英国国旗仍在耶路撒冷飘扬，悬挂在同一栋大楼上——这面国旗已经在那里飘扬了59年。10月8日，在经过数周的外交谈判后，以色列和英国同意将这座英国机构更名为“英国代表团”（UK Mission），而非“总领事馆”。双方都保住了面子，但他们之间的矛盾远未平息。
THE UNION JACK still flies in Jerusalem, over the same building it has been on for 59 years. On October 8th Israel and Britain agreed, after weeks of diplomatic wrangling, to rename this office the UK Mission rather than the Consulate-General. Both countries saved face but the fracas between them is far from over.
这场争执始于7月英国首相更迭、埃德·米利班德接任外交大臣之后。米利班德的首要任务之一就是加强英国对以色列在加沙地区发动的残酷战争以及其对被占领的西岸地区进行事实上的吞并行为的立场。在某些地区，以色列定居者在以色列政府的默许下实施了种族清洗行为；许多人（尤其是工党成员）认为，英国政府此前在这方面的态度过于软弱。
Their spat began soon after Britain changed its prime minister in July and appointed Ed Miliband as foreign secretary. One of his priorities has been to harden Britain’s position on Israel's brutal war in Gaza and its de facto annexation of the occupied West Bank. In some places Israeli settlers have been carrying out ethnic cleansing with tacit support from their government. Many, especially in the Labour Party, thought Britain’s government was previously far too soft on this.
9月8日，米利班德宣布对以色列在西岸的定居点实施制裁，法国和加拿大也采取了同样的措施。此前西方国家针对个别定居者或相关组织的制裁措施收效甚微。此次的不同之处在于，英国政府决定对“为非法定居活动提供支持、便利或从中获利的服务机构及企业”采取行动——这一制裁范围相当广泛，可能涵盖从政府部委到以色列最大的银行在内的众多实体。
On September 8th Mr Miliband announced sanctions on Israeli settlements in the West Bank, as did France and Canada. Previous such efforts by Western countries, targeting individual settlers and organisations, have had limited effect. The difference this time is the intention to take “action on services” and “companies that support, facilitate or profit from illegal settlement activity”. This broad brush might paint everything from government ministries to Israel’s biggest banks.
作为回应，以色列政府表示将关闭英国在耶路撒冷的领事馆（该领事馆负责处理英国与巴勒斯坦的关系），并驱逐所有参与加沙重建工作的英国人员。英国方面则威胁要进一步升级冲突，驱逐以色列外交官。最终，双方通过将英国机构的名称改为“英国代表团”达成了妥协，从而暂时平息了紧张局势。
In response, the Israeli government said it would close Britain’s consulate in Jerusalem, which serves its relations with Palestinians, and remove Britons working on Gaza’s planned reconstruction. Britain then threatened to escalate matters by expelling Israeli diplomats. The eventual compromise of renaming Britain’s consulate has cooled things for now.
英国针对以色列的新立场引发了两大疑问。首先，英国愿意采取何种程度的措施？米利班德表示，他需要6到9个月时间来起草实施制裁的相关法律，且这些制裁仅针对以色列的定居点，“不会波及与英国有着重要且宝贵贸易关系的以色列本身”。因此，一旦制裁落地，或许也不过是一种象征性举措。但另一方面，这些措施也可能意在对以色列造成实质性损害。
Two big questions hang over Britain’s new stance on Israel. First, how far is it prepared to go? Mr Miliband has said he will need six to nine months to prepare legislation for the sanctions, and that they will target only the settlements, “not Israel”, with which Britain has “important and valued trade”. The sanctions, when they materialise, may therefore be little more than a gesture. But they may also be designed to cause serious damage.
这种不确定性或许在一定程度上解释了为何美国至今尚未介入此事。“这绝对是个具有颠覆性意义的举动，”一位以色列高级外交官说道，“所有人都明白此举可能带来的后果，以色列的各大银行也忧心忡忡。”第二个疑问则涉及实施时机。英国外交部部分人士原本希望将米利班德的公告推迟至10月27日以色列议会选举之后发布。
This uncertainty probably explains in part why America has not yet intervened. “It’s a game-changer,” says one senior Israeli diplomat. “Everyone understands what this can mean and Israeli banks are very worried.”The second question is over timing. Some in Britain’s Foreign Office wanted to delay Mr Miliband’s announcement until after Israel’s parliamentary election on October 27th.
届时，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡仍需争取右翼选民支持，因此不会改变定居点政策；而选举之后，耶路撒冷的执政党或许也会发生更迭。不过，米利班德也有自己设定的政治时间表。
Binyamin Netanyahu, the country’s prime minister, will not change its settlement policy when he needs to appeal to right-wing voters. After the election there may be a different government in Jerusalem. Mr Miliband, though, has his own political timetable.
巴勒斯坦问题如今已成为英国政坛的一大焦点。在2024年的选举中，工党输掉了5个席位，败给了支持巴勒斯坦的独立候选人。与往年一样，今年也有抗议者在工党大会现场挥舞巴勒斯坦旗帜。不过据一位工党顾问透露，米利班德发布的制裁声明反而有助于将该议题从大会议程中剔除——这正是他期望达到的效果。他后续的举措同样可能受国内政治局势影响，尤其是如果政府决定提前举行大选的话。
Palestine has become a huge issue in British politics. In the 2024 elections Labour lost five seats to independent pro-Palestine candidates. This year, as in past ones, protesters waved Palestinian flags outside the Labour Party conference. But Mr Miliband’s sanctions statement nevertheless made it easier to remove the issue from the conference’s agenda—the result he was after, says one Labour adviser. His next steps might also be dictated by domestic politics, especially if the government calls an early election.
9月30日，内塔尼亚胡向英国发出了警告。在接受福克斯新闻采访时，他严厉指责英国：在以色列向英方通报了有关“伊朗策划”袭击英国皇家空军基地的情报后，“几乎第二天”英国就宣布实施制裁。
On September 30th Mr Netanyahu fired a shot across Britain’s bows. He lambasted the country in an interview with Fox News for announcing its sanctions “pretty much the next day” after Israel gave it intelligence on the “Iranian-sponsored” attack on an RAF base.
以色列情报部门对内塔尼亚胡破坏保密原则的行为感到震惊。长期以来，两国情报机构间的密切合作对双方均大有裨益；如今伊朗威胁到英国安全，更是让双方有了共同的敌人。不过，以色列政府内部也有人主张：面对英国进一步实施的制裁措施，应以暂停情报共享作为回应。一位以色列官员警告称：“那些怀有政治目的的部长们可能会使我们一步步走向中断情报共享的境地，进而损害两国的国家安全。” ■ 欲获取关于英国重大事件的深度专业分析，欢迎订阅我们的周更独家通讯《Blighty》。
Israeli spooks were aghast at what they saw as Mr Netanyahu’s breach of secrecy. Close co-operation between the two countries’ intelligence services has long served both sides well, and the prospect of Iranian attacks on British soil gives them an obvious shared enemy. But some in the Israeli government argue that further British sanctions should be met with threats to withhold intelligence. “Ministers with political agendas could put us on a slippery slope to disrupting intelligence-sharing and harming both countries’ national security,” warns one Israeli official. ■ For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in Britain, sign up to Blighty, our weeklyr-only newsletter.