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特朗普的国防梦想命悬一线Trump’s defense dreams are on life support

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国防部长皮特·赫格塞思2025年5月20日在白宫与总统唐纳德·特朗普共同出席一场活动时就“金穹”防御盾计划发表讲话。Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks during a White House event with President Donald Trump on May 20, 2025 about the plan for a Golden Dome defense shield.

11月的民主党浪潮可能会彻底摧毁特朗普总统的标志性国防项目 — — 从庞大的导弹防御系统到核动力战舰舰队 — — 这些项目他曾希望能定义他在任期间的遗产。

A Democratic wave in November would likely decimate President Donald Trump’s signature defense programs — from a mammoth missile shield to a fleet of nuclear-powered battleships — that he had hoped would define his legacy in office.

两党议员警告称,特朗普提出的创纪录的1.5万亿美元国防预算方案 — — 包含这些倡议 — — 如果民主党赢得国会任一院的控制权,将面临来自民主党不可克服的反对。而特朗普的军事规划者也未提供任何替代方案,说明如果总统的预算申请落空,这些项目该如何融资。

Lawmakers in both parties warn Trump’s proposal for a record-shattering $1.5 trillion defense budget, which includes those initiatives, will face insurmountable opposition from Democrats if they win control of either chamber of Congress. And Trump’s military planners have offered no alternatives for how to fund them if the president’s budget request falls short.

特朗普一直在赞美他的宠物国防项目,称金穹顶防御系统“几乎就是你能拥有的最完美的东西”,并预测他的金色舰队造船项目将“比任何曾建造过的战舰强大100倍”。但国防支出上的潜在僵局不仅可能使总统的国防雄心停滞,还可能影响国家重建武器库存的速度 — — 这些武器库存因伊朗战争而严重耗竭。

Trump has crooned about his pet defense projects, calling the Golden Dome defense shield “about as close to perfect as you can have” and predicting his Golden Fleetshipbuilding project would be “100 times more powerful than any battleship ever built.”But the potential impasse over defense spending not only threatens to stall the president’s defense ambitions, it also could affect how fast the country can rebuild weapons stockpiles severely depleted by the Iran war.

“如果我们失去对国会的控制,那就是最后的晚餐,”参议员伯尼·莫雷诺(共和党-俄亥俄州)说,他是特朗普的忠实支持者。

“If we lose control of Congress, it'll be the Last Supper,” said Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), a Trump loyalist.

国防部长皮特·赫格塞思本周承认,如果没有资金,自主技术和空间防御的投资可能会受到严重阻碍。金穹顶项目总监迈克尔·古特莱因将军也警告说,如果特朗普预算申请中为其项目预留的17亿美元没有到位,该项目可能会崩溃。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth admitted this week that investments in autonomous technology and space defense could be severely hampered without the cash. Gen. Michael Guetlein, director of the Golden Dome, also has warned that without the $17 billion set aside for his program in Trump’s budget request, it could collapse.

但白宫似乎并没有应急计划。管理与预算办公室主任拉塞尔·沃特上周坚称,“我们不在为失败做计划”,并表示政府尚未制定替代方案来为关键的五角大楼项目融资,如果国会不支持白宫的计划的话。

But the White House does not appear to have contingency plans. Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought insisted last week that “we're not planning on failure” and said the administration has not developed alternatives to fund critical Pentagon programs if Congress doesn’t back the White House’s plan.

“这不是管理五角大楼的方式,”参议员克里斯·库恩斯(民主党-特拉华州)说,他是参议院拨款委员会国防小组委员会的首席议员,指的是政府缺乏其他资金计划。“我非常担心这对我们武装部队和国家安全的后果。”五角大楼和白宫未对置评请求作出回应。

“This is no way to run the Pentagon,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), ranking member on the Senate Appropriations Committee’s defense panel, about the administration’s lack of other funding plans. “I'm very worried about the consequences for our armed forces and our national security.”The Pentagon and White House did not respond to requests for comment.

问题的核心在于特朗普采取双轨途径争取总计1.5万亿美元的支出,其中3500亿美元来自另一种仅限党派的措施——即所谓的和解程序。虽然基础预算获得了一些两党支持,但这3500亿美元则不然。民主党承诺将阻止该计划,而几位知名共和党人则持怀疑态度,认为该计划难以通过。

The issue centers around Trump’s dual-path approach to getting $1.5 trillion in total spending, with $350 billion of that coming from yet another party-line measure known as reconciliation. While the base budget has some bipartisan support, the $350 billion does not. Democrats have promised to block the plan, and several prominent Republicans are skeptical it can pass.

“如果共和党在任一议院失去多数席位,[和解计划]发生的可能性就更小了,”莫雷诺说。

“It's more likely that [the reconciliation plan] does not happen” if the GOP loses its majority in either chamber, Moreno said.

但若预算协议远低于白宫的要求,也可能导致弹药项目受挫、工业基础增长受阻以及部队整体备战能力受影响。

But a budget deal that comes in much less than the White House’s request also risks derailing munitions programs, industrial base growth and broader troop readiness.

“拖延和不确定性越长,就会出现越多的替代性融资计划、时间表调整、项目延迟、生产提速放缓以及供应链中断,”前特朗普政府首任五角大楼财务主管伊莱恩·麦克库斯克说。“当前和未来的劳动力、纳税人以及国家安全都将为此付出代价。”

“The longer the delay and uncertainty, the more alternative funding plans, schedule shifts, program delays, production ramp slowdowns, and supply chain disruptions happen,” said Elaine McCusker, a former Pentagon comptroller in the first Trump administration. “The current and future workforce, the taxpayers and the nation's security pay the price.”

特朗普在其第二个任期伊始签署了一项行政命令,要求建设全国性导弹防御系统——后来更名为“金穹”——该系统将利用数千个基于空间、空中和地面的系统来抵御外部威胁。他表示,其主要目标是“保护我们的家园免受外国导弹攻击的威胁。”白宫还一直在推动对海军舰队进行大规模的政府和私人投资,以抵御威胁,而新型特朗普级战列舰正是这些努力的核心。此外,五角大楼上周宣布计划成立一个新的自主战争司令部,以监督人工智能、无人驾驶无人机和高科技机器人在军队中的整合。

Trump signed an executive order at the start of his second term calling for a nationwide missile defense shield — later renamed Golden Dome— that would use thousands of space-, air- and ground-based systems to counter foreign threats. He said its primary goal would be to “protect our homeland from the threat of foreign missile attack.”The White House also has pushed for massive government and private investments in the naval fleet to protect against threats, with a new Trump-class battleship at the heart of those efforts. And the Pentagon last week announced plans to launch a new Autonomous Warfare Command to oversee the integration of artificial intelligence, uncrewed drones and high-tech robotics across the military.

所有这些举措旨在现代化国家安全行动。但它们也需要巨额投资——根据国会预算办公室的估计,未来10年“金穹”项目将需要高达1.2万亿美元,而“金舰队”造船工作则需要2750亿美元。

All of those initiatives are designed to modernize national security operations. But they also require major investments — as much as $1.2 trillion for Golden Dome over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office, and $275 billion for the Golden Fleet shipbuilding work.

众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯和参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默批评他们认为过度强调国防开支而牺牲社会项目的做法。他们还成功地阻滞了这些预算计划,即使在两院均未占多数的情况下也是如此。

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have criticized what they see as an overemphasis on defense spending to the detriment of social programs. And they have successfully stalled those budget plans, even without a majority in either chamber.

由于国会于9月批准的持续决议法案,军事行动的资金得以维持至12月11日。但如果民主党今年秋天赢得任一院的控制权,他们很可能会尝试在新年之前阻止任何更大规模的预算协议,直至他们的成员坐上国会支出委员会的首席位置。

Military operations are funded through Dec. 11 thanks to a continuing resolution lawmakers approved in September. But if Democrats win control of either chamber this fall, they likely will try to halt any larger budget deals until the new year when their members are seated atop congressional spending committees.

前预算管理局国防事务官员马克·坎西安表示,如果民主党赢得一院或两院,并终结任何由共和党主导的和解方案的希望,他们将需要从残余部分制定一个新的、有凝聚力的国防预算。

Should Democrats win one or both chambers and kill off any hopes of a GOP-led reconciliation package, they will need to craft a new, cohesive defense budget from the remnants, said Mark Cancian, a former defense staffer at the Office of Management and Budget.

“基本预算和和解法案原本是设计成配合使用的,”他说。“它们的设计初衷是必须同时通过,否则就会出现很多漏洞。金穹顶和弹药就是其中两个主要问题。”共和党可能会推动更早采取行动,但党内内斗已经危及任何跛脚鸭时期的冲刺。

“The base budget and the reconciliation bill were constructed to go together,” he said. “They were designed so that you have to pass both, otherwise there are a lot of holes. Golden Dome and munitions are two big ones.”Republicans could press for action sooner, but GOP infighting has already imperiled any lame duck sprint.

“政府认为它还能获得第119届国会剩余时期的任何支持吗?”退休的常批评特朗普的众议员唐·培根(内布拉斯加州,共和党)说道。“除非他们改变方向,否则他们的议程就彻底完蛋了。”多位共和党拨款委员会成员已经警告政府数月,称其预算计划不可行,理由是即便在共和党内部也缺乏足够票数。但国防官员在最近访问国会山期间一直无视这些警告。

“Does the administration think it will get any support for the remainder of the 119th Congress?,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a frequent Trump critic who is retiring this year. “Their agenda is dead unless they change paths.”Top Republican appropriators have warned the administration for months that its budget plan is not feasible, citing a lack of votes even among the GOP. But defense officials in recent trips to Capitol Hill have ignored those warnings.

五角大楼财务总监朱尔斯·赫斯特三世上个月在与参议员的一次密会后告诉记者,该部门目前不在考虑其他方案。相反,他说,官员们正在完善他们向立法者推销预算的方案。

Pentagon comptroller Jules Hurst III told reporters after a classified session with senators last month that the department is not considering other options. Instead, he said, officials are refining their budget sales pitch to lawmakers.