BANGKOK—Economic damage from high energy prices and rising borrowing costs is mounting globally, splitting the world into a new set of winners and losers as countries with limited exposure to the artificial-intelligence boom fall behind.

In the U.S. and a few other countries, surging investments in AI are helping mask the financial pain of higher costs, triggered in part by the Iran war and its widening fallout. But elsewhere, popular discontent is boiling over as governments get caught between spending more to help their citizens and servicing their spiraling debts.

In France, high-school and university students are protesting plans by the government to cut spending amid a selloff in the nation’s debt. Transport drivers in the Philippines and Indonesia have in recent weeks taken to the streets over high gas and diesel prices. Senegal last month alerted international bondholders and Chinese state-owned banks that it would need debt relief.

The International Monetary Fund, whose annual meetings in Bangkok this week bring together the world’s finance ministers and central bankers, says it expects the global economy to grow 3.1% this year, down from 3.5% in 2025.

That forecast remains in line with what the fund predicted in April, shortly after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. But growth is being buoyed by strength in a few countries that are leading the AI boom, while other nations, particularly in the developing world and parts of Europe, are getting hit.

Overall, just 32 economies are now responsible for 95% of global growth, down from 54 economies in April, the IMF said. Persistently high energy costs, especially as winter arrives in the Northern Hemisphere, could concentrate growth in an even smaller number of countries, it said.

“Growth across the globe is distributed unevenly,” said German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil. “We see the energy crisis taking hold and we see the challenges posed by artificial intelligence and our own development.”Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is due to have a public discussion on the forces shaping the global economy with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Friday.

Oil prices have jumped from around $70 a barrel before the Iran war to around $105 now, driving up inflation. That, along with a surge in borrowing by AI companies, has led to investors demanding higher interest rates on government bonds, especially for countries already carrying heavy debt loads.

In the U.S., inflation picked up in September, with consumer prices climbing 3.7% from a year earlier, marking the sixth month in a row of inflation outpacing wages. The U.S. is running the biggest budget deficit of any advanced economy, projected to reach 8.5% of gross domestic product this year, and has seen yields on its 10-year Treasury rise to their highest levels since 2002.

The jump in fuel and borrowing costs is combining with other economic concerns—including elevated import costs due to the Trump administration’s tariffs—to weigh heavily on voters ahead of midterm elections early next month.

Even so, the U.S. is better placed than many other countries to deal with those challenges, thanks to its large AI and energy sectors. The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.3% this year, unchanged from the IMF’s April forecast, and much faster than most other large developed economies.

Other winners in the current environment include Asian chip manufacturers such as South Korea and Taiwan, which is expected to be the world’s fastest-growing advanced economy with a 10.7% expansion forecast for this year. The IMF upgraded forecasts for both economies.

“Those who are part of AI will be better off,” said Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Thailand’s finance minister. “But those who are not in the supply chains will be worse off.”Energy exporters not hit by the wars in the Middle East, such as Nigeria or Guyana, are also reaping the benefits of high oil prices.

However, the IMF lowered its growth forecast for nearly half of the countries assessed in its October report, including for some of the world’s richest economies such as France, Canada and Saudi Arabia.

“Every major central bank is worried” about high energy prices also making other goods more expensive, Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem told a banking-industry group meeting in Bangkok.

Canada is expected to grow just 1.1% this year, down from the 1.5% that the IMF forecast in April, due in part to its trade war with the U.S.

Many investors are wearily watching France, whose debt the IMF expects to hit a record 118% of GDP this year. Elections next year, in which candidates from the far right and far left are expected to make big gains, are complicating the government’s efforts to cut a budget deficit expected to hit 5.4% this year.

“It’s important to stick to the commitments of reducing the deficit,” said Bank of France Gov. Emmanuel Moulin. As for lowering energy prices, Moulin said, European governments can do little beyond diplomatic efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, where two cargo ships sank this week after being struck by unknown projectiles.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, is battling its own problems, including a painful property-market crisis and high youth unemployment. The IMF slightly raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy for this year, when it is expected to reach 4.5%, but predicted a drop to 4% in 2027.

Poorer countries, even those recording strong growth this year, have fewer resources to buffer high energy costs. Many subsidize retail fuel prices to shield consumers from swings in the global oil market. But the longer oil prices stay high, the more governments have to weigh cutting the subsidies, risking popular unrest.

When Syria’s government raised the prices of diesel and gasoline in September, blaming global fuel costs, some of the first major protests since the Bashar al-Assad regime was toppled in December 2024 swept the country.

In Ethiopia, which is finalizing a Covid-era debt restructuring, cars are being turned away at gas stations as authorities preserve limited fuel for transport and agriculture vehicles. Some people are turning to donkeys to carry loads that would normally have been handled by motor vehicles.

donesia, fuel shortages this week spread to the resort island of Bali, with long lines and warnings that stocks had run out at multiple gas stations.

Destry Damayanti, the governor of the Indonesian central bank, said that with the exception of the Covid-19 pandemic, she hasn’t experienced such volatile global economic conditions since the Asian financial crisis. “Right now it’s become more complex compared to 1997,” she said, citing much faster trading and the spread of information via social media.

Fuel prices in Pakistan have surged by over 50% since the start of the Iran war. Last month, the government rolled out austerity measures to conserve fuel, including a ban on official foreign travel, and mandated early market closures, as well as a new fuel subsidy for low-income groups. The government opted against a broader subsidy as it faces a debilitating debt load, however.

“Quite frankly, we simply can’t afford it,” said Muhammad Aurangzeb, Pakistan’s finance minister.

Write to Gabriele Steinhauser at Gabriele. Steinhauser@wsj.com and Katrina Northrop at katrina.northrop@wsj.com