用途的卫星，使全球经济陷入瘫痪。它还将阻碍美国军队在地球上执行一些关键任务的能力。
An outbreak of space warfare would cripple the global economy by disrupting satellites used for everything from worldwide financial transactions to maritime navigation. It would also hinder the U.S. military's ability to conduct some of its key missions on Earth.
- 正是这种对卫星的依赖，使它们成为敌人的诱人目标。
• The dependence on satellites is precisely what makes them tempting targets for foes.
- 中国已经取得了重大进展，例如配备机械臂的卫星，可能用于瘫痪美国设备，以及能够使军事空间传感器失明的激光。
• China has made major advancements, such as satellites with robotic arms that could disable U.S. equipment and lasers that can blind military space sensors.
- 俄罗斯落后于中国，但美国官员担心它可能发射一种“可能对所有卫星以及世界依赖的空间支持服务构成威胁”的轨道核武器。
• Russia lags behind, but U.S. officials fear it may unleash an orbital nuclear weapon that "could pose a threat to all satellites and to the space-enabled services the world depends on."
他们说：美国企业研究所的空间专家托德·哈里森表示，“我们一直处于一种幻觉之中”，认为对手只会针对军事卫星，而让民用或商业卫星幸免于难。这种情况已经不复存在。
What they're saying: Todd Harrison, the American Enterprise Institute's space expert, said "we've been under the illusion" that an adversary would target only military satellites and leave civil or commercial ones alone. That's no longer the case.
- “在未来的冲突中，我们很可能会看到我们常常视为理所当然的民用和商业空间基础设施……遭到攻击，”哈里森说。“美国公众对此做好准备了吗？我不确定他们是否已做好准备。”
• "In a future conflict, we could very well see the civilian and commercial space infrastructure that we often take for granted ... being attacked," Harrison said. "Is the American public ready for that? I'm not sure they are."
- “我们很快就会得出结论：在太空中没有避难所，即使是在小规模冲突中也不例外，”他补充道。
• "We're quickly coming to the conclusion that there's no sanctuary in space, not even in a small conflict," he added. Threat level:
威胁等级：上个月，美国官员透露，军方在太空中拥有武器 — — 这是一则震惊性的承认，他们表示这是为了威慑对手。
Last month, U.S. officials revealed that the military had weapons in space —a bombshell admission they said was aimed at deterring adversaries. Yes, but:
但事实是：前美国国家航空航天局和国防部太空政策高级官员道格·洛弗罗表示，威慑效果“部分属实，但并不完全正确。”• 中国和俄罗斯长期以来一直认为美国拥有空间武器，他说。在未来的战争中，如果对手觉得他们无法在美国军队面前占上风，像GPS这样的基础设施可能会成为目标，洛弗罗补充道。
Doug Loverro, a former top NASA and Pentagon space policy official, said the deterrence effect is "partially the case, but not really true." • China and Russia have long assumed the U.S. has had space weapons, he said. In future wars, if adversaries feel they can't gain the upper hand against the U.S. military, infrastructure like GPS could be targeted, Loverro added.
当前形势：航天分析师警告，如果中国或俄罗斯摧毁美国卫星，该国将毫无准备。他们表示，国防工业缺乏进行反击所需的关键物资和人员。
State of play: Aerospace analysts warn the nation isn't prepared if China or Russia destroys U.S. satellites. They say the defense industry lacks the critical supplies and personnel to fight back.
- 普华永道和航空航天工业协会在一份3月报告的引言中警告称，航天工业“在峰值需求下运转火热，但表面之下结构脆弱” — — 换句话说，美国的航天需求正在超过设备供应。
• The space industry is "running hot at peak demand, yet structurally fragile beneath the surface," warned PwC and the Aerospace Industries Association in the intro to a March report — in other words, U.S. space needs are outpacing equipment supplies.
- 兰德研究者还表示，美国也可能缺乏在危机后重建其太空资产所需的熟练工程师。
• The U.S. also likely lacks skilled engineers needed to rebuild its space assets after a crisis, RAND researchers said. Zoom in:
聚焦：根据AEI的《太空数据导航器》，美国目前拥有超过13,000颗运行中的卫星，而十年前仅有670颗。中国拥有超过1,400颗卫星 — — 几乎相当于所有非美国北约国家卫星数量的总和。
The U.S. has more than 13,000 operational satellites, up from just 670 a decade ago, per AEI's Space Data Navigator China has more than 1,400 sats — almost as many as all non-U.S. NATO countries combined.
- 但是：这些数字可能具有误导性。中国和俄罗斯正通过扩大发射频率、壮大轨道星座以及研发反卫星原型机，在某些领域缩小差距。
• Yes, but: Those numbers can be misleading. China and Russia are working to close the gap in certain fields by expanding launch cadence, growing orbital constellations and developing anti-satellite prototypes. The bottom line:
结论：军方正在为太空战争做准备，但国家尚未准备好承受其后果。
The military is preparing for space wars, but the nation isn't ready for their consequences.
- 安全世界基金会太空安全与稳定首席主任维多利亚·萨姆森表示，美国可能“已准备好开战”，但她补充道：“我不确定我们是否已准备好在太空中结束战争。”
• Victoria Samson, the Secure World Foundation's chief director of space security and stability, said the U.S. may be "ready to start a war" but added, "I don't know that we're ready to finish a war in space."