戴维·埃比在启动不列颠哥伦比亚省的选举活动时主张，他需要获得授权来对抗唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战。经济学家警告称，他试图对高收入者征收全球最高税率之一的政策，将在这场贸易战的紧要关头损害该省的竞争力。
David Eby launched British Columbia’s election campaign by arguing he needed a mandate to fight Donald Trump’s trade war. Economists warn his push for one of the world’s highest tax rates on top earners would hurt the province’s competitiveness in the middle of that battle.
埃比承诺通过提高约19万加元（13.38万美元）以上所有收入的税率，来增加高收入者的税负，并提议对超过100万加元的收入设立新的税级。若与联邦税合并计算，最高边际所得税率将达到57.5%。
Eby promised to hike taxes for higher earners by raising rates on all income above roughly C$190,000 ($133,800) and proposed a new tax bracket on incomes over C$1 million. When combined with federal taxes, the top marginal income tax rate would reach 57.5%.
这项提议已成为一场以经济问题为核心的选举活动中的焦点。支持者表示，对高收入者征收更高税款将有助于巩固政府财政并为公共服务提供资金。但这一论点并未获得埃比预期的支持：距离投票还有九天的时间，他的新民主党在民意调查中处于落后地位。
The proposal has become a flashpoint in a campaign centered on economic issues. Supporters say higher taxes on top earners would help shore up government finances and fund public services. But that argument isn’t getting the traction Eby hoped: with nine days until the vote, his New Democratic Party is trailing in public opinion polls.
反对者称，此举可能在该省正依赖不断发展的科技产业和自然资源项目推动增长的关键时刻，导致投资和人才流失。
Opponents say the move risks driving away investment and talent at a time when the province is betting on both a growing technology sector and natural-resource projects to fuel growth.
“如果我们想削弱美国对我们经济的影响，首先必须充分利用我们已有的所有人才，”不列颠哥伦比亚大学经济学家凯文·米利根表示。“我不确定，针对那些在此地生活得不错的人进行打击，就是最好的策略。”尽管埃比已经拥有一个微弱多数政府，但他仍决定提前举行选举。他原本希望利用反对党保守党内部的领导层动荡，但这一策略迄今并未奏效。
“If we are to displace some of the American influence on our economy, that starts with making use of all the talent we already have,” said Kevin Milligan, an economist at the University of British Columbia. “I’m not sure the best strategy is to beat up on some people who are doing well here.”Eby called an early election despite already holding a narrow majority government. He hoped to capitalize on leadership turmoil within the opposition Conservative Party, but the strategy has not worked so far.
保守党迅速任命议员洛恩·多克森为临时领袖，多名叛离者也重返该党。根据民意调查汇总网站338Canada的数据，保守党目前领先新民主党四个百分点，如果今天举行选举，他们很可能赢得多数政府。投票日为10月24日。
The Conservatives quickly chose lawmaker Lorne Doerkson as interim leader, and several defectors returned to the fold. They now lead the NDP by four percentage points and would likely win a majority government if an election were held today, according to poll aggregator 338Canada. Voting day is Oct. 24.
安格斯·里德研究所（Angus Reid Institute）所长沙奇·库尔（Shachi Kurl）表示，她的民意调查显示，选民认为此次选举既没有必要，又带有机会主义色彩；而多克森（Doerkson）则迅速化解了埃比（Eby）试图将他描绘成特朗普盟友的努力。事实上，尽管埃比一直试图将他的竞选活动包装成保护经济免受美国关税影响的必要举措，但不列颠哥伦比亚省选民认为这一问题的优先级仅排在第11位。库尔指出，生活成本、医疗保健和经济问题都比这更为紧迫。
Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said her polling suggests voters view the election as unnecessary and opportunistic, and Doerkson swiftly neutralized Eby’s effort to paint him as a Trump ally. In fact, while Eby has tried to frame his campaign around the need to protect the economy from US tariffs, British Columbians rank that issue as the 11th most important to them. Cost of living, healthcare and the economy are all more pressing, Kurl said.
虽然库尔尚未就这项税收提案进行民意调查，但她表示，该提案可能会疏远新民主党（NDP）支持者的核心群体：温哥华地区30至40岁的受过良好教育的专业人士。
While Kurl hasn’t yet polled on the tax proposal, she said it risks alienating a core part of the NDP’s base: educated professionals in the Vancouver region in their 30s and 40s.
她已经听到了反对声音，有人表示：“‘我是一名专业人士，要还房贷，还有年幼的孩子，还要照顾整个家庭。’这些人并不是所谓的富人。”她说，“钱包问题对选民来说具有极强的动员力。”在加拿大房价最昂贵的温哥华，这种担忧可能尤为严重。加拿大国家银行（National Bank of Canada）估计，一个家庭需要年收入265,618加元，才能在温哥华购买一套中位价住宅的抵押贷款。
She’s already heard pushback, with people saying things like: “‘I’m a professional. I’ve got a mortgage to pay. I’ve got little kids. I’ve got a household to run.’ This isn’t so-called rich people,” she said. “Wallet issues are profoundly motivating voter issues.”The concern may be especially acute in Vancouver, Canada’s most expensive housing market. National Bank of Canada estimates a household needs an income of C$265,618 to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home in the city.
埃比则为自己的计划辩护称，这只是对最有能力承担者征收的适度增税，并表示该政策只会影响不列颠哥伦比亚省4%的收入人群。新民主党估计，到2028-29年，这项措施每年将带来10亿加元的收入。这些资金或许能帮助不列颠哥伦比亚省应对日益严峻的财政前景。
Eby has defended his plan as a modest tax increase on those most able to afford it, saying it would affect only 4% of BC income earners. The NDP estimates the measure would raise C$1 billion annually by 2028-29. The funds could help BC with a worsening fiscal outlook.
2022年埃比上任时，该省还有预算盈余。但此后，医疗、教育、公共部门工资和基础设施方面的支出大幅上升，而房地产市场的下滑、美国对木材征收的关税、连续几个毁灭性的野火季节以及消费碳税的取消，都对财政收入造成了压力。
The province had a budget surplus when Eby took office in 2022. Since then, spending on healthcare, education, public-sector wages and infrastructure has surged, while a real estate downturn, US lumber tariffs, a series of devastating wildfire seasons and the cancellation of the consumer carbon tax have weighed on revenues.
目前，该省预测在明年3月结束的财政年度将出现创纪录的138亿加元赤字，并且信用评级也接连遭到下调。
The province now forecasts a record C$13.8 billion deficit in the fiscal year that ends next March and has been hit with a series of credit-rating downgrades.
然而，一些经济学家认为，这次增税可能无法带来政府预期的收入。
Yet some economists say the tax increase is unlikely to generate as much revenue as the government expects.
卡尔加里大学的经济学家特雷弗·汤贝（Trevor Tombe）估计，如果人们的行为没有发生变化，这项税收政策每年将增加约7亿加元的收入；但一旦考虑到移民和税收筹划等应对措施，这一数字将降至约2亿加元。
Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary economist, estimates the measure would raise roughly C$700 million annually if no one changed their behavior. Once responses such as migration and tax-planning strategies are factored in, the figure drops to about C$200 million, he said.
根据不列颠哥伦比亚省商业委员会（Business Council of BC）的数据，该省的最高边际税率在全球范围内属于最高水平（具体排名取决于计算方法的不同）。汤贝指出，与邻近省份相比，不列颠哥伦比亚省的最高税率比阿尔伯塔省高出约10个百分点，比美国华盛顿州高出20个百分点以上。
The province’s top marginal tax rate would rank at or near the highest in the world, depending on methodology, according to the Business Council of BC. Compared with its closest neighbors, BC’s top rate would be roughly 10 percentage points higher than Alberta’s and more than 20 points steeper than the US state of Washington, Tombe said.
他认为，这会促使个人迁往华盛顿州，或促使企业将总部迁出该省——因为否则他们可能需要提高高技能员工的工资以弥补更高的税收负担。
That creates a strong incentive for individuals to move to Washington, he said, or for firms to relocate because otherwise they might have to increase gross pay to high-skilled employees to compensate for higher taxes.
从整体来看，不列颠哥伦比亚省的税收水平仍属于加拿大最低的省份之一（包括个人税、企业税、消费税和财产税在内）。不过汤贝表示，这并不能消除人们对高收入人群可能受到的经济影响的担忧，因为这类人群对税收变化更为敏感。
BC would remain one of Canada’s lowest-tax provinces overall by broader measures that incorporate personal, corporate, consumption and property taxes. But Tombe said that doesn’t eliminate worries about economic fallout from raising rates on higher earners, who are more responsive to tax changes than average residents.
这场争论不仅涉及税收政策，还延伸到了关于该省经济未来的更广泛议题上。
The debate extends beyond tax policy to broader questions about the province’s economic future.
米利根（Milligan）指出，人们对资源开发的支持力度正在增加，这为液化天然气产业的发展创造了有利条件，从而有望提升对亚洲的出口量。不过，不列颠哥伦比亚省的科技产业吸纳的就业人数超过了采矿、能源和林业产业的总和，这凸显了吸引和留住高素质人才的重要性。
Support for resource development has grown, helping clear the way for a wave of liquefied natural gas developments that will boost exports to Asia. But BC’s technology sector employs more people than mining, energy and forestry combined, Milligan said, underscoring the need for policies that attract and retain skilled workers.
“不列颠哥伦比亚省的优势不仅在于其自然资源，更在于这里的人才。”他说。
“BC’s strength is not just the rocks and the trees, but also the people we have here,” he said.