加利福尼亚州萨克拉门托——在全国范围内民粹主义候选人和反亿万富翁情绪不断高涨之际，一项旨在对加州亿万富翁资产征税的竞选活动却陷入困境。
SACRAMENTO, California — At a moment when populist candidates and anti-billionaire sentiment are surging nationally, a campaign to tax the assets of California's billionaires is faltering.
反对者通过广告铺天盖地地抨击这项税收，称其将摧毁经济，而该提案的民调支持率也持续下滑。上个月的多项调查显示，该提案仅获得微弱多数支持，支持率徘徊在40%左右——这对一个需要扩大联盟基础的竞选活动而言，是一个危险信号。
Opponents are hammering the airwaves with ads portraying the tax as an economic wrecking ball, and the measure’s poll numbers have steadily eroded. Multiple surveys last month found it drawing only a narrow plurality, with support in the mid-40s — a warning sign for a campaign that needs to expand its coalition.
投票倡议领域的资深人士克里斯·莱曼指出了一个值得警惕的变化：独立选民如今反对这项财富税，却支持另一项针对公立学校的税收提案。他表示，这种情况“应该已经敲响了所有警报”。
Ballot initiative veteran Chris Lehman pointed to one telling shift: Independents now oppose the wealth tax while supporting a separate tax measure for public schools. That, he said, “should’ve rang every alarm bell on Earth.”
“我看到的民调趋势对‘赞成’一方来说都很不利，”莱曼说，他并未为任何一方的竞选活动工作。“而对‘反对’一方来说，这些趋势都相当有利。”去年年底提出的一项由工会推动的提案——通过向加州不到300名亿万富翁征收一次性5%的税款来抵消联邦政府对医疗经费的削减——自提出以来便引发了加州政坛的剧烈动荡。如今，随着选票陆续寄到选民手中，《第40号提案》的支持者正面临强劲阻力，其中包括由该州一些最具影响力的政治人物和最富有的居民组成的反对联盟。
“The trendlines from the polling I've seen are all looking bad for the yes side,” said Lehman, who is not working for either campaign. “They’re all looking good for the no side.”A labor union’s proposal to offset federal health care cuts with a one-time, 5% tax on the state’s fewer than 300 billionaires has convulsed California politics from the moment it was filed late last year. Now, as ballots are hitting voters’ mailboxes, Proposition 40’s supporters are getting knocked back by powerful headwinds — including an opposition alliance comprising some of the state’s most powerful political players and richest residents.
谷歌联合创始人谢尔盖·布林以及一群极其富有的加州人已经投入超过2亿美元以阻止这项税收，他们不仅反对《第40号提案》，还资助了两项可能使其失效的替代方案。州长加文·纽森数月来一直谴责这项税收，警告称它将损害加州经济并导致纳税人迁出该州。计划生育联合会、工会以及该州可能接任的州长哈维尔·贝塞拉等民主党重要盟友也持同样立场。
Google co-founder Sergey Brin and a group of enormously wealthy Californians have poured more than $200 million into halting the tax, spending against Prop 40 as well as by boosting two countermeasures that would invalidate it. Gov. Gavin Newsom has denounced the tax for months, warning it will harm California’s economy and drive taxpayers out of state, as have powerful Democratic allies like Planned Parenthood, labor unions, and the state’s likely next governor, Xavier Becerra.
支持者从未指望能与亿万富翁对手的支出相匹敌。但他们没有足够的资金投放超过象征性数量的电视广告，只能将电视广播让给对手，转而依靠一个由工会力量驱动的投票动员机制，而这一机制并不包括加州教师协会等地面动员重量级组织——该协会反对这项提案——以及加州服务业雇员国际工会，后者保持中立。
Proponents never expected to match their billionaire foes’ spending. But they don’t have the money to run more than a token amount of television advertising, ceding the airwaves to their opponents and relying on a labor-powered turnout apparatus that does not include ground-game heavyweights like the California Teachers Association, which opposes the measure, and SEIU California, which is neutral.
在加州，通过广告宣传活动与选民沟通至少需要数千万美元，因为该州2300万选民分散在多个媒体市场和广阔的地理区域中。这场竞选活动中，除了其发起方医疗工会SEIU-UHW之外——该工会的资金主要用于征集使提案获得资格所需的签名，并计划再投入200万美元用于广告宣传——最大的单一捐赠者是前科技工作者赛卡特·查克拉巴蒂，他捐了20.1万美元。
Communicating with voters through ad campaigns costs tens of millions of dollars at a minimum in California, whose 23 million voters are fragmented across multiple media markets and a vast geography. The campaign’s single-biggest donor beyond its sponsoring health care union SEIU-UHW — whose money went largely to gathering the signatures necessary to qualify the measure, with another $2 million advertising infusion planned — is Saikat Chakrabarti, a former tech worker who gave $201,000.
“基本上没有其他富人在出钱，这太糟糕了，”查克拉巴蒂在接受采访时说。他曾是众议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯的助手，今年竞选国会议员未获成功。“怎么我就成了一个全州性提案的第二大捐赠者？这太离谱了。”这项提案被广泛视为对财富税能否在美国获得支持的检验。支持者认为，在加州取得胜利将推动其他地方的类似努力，而在这个深度民主党的州遭遇失败，则可能削弱再次尝试的政治意愿。
“It’s terrible that basically no other rich people are putting in money,” Chakrabarti, a former Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez aide who ran unsuccessfully for Congress this year, said in an interview. “How does that make me the second-biggest donor to a statewide proposition? That’s wild.”The measure is widely seen as a test of whether a wealth tax can gain traction in the U.S. Supporters argue a victory in California would spur similar efforts elsewhere, while a defeat in this deeply Democratic state could sap the political will to try again.
“第40号提案最终将成为财富税能否作为一个政治议题行得通的真正检验案例，”查克拉巴蒂说。他补充说，如果失败，“那会把政客们吓跑。”即使这场竞选活动逆势获胜，它还有另一道障碍：第40号提案需要以比两项由亿万富翁资助的反制措施中任何一项都更大的优势获胜——这两项反制措施将使其失效，一项是审计州政府支出，另一项是禁止对股票等资产征税。
"Prop 40 is going to end up being this real test case of whether wealth taxes can work as a political issue," Chakrabarti said. If it fails, he added, "that’s going to scare politicians away from it." Even if the campaign defies the odds and wins, it has another hurdle: Prop 40 needs to prevail by a wider margin than either of the two billionaire-funded countermeasures that would invalidate it — one to audit state spending and the other to bar taxes on assets like stocks.
支持者可以指出一些势头迹象。他们获得了加州民主党和加州劳工联合会的重要背书，这使他们得以出现在该党的邮件宣传中，并能够使用该劳工组织的组织运作网络；参议员伯尼·桑德斯本月在旧金山和洛杉矶的集会上鼓舞了人群。他们表示已招募了数千名志愿者“队长”来传播相关信息。
Supporters can point to signs of momentum. They have picked up vital endorsements from the California Democratic Party and the California Labor Federation, which puts them on party mailers and gives them access to the labor group’s organizing operation, and Sen. Bernie Sanders energized crowds in San Francisco and Los Angeles this month. They say they have recruited thousands of volunteer “captains” to spread the word.
支持者认为，尽管反对派发起了猛烈攻势，该提案在多项民调中仍以微弱优势领先，这本身就说明了它具有内在吸引力，并指出数据显示未决定选民倾向于投赞成票。
Backers argue it’s a sign of the measure’s inherent appeal that it is still narrowly ahead in multiple polls despite the opposition blitz, and point to data showing undecided voters are inclined to vote yes.
“我们会遭到猛烈轰炸。这毫无疑问。但我认为有很多能量，”SEIU-UHW主席戴夫·里根说。“我们其实对自己的处境感觉很好。”尽管一些工会反对——它们认为该税收的设计狭隘，旨在让其发起者受益，最终将使加州损失重要收入——但劳工组织中的其他部分正转向支持该税收：洛杉矶联合教师工会与加州教师协会分道扬镳，予以背书，加州教师联合会最近也宣布支持。
“We are going to get carpet-bombed. There’s no question about it. But I think there’s a lot of energy,” said SEIU-UHW President Dave Regan. “We actually feel very good about where we're at.”Despite opposition from some unions — which argue the tax is narrowly designed to benefit its sponsor and will ultimately cost California vital revenue — other segments of organized labor are moving toward the tax: United Teachers Los Angeles broke with the California Teachers Association to endorse it, and the California Federation of Teachers recently announced its support.
洛杉矶联合教师工会副主席朱莉·范温克尔表示，尽管她也承认“胜算不大”，但工会成员们仍觉得必须支持选票上唯一一项旨在扭转医疗开支削减局面的提案。
United Teachers Los Angeles Vice President Julie Van Winkle said members felt compelled to back the only measure on the ballot that seeks to restore health care cuts, even as she conceded "the odds are against us."
“假如我是一名四分卫，比赛还剩几秒钟时，我会选择孤注一掷地传球，而不是选择放弃进攻。第40号提案就是我们的‘孤注一掷’之举，”范温克尔说道，“我们并没有数亿美元可用于竞选活动，我们有的只是会员们互相之间的宣传与动员。”
“If I'm a quarterback and there’s a couple of seconds left in a game, I'm going to throw a Hail Mary instead of downing the ball. Prop 40 is our Hail Mary,” Van Winkle said. “We don't have hundreds of millions of dollars to put into a campaign. We just have people talking to each other.”
尽管近期工会内部调查证实了针对里根的恐吓与暴力指控，但这些指控均被里根否认；即便如此，仍有大量支持者选择站在他这一边。在最近举行的桑德斯集会上，众议员罗·卡纳在台上称赞里根“敢于逆势而为”。
Those supporters have come on board despite a recently surfaced internal union investigation that substantiated allegations against Regan of intimidation and assault. Regan denies those accusations. And he has pressed on. At the recent Sanders rally, Rep. Ro Khanna lauded him from the stage for “defying the odds.”
“这并非为了我个人，”里根在活动结束后接受采访时说道，“没人知道我是谁。关键在于：我们是希望看到医疗体系走向崩溃，还是不想看到这种情况发生呢？”民意调查显示，第40号提案的胜算并不大；不过也有数据显示，选民们——尤其是年轻的民主党人——普遍认为当前的经济体系极不公平，导致亿万富翁们积累了过多财富与权力。
“This is not about me,” Regan said in an interview outside the event. “Nobody knows who I am. This is about: Do we want to watch our health system collapse or not?”Polls show Prop 40 faces a tough path to victory — but also that voters, particularly younger Democrats, believe a fundamentally unfair economy has let billionaires accrue too much wealth and power.
“只要能激发出大量倾向于左翼立场的选民参与投票，这项提案仍有胜算，”长期为加州共和党提供咨询服务的罗布·斯图茨曼说道，他本人并未参与该提案的任何一方竞选工作。“参与投票的人群年龄层必须比大多数中期选举时更年轻才行。不过我个人对此持非常怀疑的态度。” “向贪婪的亿万富翁征税”组织的创始人艾伦·戴维斯为推动第40号提案的通过提供了资金支持，他认为这场力量悬殊的竞选实际上是一次考验：对亿万富翁征税这一理念本身是否具有足够吸引力，能否战胜各种反对势力。
“It’s winnable if you got some kind of super-charged turnout that would skew left,” said Rob Stutzman, a longtime Republican consultant in California who is not working for either side of the measure. “Turnout’s got to be a lot younger, probably, than most midterms. But count me as very skeptical.”Tax the Greedy Billionaires founder Alan Davis, who has funded a complementary effort to pass Prop 40, described the lopsided campaign as a test of whether the intrinsic appeal of taxing billionaires can overcome the forces arrayed against it.
“我们的资源远不及反对派所能动用的资金规模，但我们的主张是正确的，民众也站在我们这边，”戴维斯说道，“我们采取的是一种游击战式的竞选策略。”
“We don't have the resources to come anywhere near what’s being spent by the opposition, but we have the right message and the public is on our side,” Davis said. "It’s a guerilla warfare type of approach."